Covering the Tracks: Penn State
Covering The Tracks: Penn State
Welcome to the fourth year, first edition of Covering the Tracks. This column is a weekly preview of the upcoming Purdue game through the lens of gambling metrics. The age-old saying is that Vegas always wins, so building upon that, we have decided to break down the game using pieces of information Vegas so graciously provides us. Whether you choose to dabble in sports gambling, or you’re just an avid Purdue fan who craves any piece of content on the Boilers leading up to game time (or both!), I hope this article can provide some helpful insight to preview the game. For those unfamiliar with sports gambling terminology, there is a glossary at the end. I use lines provided by DraftKings sportsbook, but in no way, shape, or form should this be an endorsement of their sportsbook. Use whichever you feel most comfortable with, and I certainly encourage you to shop lines at different books once you have decided how to bet. New to this year, I will be adding an “Executive Summary” at the start with a quick synopsis. For this week, we look at the 2022 Penn State Nittany Lions.
2022 Season ATS Records
Purdue: 0-0 ATS, Overs are 0-0.
Penn State: 0-0 ATS, Overs are 0-0.
2022 Purdue Futures
Purdue Regular Season Win Total: Over 7.5 (+125), Under 7.5 (-145). The juice suggests Purdue will win 7 games or less.
Purdue Regular Season Conference Wins: Over 4.5 (-160), Under 4.5 (+130). The juice suggests Purdue will win 5 conference games or more.
Purdue odds to win the Big Ten West: +550 (A ten dollar bet would return 55 dollars plus the original bet).
Purdue odds to win the Big Ten: +3000 (A ten dollar bet would return 300 dollars plus the original bet).
Purdue odds to win the National Title: +25000 (A ten dollar bet would return 2,500 dollars plus the original bet).
Aiden O’Connell to win the Heisman: +9000 (A ten dollar bet would return 900 dollars plus the original bet).
Aiden O’Connell 2022 Passing Yards: Over 3,849.5 (-115), Under 3,849.5 (-115).
Aiden O’Connell 2022 Passing Touchdowns: OVer 29.5 (-115), Under 29.5 (-115).
Betting Numbers
Current Betting breakdowns as of 9:00am on 8/31/22:
Current spread: Purdue +3.5 (Opened +3.5).
Moneyline: Purdue +140, Penn State -165
1H Spread: Purdue +2.5, O/U 27
Over/Under: 52.5 (Opened 54.5)
Penn State O/U: 27.5 (Over -105, Under -125)
Purdue O/U: 24.5 (Over +100, Under -130)
Betting Percentage Breakdown (As of 8/31/22 at 9:00am)
Bets: 39% on Purdue, 35% on over
Money: 67% on Purdue, 14% on over
Executive Summary
The amount of money on Purdue early is concerning, but I am not sure there is enough sample size of total handle to concern Purdue bettors just yet, this will be something to monitor closer to gametime. The good news for Purdue fans is a majority of the bets coming in are still on Penn State, which could suggest big bettors are confident in Purdue. The line has not really moved, which is interesting. Everybody seems to be on the under, which could be the correct move early, but I am skeptical. Purdue has seen a lot of success against the spread at home and as an underdog under Brohm. The over struggled last year in Purdue games, although overall the over has done well in Ross-Ade for Purdue. Penn State has been almost .500 against the spread in these situations under Franklin. Penn State games in situations like Thursday night have seen the under have success. Jeff Brohm is 1-0 ATS versus Penn State. Purdue injuries will play a significant role, as will the impact each new defensive coordinator will have for each team.
Trend Analysis for Penn State
· Purdue under Brohm is 0-1 ATS against Penn State. This was one of my favorite covers Purdue has ever had, because if you recall correctly, Purdue was a 28.5 point underdog, and Penn State was up 28-0 with 14:12 left in the second quarter. The Boilers lost 35-7 but found a way to cover.
· Purdue is 8-4 ATS as a home underdog under Brohm. This has been a pillar of this column. Year after year we see the benefits of backing Jeff Brohm in an underdog role. Last year, Purdue pulled off the 11 point win against number 3 ranked Michigan State, but failed to cover in a 17 point loss to Wisconsin at Ross-Ade. Purdue has covered in these spots on average by 7 points.
· Purdue is 3-2 ATS under Brohm in the first game of the season. The Boilers have covered in 2017 against Louisville, 2020 against Iowa, and 2021 against Oregon State while failing to cover in 2018 against Northwestern and 2019 against Nevada. However, last year was the first outright win for Purdue in an opening game under Brohm. Purdue rides a two game, opening game winning streak and covering streak into the Penn State game. It is worth noting, Jeff Brohm missed the Iowa game due to Covid in 2020, however, his fingerprints were still all over the game, so credit is still deserved. Northwestern and Oregon State were both night games, with the Northwestern game also taking place on a Thursday. While Purdue failed to cover, you could argue a certain personal foul penalty could have changed the entire outcome of that game.
· Purdue is 23-19 ATS under Brohm in conference games. Purdue has covered these games on average by 1.7 points and won outright on average by .6 points. Purdue squeaked out a positive ATS record in Big Ten play last year posting a 5-4 record.
· The over is 6-5-1 in games under Jeff Brohm where Purdue is a home underdog. The over normally has been covered, on average, by one point in these spots.
· In Purdue conference games under Brohm, the over is 18-23-1. On average, the under has covered by one point. Last season we saw the under hit five times in conference play (Illinois, Minnesota, Iowa, Nebraska, and Northwestern).
·James Franklin has been at the helm for Penn State since 2014. Since that time, Penn State is 12-12-1 ATS as an away favorite. Penn State has covered these games on average by 4.3 points. In 2021 specifically, Penn State was 1-1 ATS in this spot, losing at Michigan State but winning at Maryland.
· Penn State is 35-34-2 ATS in conference play under James Franklin. Penn State has covered these games by an average of 1.6 points. Penn State was also 5-4 ATS in this spot last year.
· Since 2014, the over is 11-14 in games where Penn State is an away favorite. This includes the over going 1-1 last season. The under has hit in these games by an average of 3.2 points.
· In Penn State Conference games under James Franklin, the over is 30-40-1, with the under hitting by an average of 2.5 points. Penn State defenses typically lock down Big Ten teams, as their non-conference overs have seen some success. This could be due to the team sharpening up later in season, or the quality of opponent. Last season, however, the over was 2-7 in conference games, only hitting against Iowa and Michigan State.
· This will be the third straight season Penn State has opened with a Big Ten opponent (of course, this is largely due to every Big Ten team opening 2020 with a Big Ten opponent). In 2020, Penn State lost to IU in a remarkable game that saw IU prevail in overtime with the controversial Michael Penix two-point conversion. In 2021, Penn State won a barn-burner with a 16-10 win at Wisconsin.
Miscellaneous Factors
· The Open Market. Maybe it is recency bias, but this year, more than any prior, the transfer portal will likely play a larger role than it ever has up to this point. Purdue and Penn State both are in situations where the team is using transfers to fill a lot of production. This leaves the general public with a plethora of question marks. Penn State returns Sean Clifford, but who does he have around him? Can the Iowa receivers help to replace David Bell production with so many Purdue receivers hurt? How will the defensive transfers impact the ability to put pressure on Clifford? There are so many question marks that will make this first week, and first Purdue game, especially hard to handicap until we have some sort of ideas how all these transfers fit in each program. This is the way forward with NIL and the portal, so this should be a good test to set expectations going forward.
· Great Expectations. Purdue is coming off the first nine win season since 2003. For the first time since Brohm has taken over (in my opinion, MAYBE you could argue 2018?) Purdue is going to have real expectations put on them from the get go. How does this team respond? Going into 2021, there seemed to be the general perception the program was heading in the wrong direction, and although Purdue had struggled in 2020 (which I would argue was a good season derailed by the Minnesota OPI call in an otherwise extremely odd season), the talent levels had to suggest success in 2021, which we saw. Can Purdue build on the Tennessee game and capitalize? The offense still looked pretty good without Bell.
· The Gameday Spread. A fun little note from last year, the spread only was a factor in one Purdue game last year, Illinois. Illinois covered the game, but Purdue won. In all 11 other games, the team that covered the spread won the game outright. We have seen this as a continuing trend in college football, and particularly in bowl games. This generally suggests that if you like the spread of an underdog, you should always be taking their juice on the moneyline as well.
· Welcome Home, Taylor Stubblefield. The longtime NCAA receptions leader (until broken by Oklahoma Receiver Ryan Broyles in 2011, little Wednesday trivia for ya) returns back to his alma mater, this time as the Penn State wide receivers coach. He has a largely unknown group, with the exception of Parker Washington who showed flashes of brilliance last season. There were rumors all offseason that Purdue would reach out to Stubblefield to replace the departed JaMarcus Shephard, but Stubblefield remained at Penn State. I imagine Taylor will be a little extra motivated at this one.
· The Big Breesy. While Taylor Stubblefield should be recognized for his contribution, the King of Purdue football will be back in the building Thursday night (per reports). Brees gave the pregame speech in 2019 against Nebraska in a 31-27 win and the pregame speech in 2021 against Illinois in a 13-9 win. Brees has been quite the catalyst for Purdue football, and with his new partnership with the Boilermaker Alliance, his influence and popularity, especially amongst current players, should only grow further.
· Injuries. I would be remiss if I did not mention the Purdue injuries as a large factor in the game. Garrett Miller going down was a pretty big loss. I had extremely high hopes for him this year, his athletic ability is off the charts. Trice, Brown, Graham, and Thompson are all supposed to play Thursday, albeit unknown if they are truly 100%. The WR room is the biggest injury question, but the depth should allow them to produce regardless.
· The DC Universe. Interesting for both programs, each will unveil a new Defensive Coordinator this year with Ron English/Mark Hagen taking over for Brad Lampert, and former Miami Hurricanes head coach Manny Diaz taking over for Penn State after Brent Pry left to take the Virginia Tech coach. Brent Pry was a staple in Happy Valley before taking his first HC job. Manny Diaz, prior to his ascension to HC at Miami, was known for producing turnover hungry defenses. His “Turnover Chain” at Miami made quite the rounds on social media and ESPN. Ron English brings recent SEC experience to the Big Ten with Mark Hagen also contributing. It will be a massive question mark to see how these defenses perform with new leadership, especially given the relative success both units had last season.
Gambling Analysis
Numbers: The amount of bets on Penn State are heavy, however we are seeing a lot of the money coming in on Purdue. There were some reports out of Vegas that Penn state has become a bit of a public darling, and even with the heavy money on Purdue, the public is the side backing the Nittany Lions. However, I would be foolish to not acknowledge that money amount breaking the 65% threshold, as it is for Purdue, is a concern. This number will require monitoring. If we see money continually come in on Purdue, I would be shocked to not see the number move to 3. The Thursday slate is way more packed than usual, otherwise the numbers would be a bit clearer. Expect a lot of bets Thursday to clean up the muddy picture. From a totals standpoint, everyone is on the under, and with good reason. Penn State hit the under in all but 3 games last season, one of those three being against FCS Villanova. The under hit in six straight Purdue games last season to start the year. Penn State has maybe the best safety in the Big Ten with an incredible back seven. However, the money here is way too much on the under, which has already caused the line to move down from 54.5. Now, in the past the totals have not been as receptive to a contrarian style, as this column typically does better on spread side versus totals, so take with a grain of salt. As things stand, I lean to the over slightly, just given the mass amount of money, although I would be lying if I said I want to take the under. The 3.5 number is also of slight concern to me, generally speaking. This almost invites Purdue bets as you just need Purdue to lose by a field goal to still cover. I wonder if Vegas has Penn State by 4. EDGE: Barely lean Purdue, Over
Trends: The Book of John Purdue, Chapter 20:22 states: “Fade Brohm as a favorite, back Brohm as the dog.” Jeff Brohm has earned himself quite the name nationally for playing spoiler, and his abilities to get his team ready for games in which they are an underdog is well documented. While both these teams are unranked, this has all the feels and makings of a ranked Penn State team coming into West Lafayette. James Franklin’s ATS records in conference play are the representation of a poker face. It is extremely hard to get a read. Penn State stays close to .500 ATS, which presents some issues from a handicapping standpoint. Recent trends suggest the under is the right play, with the Penn State defense and slower moving offense cashing under bettors all year, last season. The under was dominant in Purdue games as well, especially early in the season. Big picture, we have seen some over success in games at Ross-Ade, especially when Purdue is the underdog. EDGE: Underdog Brohm, lean Under
Situation: Situational analysis is always tough in the first game of the season. Here, we are really trying to gauge public expectations on both teams to see if a misunderstanding by the public creates value on one side. Aiden O’Connell has generated some hype as he enters 2022 with a little dark horse Heisman talk. Purdue is coming off a nine win season in which it has generated expectations for itself as a program for the first time in a VERY long time. However, there is a public perception that Purdue will be extremely down after losing Karlaftis and Bell, as well as some other big pieces (Alexander, Horvath, etc.). Purdue has a Vegas win total set at 7.5 compared to Penn State’s 8.5. Penn State has long established itself as a contender under Franklin, and the public recognizes that. Sean Clifford returns but is that a good thing in the eyes of the public? This Penn State defense has the ability to really make noise and establish itself as one of the Big Ten’s best. I do believe there is a bit over situational overvaluing on the Under. Both these teams have new defensive coordinators, while returning extremely experienced quarterbacks. I do not see enough of a situational difference between Penn State and Purdue to make a call one way or the other. EDGE: Push, Over
Total Analysis: I hate to do this with my bias probably showing, but I will be taking Purdue. I cannot bet against Brohm in the underdog role until he provides me reason to do so. While I have concerns about the money % on Purdue, I believe Penn State is still the public’s pick and the money % will come down closer to gametime. The trends make me confident in Brohm, however the trends for the totals stick out like a sore thumb. For me, this comes down to two things: (1) Can Purdue generate enough of a pass rush to put any sort of pressure on Penn State? (2) How one dimensional will Purdue be? Everyone and their mother believes Purdue will throw the ball a ton, and Penn State certainly has the talent and athleticism to defend the pass. Can Purdue establish enough of a run game to keep Penn State honest? Or, is the drop off at receiver so minimal, compared with an improved offensive line and a full off-season for Jeff Brohm to gameplan, that even if Penn State knows Purdue is passing, Purdue still can. I truly believe there will be some hiccups on defense for both teams with the new coordinators. My optimism hopes Charlie Jones can make a play or two for a Purdue special teams unit that generally struggles. The energy will be in Ross-Ade, Brohm is a master play designer, but James Franklin brings in years of recruiting talent and Big Ten success. It should be very close.
Prediction: 28-25 Boilers. Purdue showed me a lot in the bowl game, especially on offense. Bell and Karlaftis will be missed, but Jeff Brohm has built a program at Purdue and I would expect guys to step up as needed. I hate the 25 number, but could see a situation where Penn State scores down 28-17 late to try and cut it to 3. I am once again playing on the trend from last year where the spread does not matter and taking Purdue moneyline, so if Penn State wins, I do see them covering 3.5.
Official Plays: Purdue +3.5, Purdue ML +140 (On Draftkings, but +146 on Fanduel), Over 52.5. I will try to provide betting % updates on twitter as necessary!
Glossary:
The spread: Arguably the most used term in all of gambling, the spread refers to the handicapped line set by the sportsbook. For those new to gambling, think of the spread as a prediction by the sports book, given all the circumstances, of what the difference between the two teams are. The favorite will be listed with a negative spread, while the underdog will have a positive spread. The spread is put in place as a handicap to make the underdog and favorite more equal. For example, Purdue is currently +5.5 against Penn State meaning a sportsbook would expect Purdue to lose by 5.5 points.
Odds and How to read them: The ability to read odds presents a gambler the insight into how a sportsbook or “Vegas” views a particular bet. The most common types of odds on sports bet will range from -105 to -115. -115 odds means that to win $10 dollars, a person would need to bet $11.50. Conversely, if the odds are positive, +115, then a bettor who bets $10 would win $11.50. To calculate ML odds for negative odds, take negative Moneyline odds / (Moneylines odds + 100) * 100 = Implied probability. So, if the odds are -115 then 115/(115+100)*100 = 53.5%.
Betting against the spread: Betting against the spread (“ATS”) means you are taking Purdue +3.5 or Penn State -3.5. To cover the spread betting on Purdue, Purdue would need to lose by less than 4 or win. If one bets on Penn State spread, the Nittany Lions would have to win by 4 or more.
Cover: This means a team won ATS. If Penn State beats Purdue by 2, Penn State has won the game, but Purdue has covered.
Money line: Money line (“ML”) is the odds given on a particular team just to win outright. Payouts can be significantly more or less than betting the spread. For example, betting on a big favorite to win on ML will not yield a very high return. Conversely, betting on a big underdog to win could sometimes pay out double or even triple your original bet. It all depends on the odds.
Over/Under: Over/unders are a type of bets that refer to how many total points will be scored in a game. For example, if the sportsbook sets an over/under of 49, bettors will bet under if they believe less than 49 points will be scored and vice-versa.
Sharp Bettor: A sharp bettor is a bettor who has shown the ability to turn a profit over the long run. These are generally gamblers that have shown a history of success. Sharp bettors are very useful in identifying value in a particular bet.
Juice: Juice may be the most confusing aspect for new gamblers or those unfamiliar with gambling. In simple terms, juice is the percentage sportsbooks take on a given wager. Sportsbook use juice to make their profit. To do this, odds for a bet with a sports book are normally -115 or -110 for both sides of the spread. This means that to win ten dollars, you would need to be $11.50. That means either way, the sportsbook is gaining a profit because each side is losing $1.50 per bet. This is the juice.
If there is a definition not listed that you think would be helpful, please let me know. I can be reached at Tylertochs@gmail.com.
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