Covering the Tracks: FAU
Welcome to the fourth year, third edition of Covering the Tracks. This column is a weekly preview of the upcoming Purdue game through the lens of gambling metrics. The age-old saying is that Vegas always wins, so building upon that, we have decided to break down the game using pieces of information Vegas so graciously provides us. Whether you choose to dabble in sports gambling, or you’re just an avid Purdue fan who craves any piece of content on the Boilers leading up to game time (or both!), I hope this article can provide some helpful insight to preview the game. For those unfamiliar with sports gambling terminology, there is a glossary at the end. I use lines provided by DraftKings sportsbook, but in no way, shape, or form should this be an endorsement of their sportsbook. Use whichever you feel most comfortable with, and I certainly encourage you to shop lines at different books once you have decided how to bet. New to this year, I will be adding an “Executive Summary” at the start with a quick synopsis. For this week, we look at the 2022 Florida Atlantic Owls.
Prior Week Recap
The article went 1-1 with Syracuse covering, but the over hit by a half point. Vegas could not have been closer here with Syracuse covering by 1.5 as well. The article almost nails the score prediction just 1 point off from Syracuse, and 2 points off from Boilers. The article moves to 2-2 on the year.
2022 Season ATS Records
Purdue: 1-2 ATS, Overs are 3-0.
Florida Atlantic: 2-2 ATS, Overs are 1-3.
Betting Numbers
Current Betting breakdowns as of 9:00am on 9/23/22:
Current spread: Purdue -17.5 (Opened -19).
Moneyline: Purdue -900, Florida Atlantic +625
1H Spread: Purdue -10, O/U 31
Over/Under: 59 (Opened 60)
Florida Atlantic O/U: 20.5 (Over -105, Under -125)
Purdue O/U: 38.5 (Over -110, Under -120)
Betting Percentage Breakdown (As of 9/15/22 at 9:00am)
Bets: 69% on Purdue, 42% on over
Money: 41% on Purdue, 2% on over
Current Handle Size: roughly 4,000 bets
Executive Summary
The drastic spread movement, combined with the total moving 2.5 points down infers that a Purdue player will likely be ruled out for the game Saturday. Given that the total moved down, it is probably safe to assume this will be an offensive player. A spread simply does not move that many points on a Thursday at 4:00pm. Purdue had taken money all week, and since yesterday afternoon, we have seen a switch with almost only FAU money coming in. The trends for this game are not significant, but Purdue has done well scoring points at home and normally plays well after a loss. FAU has struggled to score in non-conference games and really have not fared well. I would expect the spread and total to move toward FAU and down, respectively. There will be value on Purdue closer to Saturday game time.
Trend Analysis for Florida Atlantic
· Purdue is 9-10 ATS as a home favorite under Brohm. Purdue covered as a home favorite against Indiana State in this spot.
· Purdue is 11-6 ATS under Brohm in non-conference games. Purdue covered against Indiana State, but failed to cover against Syracuse last week.
· Purdue is 17-10 ATS under Brohm after a loss. Once again, Purdue covered this year against Indiana State in this spot. On average, Purdue has covered in this spot by 3.1 points.
· The over is 11-8 in games under Jeff Brohm where Purdue is a home favorite. The over hit when the Boilers hosted Indiana State this year. On average, the over hits by .2 points.
· In Purdue non-conference games under Brohm, the over is 9-8. The over is 2-0 in Boiler games against non-conference opponents this year.
· In Purdue games under Brohm, after a loss, the over is 12-14-1. The under has hit in this spot by an average of 1.1 points.
·Jeff Brohm is 1-0 ATS and SU against Willie Taggart. The two met in the 2015 Miami Beach Bowl when Jeff Brohm’s Hilltoppers beat South Florida 45-35 as 3 point favorites.
·Willie Taggart has been at the helm for Florida Atlantic since 2020. Since that time, Florida Atlantic is 2-3 ATS as an away underdog. FAU was 1-3 ATS in this spot in 2021, failing to cover by an average of 13.8 points.
· Florida Atlantic is 3-6-1 ATS in non-conference play under Willie Taggart. Florida Atlantic has failed to cover these games by an average of 3.7 points. Florida Atlantic is 1-2 ATS in this spot this year.
· FAU is 5-5 ATS under Taggart after a loss. They are 1-0 this year after a loss, with the only result being a beatdown of Charlotte.
· Since 2020, the over is 1-4 in games where Florida Atlantic is an away underdog.
· In Florida Atlantic non-conference games under Coach Taggart, the over is 2-8, with the under hitting by an average of 6.9 points.
· The over is 3-7 in Florida Atlantic games, under Taggart, after a loss.
Miscellaneous Factors
· The Hilltoppers. Willie Taggart and Jeff Brohm share some connections beyond the 2015 Miami Beach Bowl. Taggart was the head coach at Western Kentucky from 2010-2012 prior to taking the South Florida job. Bobby Petrino, following his ever so memorable motorcycle accident, took the Hilltopper head coaching job and hired Brohm as the offensive coordinator for one season before Brohm took over as head coach. Brohm coached a lot of players originally recruited by Taggart and is surely familiar with his style. Of small note, Brohm also coached at Florida Atlantic in 2009, which I was unaware of prior to research.
· Unsportsmanlike Conduct. There is a clear focus at practice for the Boilers: clean up the penalties, and specifically, the unsportsmanlike conducts. Jeff has preached it all week, and one could expect a very sharp, clean football team out there Saturday.
· Mental Fortitude. In 2020, this team collapsed after a devastating blown call in the Minnesota game. The team bounced back in 2021 and with success, saw it sore to heights we had not seen since the mid-2000’s. Purdue football is at another cross-roads. By every measurable, Purdue should have won last week. Was the reffing awful? Yes. Did Purdue shoot itself in the foot as many times as it could? Yes. Should Purdue still have won? Arguably yes. But that is not how it works and Purdue is entering Saturday 1-2. This team needs to demonstrate mental resilience and come back focused and ready to win. The season, arguably different in 2020, is not over. Beat Minnesota and the Big Ten West is wide open.
Gambling Analysis
Numbers: The spread for this game is extremely strange. From Sunday when the spread was released, until Thursday at about 4:00pm, the spread fluctuated between Purdue -19 and Purdue -20. Around 4:00pm Thursday, we saw the spread drastically move from Purdue -20 to Purdue -17.5. After the move, we saw a flood of FAU bets and money come in. This is a clear indication that somebody from Purdue is not playing Saturday. In college, an individual player normally does not move a spread much. 2.5 points is significant, so make your own conclusions about who could be out. With that being said, Purdue money had been constant all week at -20, and now we are seeing FAU money enter the market to even out once the spread hit 17.5. If you are choosing to bet this game, continue to watch the market. Typically, the public tends to overreact to injury news. In the event a significant player for Purdue is out, I would expect the spread to move even more toward FAU, even though seemingly, the sportsbooks have already corrected for any potential news. There may be some real value with Purdue at 17.5, but I would expect this line to close around 16. This makes things incredibly hard to handicap so proceed with caution. The O/U also dropped 2.5 points from 61.5 to 59. This would lead me personally to speculate it is an offensive player. There is money STEAMING the under, way too much for my liking. I am going to bank on overreactions here and lean with the Boilers and over. EDGE: Purdue, assuming the line moves more, and the Over.
Trends: Purdue comes in as a home favorite, a spot which Brohm led Purdue teams have been extremely average ATS. Purdue has shown a propensity under Brohm to respond well ATS after a loss, which could help here. The over gets a slight lean when Purdue is a home favorite. The FAU trends do not give us much to work with. FAU has struggled ATS playing non-conference opponents, and the only clear cut barometer for us, the under in non-conference games. EDGE: Not much edge either way, slight lean to Purdue, and a push in the total.
Situation: Situationally, this will really depend on who is out for Purdue. Depending on the significance of the player, you could really see some people take FAU. Purdue is in an interesting spot potentially resting some fringe injury guys as well, given that Minnesota is a week away. I do worry about this being a look ahead spot for Purdue. FAU does not garner much public perception. They do have a well known coach and a former Miami QB, but I think the general perception is they are not a good team. The Owls played Ohio close, but were absolutely blown out by UCF. The situational spot normally would be bad for Purdue, however coming off a loss there is not much to work with. The focus here is the injury news and how the public perceives the news and reacts. EDGE: Push, Over
Total Analysis: There is not a whole lot to work with playing a team like FAU, but the storyline from the gambling analysis is that based on line movements, there HAS to be news coming before the game regarding personnel. Again, the move towards FAU, combined with the total moving down, tells me it will be a Purdue offensive player. I think if the spread drops below 17, Purdue is the play. I firmly believe there will be an overvaluing of an injury, the public will react by betting FAU, and Purdue covers. I am not worried about total, Purdue should have success in the air regardless. I like how Purdue teams typically bounce back as well.
Prediction: 38-21 Purdue. Just win, then go beat the breaks off PJ Fleck, his rowboat, and the Gophers.
Official Plays: Purdue -17 (waiting until spread moves, will likely buy the half point to 17 if it stays), Over 58 (I would expect this to fall as well, so probably some value here on waiting).
Glossary:
The spread: Arguably the most used term in all of gambling, the spread refers to the handicapped line set by the sportsbook. For those new to gambling, think of the spread as a prediction by the sports book, given all the circumstances, of what the difference between the two teams are. The favorite will be listed with a negative spread, while the underdog will have a positive spread. The spread is put in place as a handicap to make the underdog and favorite more equal. For example, Purdue is currently -17.5 against Florida Atlantic meaning a sportsbook would expect Purdue to win by 17.5 points.
Odds and How to read them: The ability to read odds presents a gambler the insight into how a sportsbook or “Vegas” views a particular bet. The most common types of odds on sports bet will range from -105 to -115. -115 odds means that to win $10 dollars, a person would need to bet $11.50. Conversely, if the odds are positive, +115, then a bettor who bets $10 would win $11.50. To calculate ML odds for negative odds, take negative Moneyline odds / (Moneylines odds + 100) * 100 = Implied probability. So, if the odds are -115 then 115/(115+100)*100 = 53.5%.
Betting against the spread: Betting against the spread (“ATS”) means you are taking Purdue +1.5 or Florida Atlantic -1.5. To cover the spread betting on Purdue, Purdue would need to lose by less than 2 or win. If one bets on Florida Atlantic spread, the Owls would have to win by 2 or more.
Cover: This means a team won ATS. If Purdue beats FAU by 1, Purdue has won the game, but FAU has covered.
Money line: Money line (“ML”) is the odds given on a particular team just to win outright. Payouts can be significantly more or less than betting the spread. For example, betting on a big favorite to win on ML will not yield a very high return. Conversely, betting on a big underdog to win could sometimes pay out double or even triple your original bet. It all depends on the odds.
Over/Under: Over/unders are a type of bets that refer to how many total points will be scored in a game. For example, if the sportsbook sets an over/under of 49, bettors will bet under if they believe less than 49 points will be scored and vice-versa.
Sharp Bettor: A sharp bettor is a bettor who has shown the ability to turn a profit over the long run. These are generally gamblers that have shown a history of success. Sharp bettors are very useful in identifying value in a particular bet.
Juice: Juice may be the most confusing aspect for new gamblers or those unfamiliar with gambling. In simple terms, juice is the percentage sportsbooks take on a given wager. Sportsbook use juice to make their profit. To do this, odds for a bet with a sports book are normally -115 or -110 for both sides of the spread. This means that to win ten dollars, you would need to be $11.50. That means either way, the sportsbook is gaining a profit because each side is losing $1.50 per bet. This is the juice.
If there is a definition not listed that you think would be helpful, please let me know.