Covering the Tracks: Maryland
Welcome to the fourth year, fifth edition of Covering the Tracks. This column is a weekly preview of the upcoming Purdue game through the lens of gambling metrics. The age-old saying is that Vegas always wins, so building upon that, we have decided to break down the game using pieces of information Vegas so graciously provides us. Whether you choose to dabble in sports gambling, or you’re just an avid Purdue fan who craves any piece of content on the Boilers leading up to game time (or both!), I hope this article can provide some helpful insight to preview the game. For those unfamiliar with sports gambling terminology, there is a glossary at the end. I use lines provided by DraftKings sportsbook, but in no way, shape, or form should this be an endorsement of their sportsbook. Use whichever you feel most comfortable with, and I certainly encourage you to shop lines at different books once you have decided how to bet. New to this year, I will be adding an “Executive Summary” at the start with a quick synopsis. For this week, we look at the 2022 Maryland Terrapins.
Prior Week Recap
How ‘bout them Boilers!!! While we put out a 1-1 record on official picks, the bonus Purdue ML at +350 gives us a huge boost for the season! The Boiler defense had its best outing of the season, limiting Minnesota to 10 and helping the under cash. Much better analysis last week than for FAU, let’s hope it continues.
2022 Season ATS Records
Purdue: 2-3 ATS, Overs are 3-2.
Maryland: 4-1 ATS, Overs are 1-4. Maryland failed to cover in week 1 against Buffalo, but has covered in every game since.
Betting Numbers
Current Betting breakdowns as of 9:00am on 10/7/22:
Current spread: Purdue +3 (Opened +4).
Moneyline: Purdue +130, Maryland -150
1H Spread: Purdue +2.5, O/U 29.5
Over/Under: 59 (Opened 61.5)
Maryland O/U: 30.5 (Over -115, Under -115)
Purdue O/U: 28.5 (Over -105, Under -125)
Betting Percentage Breakdown
Bets: 34% on Purdue, 50% on over
Money: 32% on Purdue, 61% on over
Executive Summary
Purdue has been very good as a road underdog. However, Brohm’s Purdue teams have really struggled in letdown spots after big wins against ranked teams. Maryland has looked much improved this season, starting with Taulia Tagovailoa’s decision making and big play ability. The trends support the under. Both teams are coming in on similar situational spots. Purdue has the Big Ten West wide open and controls its destiny, so they must come out sound and sharp.
Trend Analysis for Maryland
· Purdue is 1-0 ATS against Maryland under Brohm. Purdue covered in 2019 when the Boilers smoked Maryland 40-14 in a coming out game (at least we thought) for Jack Plummer as he torched the Maryland D to the tune of 420 yards and three touchdowns.
· Purdue is 9-4 ATS as an away underdog under Brohm. Purdue adds another cover in this spot with the win against Minnesota. That puts Purdue 1-1 ATS as a road underdog this season. Purdue has covered in these spots on average by 8.9 points.
· Purdue is 24-20 ATS under Brohm in games against B1G opponents. Purdue has covered in conference games by an average of 2 points.
· The over is 3-10 in games under Jeff Brohm where Purdue is an away underdog. After two straight overs in this spot, the under came back in a big, bad way with the Minnesota game. The under hits in this spot by an average of 7.8 points.
· In Purdue games against Big Ten opponents under Brohm, the over is 19-24-1. The under hits in this spot by an average of 1.2 points.
·Mike Locksley has been at the helm for Maryland since 2019. In that time, Maryland is 6-3 ATS as a home favorite. Maryland has failed to cover these games on average by 12.7 points.
· Maryland is 8-17 ATS in conference play under Coach Locksley. Maryland is off to a 2-0 start ATS in conference play this season with covers against MSU and Michigan.
· Since 2019, the over is 4-5 in games where Maryland is a home favorite. The under has hit in these games by an average of 1.1.
· In Maryland conference games under Coach Locksley, the over is 11-14, with the under hitting by an average of .2 points.
Miscellaneous Factors
· Big Ten Blowouts. We have seen these teams face off twice as Big Ten opponents and both times the games have been big time blow outs. Maryland won this game as Maryland by 43 points and Purdue won at home by 26. For the first time since these teams have met in the Big Ten, each team boasts a winning record. Will that make for a more even keel game?
· Weather. Once again, the Boilers should be playing in ideal conditions with rain at a 2% chance. Rain has caused a lot of problems for Brohm’s offenses, so this is huge. This will be the first game the Boilers play in the 50s this year, with the weather starting to turn to fall. Should this impact the game much? No, but it is worth noting this is the first somewhat “cold” weather game the Boilers have.
· Return of the Graham. One big piece of the news from the week: the expectation of Purdue’s best defensive player, Jalen Graham, to return to action. I would expect the defense gets a big boost with the hybrid player back in the lineup. On the same note, Aiden has another week of getting healthy under his belt. Purdue did a fairly good job protecting Aiden on Saturday, allowing only two sacks. Aiden did not look 100% in his winning effort against Minnesota, so I would expect some more improved progress with another week to recover. The Boilers will need to continue with the protection for the star QB.
· Manifest Destiny. Purdue won arguably its most important game of the season on Saturday (at least, thus far). With the win over Minnesota, every game becomes increasingly important going forward. Purdue has opened the race to win the Big Ten West wide open and controls its own destiny going forward, a situation Brohm Purdue teams have not had much experience with. Purdue must now play with high expectations and a lot on the line, hopefully it keeps this team focused.
· Ranked Win Hangovers. One trend that has been apparent under Brohm Purdue teams: the hangover after a big win. After the road upset of top 5 Iowa last year, the Boilers lost by 17 at home to Wisconsin. Following a beat down of #3 Michigan State, Purdue got walloped by Ohio State in the Horseshoe. In 2018, after the upset of #2 Ohio State, Purdue made Rocky Lombardi look like an All-American as Michigan State torched Purdue en route to a MSU win in East Lansing. The sample size is relatively small under Brohm, roughly 4 games in which Purdue has beaten a ranked team. However, it is still worth noting that typically, Brohm teams struggle coming off these big, emotional wins. Does Saturday fit that bill? I think yes. But there is the hope Purdue expected to win that game Saturday, and now with expectations and a chance to win the West, maybe the Boilers can refocus, and refocus quickly, come out and get a win in College Park.
Gambling Analysis
Numbers: The numbers are a little bit surprising to me. Personally, I expected a lot more money to come in on Purdue. Maybe the win seemed bigger to Purdue fans after a four game losing streak against Minnesota. Maybe the win seemed bigger to Purdue fans because it blew the west wide open. Or maybe the win seemed bigger to Purdue fans because that is not typically a game Purdue wins, especially after its showing against FAU. Regardless, the money is coming in on Maryland, and to an extent, I get it. Maryland has looked incredibly impressive. The Terrapins had a chance to beat Michigan in the Big House, and took care of MSU rather easily (second straight week Purdue gets an opponent off a win against MSU). While there is slightly more money than bets on Maryland, I have concerns regarding the total amount of money on Maryland. Anytime you approach that 70% monetary threshold, there should be concerns. 67% of the money being on Maryland leans me towards Purdue. From a total standpoint, we are seeing a much bigger gap between bets made and money percentage. I still have concerns about 64% of money on the over as it approaches the 70% threshold, however, it does give me some solace in knowing the gap is a little bigger with the money. Under still gets a lean due to the volume on over. Of note, we have seen most of the money coming in on Over, yet the total moved down from 61.5 to 59. I wonder if we could be seeing some reverse line movement here. Clearly Vegas comfortable with 59 if they are holding pat. 31-28 Maryland would be a perfect Vegas prediction. EDGE: Purdue spread, Under
Trends: The trends here are interesting. Maryland does not have a ton of sample size, but has shown to be good against the spread at home. However, this must be qualified by the fact that their conference ATS record, especially prior to this season, was downright atrocious. Coming off two straight wins, will we see this fall closer to a .500 average, or can we expect regression and another loss ATS? Purdue has thrived in the spot as an away underdog, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. The under has done very well in Purdue games when Purdue is a road underdog. This will be the first time Purdue has two back-to-back true road games (Northwestern was a neutral field last year following O$U), since early 2021 when Purdue smoked UConn and failed to cover against ND. EDGE: Purdue, Under
Situation: Both of these teams are coming off interesting spots. Taulia Tagovailoa has showcased Maryland as a competent offense that has big play ability. He is still turnover prone, but seems to have taken a step forward in his decision making. Maryland is coming off two impressive performances against the State of Michigan schools, so the public seems to have hyped up this Maryland team a bit. Purdue is coming off a massive win against Minnesota, as a road underdog, and is ready to challenge for the Big Ten West. Both these teams have great offenses in theory, but defenses have dominated as of late. Maryland held MSU to 13, while Purdue held Minnesota to 10. Purdue Brohm teams have situationally struggled coming off Big Wins, so I believe the edge goes to Maryland, while situationally, I think there is a slight under lean given the money on over. EDGE: Maryland, Under
Total Analysis: This is a prime, vintage let down spot for Purdue. However, if Purdue wants to meet the lofty goals it has set for itself after the Minnesota win, they need to come out and play well. The defense has done really well as an underdog and on the road, but this is a back-to-back road spot, so it will be telling to see if the Boilers can take a “business as usual” approach to College Park. Little Tua provides an offense that can really make some plays, but Purdue returns its best defensive player as well. I expect the health of Aiden to improve, and I would expect a more similar Syracuse performance out of Aiden than a Minnesota one. I really want to take the over, purely because this just feels like an over game, but I have to follow the numbers and trends.
Prediction: 31-27 Purdue. Purdue defense rises to the occasion. Purdue gets the let-down monkey off its back with so much money coming in on Maryland. Purdue takes a 2-1 Big Ten record into WL to beat Nebraska.
Official Plays: Purdue +3, sprinkle Purdue ML, Under 59.
Glossary:
The spread: Arguably the most used term in all of gambling, the spread refers to the handicapped line set by the sportsbook. For those new to gambling, think of the spread as a prediction by the sports book, given all the circumstances, of what the difference between the two teams are. The favorite will be listed with a negative spread, while the underdog will have a positive spread. The spread is put in place as a handicap to make the underdog and favorite more equal. For example, Purdue is currently +3 against Maryland meaning a sportsbook would expect Purdue to lose by 3 points.
Odds and How to read them: The ability to read odds presents a gambler the insight into how a sportsbook or “Vegas” views a particular bet. The most common types of odds on sports bet will range from -105 to -115. -115 odds means that to win $10 dollars, a person would need to bet $11.50. Conversely, if the odds are positive, +115, then a bettor who bets $10 would win $11.50. To calculate ML odds for negative odds, take negative Moneyline odds / (Moneylines odds + 100) * 100 = Implied probability. So, if the odds are -115 then 115/(115+100)*100 = 53.5%.
Betting against the spread: Betting against the spread (“ATS”) means you are taking Purdue +3 or Maryland -3. To cover the spread betting on Purdue, Purdue would need to lose by less than 3 or win. If one bets on Maryland spread, the Terrapins would have to win by 4 or more.
Cover: This means a team won ATS. If Maryland beats Purdue by 1, Maryland has won the game, but Purdue has covered.
Money line: Money line (“ML”) is the odds given on a particular team just to win outright. Payouts can be significantly more or less than betting the spread. For example, betting on a big favorite to win on ML will not yield a very high return. Conversely, betting on a big underdog to win could sometimes pay out double or even triple your original bet. It all depends on the odds.
Over/Under: Over/unders are a type of bets that refer to how many total points will be scored in a game. For example, if the sportsbook sets an over/under of 49, bettors will bet under if they believe less than 49 points will be scored and vice-versa.
Sharp Bettor: A sharp bettor is a bettor who has shown the ability to turn a profit over the long run. These are generally gamblers that have shown a history of success. Sharp bettors are very useful in identifying value in a particular bet.
Juice: Juice may be the most confusing aspect for new gamblers or those unfamiliar with gambling. In simple terms, juice is the percentage sportsbooks take on a given wager. Sportsbook use juice to make their profit. To do this, odds for a bet with a sports book are normally -115 or -110 for both sides of the spread. This means that to win ten dollars, you would need to be $11.50. That means either way, the sportsbook is gaining a profit because each side is losing $1.50 per bet. This is the juice.
If there is a definition not listed that you think would be helpful, please let me know.
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