Big Ten Power Rankings: December 14

It may be safe to say that the Big Ten is down this year. Currently only four teams are ranked in the top 25: Purdue, Illinois, Wisconsin, and Northwestern. Joe Lunardi currently has just six in his projected bracket: Those four, plus Indiana and Ohio State. There have been some good wins like Wisconsin over Marquette, Illinois over Florida Atlantic, Ohio State over Alabama, and Purdue’s wealth of victories. There have also been some real bad losses:

Michigan lost at home to Long Beach State

Minnesota lost to San Francisco

Maryland lost to Davidson and UAB

Penn State lost to Bucknell

Rutgers lost to Princeton

Michigan State is under .500 after starting the year in the top 5.

Northwestern lost to Chicago State

That last one is a real head scratcher. Chicago State is living the vagabond existence of being the lone Division I independent. They take games where they can get them. They have 16 true road games this year, including an upcoming eight game stretch from December 22 to January 15 where they go to Wisconsin, Cal Baptist, DePaul, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, UTEP, Fairleigh Dickinson, and Stetson in that order. They have dropped games to UT Martin, Delaware State, Cal State Northridge, and Northern Colorado so far.

Still, they walked into the arena where 12 days earlier arguably the best team in the country lost in overtime, and they won.

It is the latest sign that the Big Ten might be bad this year. The league got eight teams into last year’s tournament, nine in 2022 and 2021, and might have gotten 10 (or more) if there had been a 2020 tournament. It had eight in 2019This year it might struggle to get six.

The conference does have a true national contender in Purdue, but the rest of the league is shaky.

The Favorite

1. Purdue (9-1, 1-1) – The Boilers have not only proven themselves as the Big Ten’s best, they might be the best in the country. With a win over Arizona on Saturday they will have five tier 1 NET victories. Right now, no one else has more than two. The one loss is looking like a true “Man, it’s just college basketball” type of loss, as Northwestern basically had a perfect second half and overtime while Purdue faltered big time, leading to a narrow OT loss. Purdue has done enough in the non-conference to earn a No. 1 seed to the NCAAs as long as it wins the Big Ten again.

The Main Challenger

2. Illinois (7-2, 1-0) – The Fighting Illini have looked good. The losses have been to Marquette and Tennessee (both of whom Purdue has beaten), but they were competitive. They have a nice win over Florida Atlantic and have mostly taken care of their business in the league. They have a chance to make a statement and steal a game at Mackey in a few weeks since that is the one conference game Purdue has without the Paint Crew. The Boilers always struggle in that game, too. If they pull that off, Purdue officially has competition in the league.

Solid NCAA Teams

3. Wisconsin (7-3, 1-0) – I am putting the Badgers here because they have that really good win over Marquette. They went out to Arizona and lost by 25 in their last outing, but the other losses were to Tennessee and Providence. They were dominant in a win at Michigan State to start conference play too. The schedule is favorable for them to work into the top 20 before a January 10 game at Ohio State.

4. Ohio State (8-2, 1-1) – A week ago I would have had Ohio State at least at No. 3, if not No. 2. The strange loss at Penn State, who is apparently their kryptonite, slid them behind the Badgers. Their win over Alabama looks really good, and the only other loss was to Texas A&M.

Looking Bubbly

5. Northwestern (7-2, 1-0) – The Wildcats now have the bookend of probably the best win in America (over Purdue) and the worst loss (to Chicago State). Last night’s home defeat caused their NET rating to plummet to 84. Their only other loss was to Mississippi State on a neutral floor. They have a decent win over Dayton, but losing at home to a sub-300 team less than two weeks after knocking off No. 1 is baffling.

6. Indiana (7-2, 2-0) – The Hoosiers are the only team at 2-0 in the league after beating Maryland and Michigan. They have lost their only games against ranked competition in UConn and Auburn, both handily. They struggled in games against bad teams in FGCU, Army, and Wright State. Still, they are winning without a bad loss. They have the look of one of those teams that has a bunch of narrow wins with a handful of upsets that gets them into the tournament.

7. Nebraska (8-2, 1-1) – Nebraska is the only Power 5 team that has never won an NCAA Tournament game. They were also the league’s last undefeated team before losing at home to a top 10 Creighton. Sure, their best win right now is Oregon State, but they are at least much better than they have been in recent seasons. They also just handled business at home against Michigan State. If they can win at Kansas State this weekend they will be in the NCAA discussion.

Is it the Schedule?

8. Michigan State (4-5, 0-2) – For now, I will give Michigan State some leeway. The Spartans have played a brutal schedule with losses to Duke, Arizona, Baylor, and a James Madison team that has proven itself. The loss at Nebraska is not horrible. Still, they are the lone team under .500 overall. They have too much talent to be this bad. Their streak of 25 consecutive tournament appearances is in danger.

Various Forms of Bad

9. Michigan (5-5, 1-1) – The Wolverines are technically the fifth best team in the league in the NET at 64, but they lost five out of six before rebounding to win at Iowa on Sunday. That included a home loss to Long Beach State. They did challenge Memphis and Oregon in close losses.

10. Minnesota (8-3, 1-1) – The Gophers got a nice conference win at home against Nebraska and have blown out much of a bad schedule. Even the San Francisco loss wasn’t horrid, as the Dons are a top 50 team and it came in San Francisco. Outside of Nebraska there is not a notable win, as the other seven victories are on Quad 4.

11. Rutgers (6-3, 0-1) – The Scarlet Knights saved some face by winning at Seton Hall on Saturday. That was after consecutive losses to Illinois an Wake Forest by a combined 37 points. The loss to Princeton statistically isn’t bad, as the Tigers are 9-1 with a NET of 22.

12. Iowa (5-5, 0-2) – Fran McCaffery has more technical fouls (three) in Big Ten play than Iowa has had conference games. He continues to be the anti-Ferentz in that his teams are very talented offensively, but they are completely immune to playing defense. Their best win is a Quad 3 win over Seton Hall in San Diego.

13. Maryland (6-4, 1-1) – The Terrapins get the edge over Penn State for last place because of the head-to-head win over the Nittany Lions. It came in overtime, but winning is winning. Other than that, Maryland has been quite unimpressive for a team expected to be in the league’s upper half. They only scored 40 in a loss to Villanova. Purdue still needs to be wary when it goes to College Park on January 2.

14. Penn State (5-5, 1-1) – After a 4-0 start against a very weak slate Penn State went 0-3 in the ESPN Events invitational over Thanksgiving, losing to Texas A&M, Butler, and VCU. They then came home and lost to a 3-7 Bucknell team. They did beat Ohio State on Saturday, so never underestimate their power to make a team completely fall asleep in their dead home arena.

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