Big Ten Power Rankings: February 16

After Purdue lost at Ohio State on Sunday it appeared we might have a race for the Big Ten crown. The Boilers saw their lead in the conference get trimmed to a single game in the loss column, and second place Illinois conveniently had a home game against Purdue in its back pocket. If both teams had managed to hold serve it meant the game on March 5th in Champaign could have huge implications.

With 50 seconds left the Fighting Illini were leading Penn State by 7 and had the basketball last night. The game was completely in hand.

That is when Illinois completely and utterly collapsed.

They missed a layup, gave up a three, turned it over, gave up a layup, missed two free throws, then fouled a three-point shooter. It was a stunning collapse that basically handed Purdue the Big Ten title.

The math is now simple for Purdue: Any combination of Purdue wins and Illinois losses that adds up to three will give them at least a share of the Big Ten title. That means Purdue would have to lose at least one home game in order to not win at least a share of the conference. Should Purdue win tonight vs. Rutgers and Sunday at Michigan it might have the conference title locked up by the time it takes the floor next Saturday against Michigan State.

Goal one for the season is nearly achieved. The 26th Big Ten title is within Purdue's grasp. You can't cut the nets yet, but you can at least start looking for a ladder and some scissors.

Awaiting Coronation

1. Purdue Boilermakers (23-3, 12-3) – Purdue would need to fall completely apart at this point to not win the conference. It's next two games are against teams with a combined 9-20 league record. The Sunday loss at Ohio State proves that absolutely nothing is guaranteed in this league, but the Boilermakers are a big favorite in the next two. It they win those and Illinois drops another game at home against Iowa or Minnesota or at Wisconsin the afternoon of March 2, Purdue will play Michigan State next Saturday for the outright title.

Step one is Rutgers tonight, a team that has given Purdue fits in recent seasons and has won two of its last three trips to West Lafayette.

NCAA Tourney Teams

2. Illinois Fighting Illini (19-7, 10-5) – What on earth was THAT? A few weeks ago the Illini nearly blew a game at home to Nebraska, only to recover and win in overtime. Last night, in the loss to Penn State, it literally gave a game away that it had won. There is no doubt this is a talented team, but they have been very shaky in the final five minutes of games lately.

3. Northwestern Wildcats (18-8, 9-6) – The loss at Rutgers last Thursday was a bit of a surprise, but Northwestern recovered to win at Indiana on Sunday and stay solidly in the NCAA field. They now have five games left, three at home, and should be able to take care of business for a second straight top four finish in the league. Chris Collins has done a great job in Evanston.

4. Wisconsin Badgers (18-9, 10-6) – The Badgers lost in overtime at Iowa, but recovered to edge Maryland at home on Tuesday. They still have not been great since losing at Nebraska, but at least they have leveled off a little. They are 2-5 in their last seven, but have the weekend off before going to Indiana on Tuesday.

5. Nebraska Cornhuskers (19-8, 9-7) – Nebraska needed a road win and went out and got one last night at Indiana. Yeah, the Hoosiers are not going to the tournament, but the Cornhuskers needed at least one conference win away from home to firm up their profile. That should be enough now, especially since they can get a second at Michigan on the last day of the regular season.

6. Michigan State Spartans (17-10, 9-7) - By winning three straight it was looking like the Spartans were finally settling in. Then they lost at home to Iowa by 7. This is still probably a tournament team, as their NET rating is 24, but they have severely underachieved to this point. When the conference schedule came out it looked like the Michigan State at Purdue game on March 2nd would have league and national implications. Now it is possible Purdue has everything wrapped up before tipoff.

Trying to Punch Its Way Out of the Coffin

7. Iowa Hawkeyes (16-11, 8-8) – Last week the Hawkeyes' NCAA chances were DOA. They were two games under .500 in the league and they lacked a single Tier 1 win. now they have three of them. Minnesota played its way to 73, meaning Iowa's win in January in the Barn moved up a tier. the Hawkeyes then beat Wisconsin at home and won at Michigan State. There is still a lot of work to do, but a win at Illinois on Saturday could boost the Hawkeyes into the field. Three of their final four games are potential tier 1 wins.

NIT bound

8. Minnesota Golden Gophers (16-9, 7-7) - Minnesota was a half away from a tremendous upset and boost to their profile, as they led Purdue in Mackey Arena by 10 in the second half last week. They came back to beat Rutgers and they host Ohio State tonight. With six games left they probably need to go 5-1 to even get close to the field, but trips to Nebraska, Illinois, and Northwestern give them some ammo for it.

Fighting for the NIT

9. Ohio State Buckeyes (15-11, 5-10) – When you beat the No. 2 team in the country with an interim coach you get moved up. Ohio State is at 66 in the NET and they have to go to Minnesota, Michigan State, and Rutgers while hosting Nebraska and Michigan. If they win two they'll at least be in the NIT. If they somehow win all five...

10. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (14-11, 6-8) – Rutgers isn't good, but they are more than happy to drag a team into a 65-60 rock fight, so Purdue should expect no less tonight. They beat Northwestern last Thursday and it was the fourth striaght game they held an opponent to 60 points or less. It would be nice to see Purdue put this one to bed early tonight.

11. Penn State Nittany Lions (14-13, 7-8) – Penn State needs to move back to Rec Hall and turn the Bryce Jordan Mausoleum into something else. Last night they actually had a home court advantage and it made a difference in the comeback vs. Illinois. If the school cared about basketball at all they would move back.

12. Maryland Terrapins (14-13, 6-10) - Maryland remains at 71 in the NET, thus on tier 1 for Purdue, as of now. They have still lost 5 of 6, with the last two being games where they could not convert late. They probably need three more wins to feel safe for the NIT.

Looking for a Stamp to Mail it in.

13. Indiana Hoosiers (14-12, 6-9) - The Hoosiers are done. They had two home games against Northwestern and Nebraska and fell behind big in both before trying to come back. They are now one of two teams in the Big Ten with a NET rating in the triple digits. If they lose at Penn State on Saturday they might as well hit "Sim to Complete" and start sliding into Dusty May's DMs so the IU Basketball Head Coaching Hype Cycle (R) can begin anew. FTR, the cost of the stamp to mail it in would be $12.6 million owed to Mike Woodson.

14. Michigan Wolverines (8-18, 3-12) – I am a Purdue fan. I will always be on guard at all times, especially late in the season. That said, should the Boilers win tonight they need to go to Ann Arbor and be dominant. Don't mess around. Losing to Michigan would be a horrible loss. Beating No. 3 Purdue at home is the one thing that can even remotely redeem Juwan Howard at this point.

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