Covering the Tracks: Minnesota

Covering The Tracks: Minnesota

Welcome to the fourth year, fourth edition of Covering the Tracks. This column is a weekly preview of the upcoming Purdue game through the lens of gambling metrics. The age-old saying is that Vegas always wins, so building upon that, we have decided to break down the game using pieces of information Vegas so graciously provides us. Whether you choose to dabble in sports gambling, or you’re just an avid Purdue fan who craves any piece of content on the Boilers leading up to game time (or both!), I hope this article can provide some helpful insight to preview the game. For those unfamiliar with sports gambling terminology, there is a glossary at the end. I use lines provided by DraftKings sportsbook, but in no way, shape, or form should this be an endorsement of their sportsbook. Use whichever you feel most comfortable with, and I certainly encourage you to shop lines at different books once you have decided how to bet. New to this year, I will be adding an “Executive Summary” at the start with a quick synopsis. For this week, we look at the 2022 Minnesota Golden Gophers.

Prior Week Recap

Let’s call a spade a spade: bad column last week. The predictive line movement was the only positive in an otherwise bleak result for the column. An 0-2 performance puts the season record at 2-4. Let’s try to right the ship this week.

2022 Season ATS Records

Purdue: 1-3 ATS, Overs are 3-1.

Minnesota: 4-0 ATS, Overs are 2-2. Minnesota has covered in all four of their games this season.

Betting Numbers

Current Betting breakdowns as of 9:00am on 9/30/22:

Current spread: Purdue +12 (Opened +7.5).

Moneyline: Purdue +350, Minnesota -435

1H Spread: Purdue +7, O/U 27

Over/Under: 52 (Opened 48.5)

Minnesota O/U: 32.5 (Over -110, Under -120)

Purdue O/U: 19.5 (Over -130, Under +100)

Betting Percentage Breakdown

Bets: 16% on Purdue, 37% on over

Money: 32% on Purdue, 10% on over

Executive Summary

These teams could not have had more different seasons entering this game. Minnesota has looked dominant in every phase of the game, winning every game by at least 27 points en route to a 4-0 record and 4-0 record ATS. Purdue has had real struggles against quality opponents, specifically with penalties. Purdue and an offense led by quarterback Austin Burton looked lackluster against a Florida Atlantic team that had been carved up by teams like Ohio and UCF. The public LOVES Minnesota, and they like the under too. Brohm has traditionally performed well as an away underdog against a ranked opponent. Purdue has never been an underdog in a Minnesota-Purdue game with Brohm and Fleck as the coaches.

Trend Analysis for Minnesota

· Purdue is 1-4 ATS against Minnesota under Brohm. Purdue covered in 2017 when the Boilers won in overtime, but the Boilers have failed to cover, and win, against Minnesota since. PJ Fleck has seemingly had Brohm’s number.

· Purdue is 8-4 ATS as an away underdog under Brohm. Purdue failed to cover on the road against Syracuse in this spot, however, Brohm’s teams have been good in this spot.

· Purdue is 10-4 ATS under Brohm in games against ranked teams. Brohm’s Purdue teams normally have showed up prepared and ready to go in this spot.

· The over is 3-9 in games under Jeff Brohm where Purdue is an away underdog. The over hit in the last two time Purdue was in this spot, with the over hitting against O$U last year and Syracuse this year.

· In Purdue games against ranked teams under Brohm, the over is 5-9. This makes sense given the stat above, Purdue has traditionally been an away underdog against ranked teams. This will be the first time Purdue has been in this spot since O$U where the over hit.

· In the five games between a Brohm Purdue team, and a Fleck Minnesota team, the over is 3-2. The over failed to hit last year when these teams played in less than ideal conditions.

·PJ Fleck has been at the helm for Minnesota since 2017. Since that time, Minnesota is 11-9 ATS as a home favorite. Minnesota has covered these games on average by 1.5 points.

· Minnesota is 24-18-2 ATS in conference play under P.J. Fleck. Minnesota has covered these games by an average of 1.5 points.

· Since 2017, the over is 8-11-1 in games where Minnesota is a home favorite. The under has hit in these games by an average of .1.

· In Minnesota conference games under P.J. Fleck, the over is 24-19-1, with the over hitting by an average of 3 points.

Miscellaneous Factors

· Yes, they are still there. Are we sure Tanner Morgan has not been at Minnesota since the Joe Tiller days? Minnesota, once again, will roll out the tandem of Tanner Morgan and Mo Ibrahim to face the Boilers Saturday. There is no player in the country who knows Purdue as well as Mr. Morgan does with this being his fifth start against the Boilers (anyone remember Carlyle Holiday from early 2000s Notre Dame?).

· Payne Durham Revenge Game. This will be the first time Payne Durham has been active against Minnesota since the ill-fated pass interference call from 2020. I have said it before, but it was clear that call completely, from a mental standpoint, derailed the Boiler’s 2020 into the trainwreck it eventually became. In his interview with GBI, Payne openly admitted still thinking about this game. Hey Payne, me too. Payne has had a relatively quiet season, but I would expect him to be a little more motivated this time around.

· Fleck v. Brohm. This game will represent the sixth meeting between Fleck and Brohm. Both coaches took their respective jobs in 2017, and as a result, have opened themselves up to constant comparison against each other. I think all Purdue fans remember the stunts Fleck pulled during the Purdue recruiting process in trying to leak Purdue news to leverage himself into a better offer. On a personal level, he is my least favorite coach in the Big Ten, but I digress. Fleck has dominated this head-to-head matchup coming in on the heels of four straight wins. Could this series easily be 3-2 in favor of Brohm (How do you not challenge the catch last year?!?). Sure, but it is not.

· New Season. Look, the losses to both Penn State and Syracuse were incredibly frustrating, but make no mistake about it, Saturday’s game is the most important game on the 2022 Purdue football schedule. Purdue is 0-0 in the Big Ten West, and they are heading to face, by all accounts, the favorite in the West. A win against Minnesota and Purdue really puts itself in the driver’s seat going forward. Every team in the division, with the exception of Minnesota, has looked flat out abysmal at times, and for Iowa and Wisconsin, this certainly smells of a down year (unless we are talking about Iowa’s offense, then a down year does not do it justice). Purdue will need to put the losses behind them, because a win against Minnesota and almost all the doors are open for them to end up in Indianapolis come December.

· Graham and AOC. It would be a mistake to not mention the impact of Graham and AOC. Each the best player for their respective unit. Jalen Graham has already been ruled out for Saturday, which is a massive blow to the Boilermaker defense who could really use his playmaking this weekend. Will AOC play? Optimistically I think yes. Maybe foolish, maybe naive, but I like to think Purdue will roll AOC out Saturday in what again, is the biggest game of the season.

Gambling Analysis

Numbers: Unsurprisingly, everyone, and I mean everyone, is on Minnesota for Saturday. The spread opened at 7.5, and jumped to 12 almost immediately. This is not a surprise, but rather a sportsbook reaction to the money coming in on Minnesota. In my opinion, the line movement had nothing to do with AOC. The original spread does look like Vegas factored in an AOC absence, with the money on Minnesota pushing the line way up. If AOC, this could play right in the sportsbooks’ hands as the line would likely drop down to 9 with an expectation of some late Purdue money. Sportsbooks then could have a window where they could really make some money if Purdue were to lose by 10 (so Minnesota bettors lose -12, and Purdue bettors who wait till the AOC news lose +9, hypothetically). I will discuss more situationally, but the money should not be a surprise given the recent play of both of these teams. From a totals standpoint, we are really seeing the money come in on the under. Minnesota’s defense has looked incredible this year, with the most points given up in a game being Western Illinois (worth noting, Western Illinois scored a touchdown when it was down 52-3 against Minnesota in the fourth, so I would venture to say the starting defense is even more impressive). The defense has given up 24 points in a four game span. Obviously Minnesota has not played a murderer’s row of opponents, but a six points per game average over a four game span is wildly impressive, especially when one of those teams was Michigan State. It seems like a foregone conclusion to the public that Minnesota will continue on, business as usual, and the Boilers will not score. Overall, the shining light for Purdue fans should be that once the spread jumped from 7.5 to 12, all the money still poured in on Minnesota and Vegas held the line at 12. This makes me think they are comfortable with that line. EDGE: Purdue spread, Over

Trends: The trends for this game were a bit mundane from Minnesota standpoint. Minnesota, under Fleck, really has just been a good team ATS. They are not really great in a certain facet, they are just consistently good ATS in almost any spot. They are consistent, which, as much as I dislike him, is a testament to Fleck. What I found fascinating about these two teams facing off is that while Fleck owns a 4-1 series record against Brohm, this is the first time Minnesota has been favored against Purdue with these two coaches facing off.

2017- Purdue -3.5, Purdue wins by 7.

2018- Purdue -10.5, Minnesota wins by 31.

2019- Purdue -1, Minnesota wins by 7.

2020- Purdue -2.5, Minnesota (wrongfully) wins by 3.

2021- Purdue -2.5, Minnesota wins by 7.

Every other year the team who has won, has won by 7. The biggest margin of victory occurred the only time Purdue was a double digit favorite, and they got blown out by 31. This game represents a Michael Scott “How the turntables” situation where Minnesota is finally the favorite, and a big favorite at that. Will this impact how Minnesota performs against Purdue? Jeff Brohm is a big away underdog against a ranked team. With the exception of the 2021 Ohio State game, which was a horrible situational spot for Purdue, Brohm has been a cash cow in this spot, trend wise. From a totals standpoint, the under is certainly the trend pick from a Purdue standpoint. The under has been wildly successful when Purdue plays ranked teams and especially when Purdue is on the road. The under has had some success for Minnesota at home as well. EDGE: Purdue, Under

Situation: This is an incredible spot for Purdue, bias aside. Purdue was on display for the nation Saturday night as the Boilers squeaked (thank you Jacob Wahlberg) out a victory by two points against a BAD Florida Atlantic team. Meanwhile, equally on display for the nation, Minnesota DOMINATED Michigan State. This was a prove it game for Minnesota, who had wins against New Mexico State, Western Illinois, and Colorado. Minnesota walked in and smacked Michigan State in the mouth so hard, they announced to the entire conference their legitimacy as the favorite to win the Big Ten West. The spread jumped 4.5 points almost immediately after opening thanks in part to the results this past weekend. Throw in AOC potentially being out, and in no world does Purdue keep this game close, right? I will say this, the spots for both of these teams are eerily similar to the Chiefs-Colts game this past weekend, and we saw how that turned out. The Minnesota defense has looked untouchable this season, likely leading to a public belief that Purdue does not score, especially with a backup QB. EDGE: Purdue, Over

Total Analysis: This is a game Jeff Brohm teams perform in. We have seen this time and time again. There is a part of me, maybe foolishly, that believes Jeff restricted Burton, and the playbook, significantly just so Minnesota had film. Then come gametime, Brohm unleashes Burton and a vertical threat is established. There is no way to say this without sounding like a homer, but I love Purdue, from all angels. The public being so heavy on Purdue, the situational spot screaming to take Minnesota, and the trends showing Brohm success as an away underdog against ranked teams, I do not see how you do not take Purdue. Could this blow up in my face if Tanner Morgan comes out and throws all over our defense and Minnesota wins 31-7? Absolutely. However, it is my belief AOC plays, Payne Durham steps up in a big way, and we see the Boilers really keep this thing close. If you want Minnesota, I would wait until AOC is announced, then bet the Gophers, if you want Purdue, I would probably take Purdue sooner rather than later, the spread isn’t going to move that much more towards Minnesota.

Prediction: 31-24 Minnesota (38-31 Purdue if AOC plays). I would expect this game to be back and forth but close, and if AOC does play, I expect Purdue to win this game.

Official Plays: Purdue +12, sprinkle Purdue ML, Over 52. Payne Durham first TD on FanDuel- +1700.

Glossary:

The spread: Arguably the most used term in all of gambling, the spread refers to the handicapped line set by the sportsbook. For those new to gambling, think of the spread as a prediction by the sports book, given all the circumstances, of what the difference between the two teams are. The favorite will be listed with a negative spread, while the underdog will have a positive spread. The spread is put in place as a handicap to make the underdog and favorite more equal. For example, Purdue is currently +12 against Minnesota meaning a sportsbook would expect Purdue to lose by 12 points.

Odds and How to read them: The ability to read odds presents a gambler the insight into how a sportsbook or “Vegas” views a particular bet. The most common types of odds on sports bet will range from -105 to -115. -115 odds means that to win $10 dollars, a person would need to bet $11.50. Conversely, if the odds are positive, +115, then a bettor who bets $10 would win $11.50. To calculate ML odds for negative odds, take negative Moneyline odds / (Moneylines odds + 100) * 100 = Implied probability. So, if the odds are -115 then 115/(115+100)*100 = 53.5%.

Betting against the spread: Betting against the spread (“ATS”) means you are taking Purdue +12 or Minnesota -12. To cover the spread betting on Purdue, Purdue would need to lose by less than 11 or win. If one bets on Minnesota spread, the Orange would have to win by 13 or more.

Cover: This means a team won ATS. If Minnesota beats Purdue by 1, Minnesota has won the game, but Purdue has covered.

Money line: Money line (“ML”) is the odds given on a particular team just to win outright. Payouts can be significantly more or less than betting the spread. For example, betting on a big favorite to win on ML will not yield a very high return. Conversely, betting on a big underdog to win could sometimes pay out double or even triple your original bet. It all depends on the odds.

Over/Under: Over/unders are a type of bets that refer to how many total points will be scored in a game. For example, if the sportsbook sets an over/under of 49, bettors will bet under if they believe less than 49 points will be scored and vice-versa.

Sharp Bettor: A sharp bettor is a bettor who has shown the ability to turn a profit over the long run. These are generally gamblers that have shown a history of success. Sharp bettors are very useful in identifying value in a particular bet.

Juice: Juice may be the most confusing aspect for new gamblers or those unfamiliar with gambling. In simple terms, juice is the percentage sportsbooks take on a given wager. Sportsbook use juice to make their profit. To do this, odds for a bet with a sports book are normally -115 or -110 for both sides of the spread. This means that to win ten dollars, you would need to be $11.50. That means either way, the sportsbook is gaining a profit because each side is losing $1.50 per bet. This is the juice.

If there is a definition not listed that you think would be helpful, please let me know.

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