Covering the Tracks: Purdue-Nebraska - BoilerUpload: Purdue Boilermakers Football & Basketball Recruiting

Published Oct 14, 2022

Covering the Tracks: Purdue-Nebraska

Tyler Ochs

GoldandBlack.com contributor

Covering The Tracks: Nebraska

Welcome to the fourth year, sixth edition of Covering the Tracks. This column is a weekly preview of the upcoming Purdue game through the lens of gambling metrics. The age-old saying is that Vegas always wins, so building upon that, we have decided to break down the game using pieces of information Vegas so graciously provides us. Whether you choose to dabble in sports gambling, or you’re just an avid Purdue fan who craves any piece of content on the Boilers leading up to game time (or both!), I hope this article can provide some helpful insight to preview the game. For those unfamiliar with sports gambling terminology, there is a glossary at the end. I use lines provided by DraftKings sportsbook, but in no way, shape, or form should this be an endorsement of their sportsbook. Use whichever you feel most comfortable with, and I certainly encourage you to shop lines at different books once you have decided how to bet. New to this year, I will be adding an “Executive Summary” at the start with a quick synopsis. For this week, we look at the 2022 Nebraska Cornhuskers.

Prior Week Recap

I genuinely believed the column had its first 2-0 showing on the season with Purdue taking a 31-23 lead with such little time left in the game. One stop and the Boilers spread, ML and under cash. Alas, the Terrapins scored to hit the over by a .5 points. The second time that has happened this season. We nailed the Purdue score correctly and were just a few points from being dead on accurate.

2022 Season ATS Records

Purdue: 3-3 ATS, Overs are 4-2.

Nebraska: 1-5 ATS, Overs are 2-4. Nebraska’s only cover came against IU.

Betting Numbers

Current Betting breakdowns as of 9:00am on 10/14/22:

Current spread: Purdue -13.5 (Opened -12).

Moneyline: Purdue -520, Nebraska +410

1H Spread: Purdue -7.5, O/U 29

Over/Under: 56.5 (Opened 60)

Nebraska O/U: 20.5 (Over -115, Under -115)

Purdue O/U: 35.5 (Over -110, Under -120)

Betting Percentage Breakdown

Bets: 42% on Purdue, 54% on over

Money: 20% on Purdue, 45% on over

Executive Summary

Nebraska bringing in an interim coach makes trend analysis very tough. The numbers suggest a LOT of money on Nebraska, around 80%. Purdue has struggled overall under Brohm as a big favorite, but has done better in conference play as a double-digit favorite. Nebraska has been HORRIBLE against the spread this year, which concerns me that we could see a regression to the mean. Purdue should be perceived higher than they are after their last two wins, but public is still backing Nebraska heavily.

Trend Analysis for Nebraska

· Purdue is 3-2 ATS against Nebraska under Brohm. The spread has never mattered in these games. The favorite has won once, in 2018, when Purdue won by 14 to cover -3.5. Outside of that, the underdog has won outright in every Purdue game against Nebraska since Brohm has been the coach.

2021: Purdue 28-23, Purdue covers +7.5

2020: Nebraska 37-27, Nebraska covers +1

2019: Purdue 31-27, Purdue covers +4

2018: Purdue 42-28, Purdue covers -3.5

2017: Nebraska 25-24, Nebraska covers +3.5

· Purdue is 9-11 ATS as a home favorite under Brohm. Purdue failed to cover in this spot against FAU, however the Boilers covered the week prior against Indiana State.

· Purdue is 25-20 ATS under Brohm in games against B1G opponents. Purdue has covered in conference games by an average of 2.1 points.

· The over is 11-9 in games under Jeff Brohm where Purdue is a home favorite. The over has hit on average by .1 points, which tells me that when the under has hit, it has hit with ease (I.E., FAU) and when the over hits, it is a bit closer (I.E. ISU).

· In Purdue games against Big Ten opponents under Brohm, the over is 20-24-1. The under hits in this spot by an average of 1.1 points.

·Nebraska trend analysis obviously becomes incredibly difficult with the decision to relieve Scott Frost of his duties a few weeks ago. Mickey Joseph’s only head coaching position prior to the current interim position was at Langston University, an NAIA school in Oklahoma. This isn’t to say Coach Joseph lacks the pedigree (his coaching experience is impressive with a national championship under his belt as the WR coach at LSU), but rather there are no real coaching trends to follow. Under Coach Joseph, the Huskers have a 2-1 record, but are 1-2 ATS with the only cover coming in a win against IU (thank you for your service, Nebraska). We have seen the Huskers defense give up 21 points and 13 points in their last two matchups. The past weekend was the first time this season Nebraska held an opponent under 20 points. The trends would show improvement from the Huskers defense, but this is also largely due to the decline in quality of opponents. The 49-14 loss to OU by the Huskers is looking worse and worse with OU getting whooped by some Big 12 opponents.

Miscellaneous Factors

· The Interims. As written about by GBI, Purdue will face interim coaches in back to back weeks with Mickey Joseph and Nebraska coming into town before a trip to Madison to face Jim Leonhard. For Colts fans, back-to-back Interim Coaches is a bit of a sore subject after the eggs laid against Oakland and Jacksonville to end the 2021-22 season. Interim coaches can present a difficulty since there just is not much film or trends on how they coach a team. If anything, this game is a perfect showcase for Mickey Joseph to show why he deserves consideration for the interim tag to be removed. Brohm has never faced either Joseph or Leonhard, so it will be curious to see how he handles the interim coaches in the interim.

· The Wild, Wild, West. Three teams in the Big Ten West sit atop the standing with a 2-1 conference record. Purdue, Illinois, and yes, Nebraska, just like everyone predicted preseason. While firing a coach after a loss to Georgia Southern would seem to suggest a team’s season is over, Nebraska’s surprisingly is not. A win Saturday and the Huskers are legitimately in the thick of the Big Ten West. I understand that their two wins are IU and Rutgers, but this is very much a team with plenty to play for. On the other hand, another Purdue win and the Boilers continue moving their way south on I-65 towards Indianapolis on December 3. This is a massive game for the B1G West.

· Beware of Wind. Oftentimes in college football handicapping, people assume rain to be the biggest difference maker in terms of direct impact on the game. I would argue, as would others, that the true difference maker is the wind. For those local to Indiana, there has been an uptick in wind this week, and the forecast calls for SOME (not a lot, although there is a chance) wind on Saturday. With low temperatures at kick, and the chance of some wind, be mindful of how this could impact the game.

· Walk On U. It seems every week there is a new, undiscovered player that comes up big for Purdue. Andrew Sowinski made a big play for the Boilers in the win over Maryland. Devin Mockabee solidified the win over Minnesota. Aiden is, well, that is self-explanatory. The Walk-Ons have been massive for Purdue each week. Will another one step up this week? At this rate, probably.

Gambling Analysis

Numbers: My initial reaction to this was concern that this spread was too high. Fourteen points for a Jeff Brohm as a favorite is a LOT of points. This notion was clearly justified, to an extent, based on the money numbers. 80%, yes 8-0 percent, of the money is on Nebraska spread. 58% of the bets are on Nebraska, which does raise a bit of concern, because we can deduce from the 22% gap in bets versus money, that those who are placing on Nebraska, are placing BIG bets on Nebraska. 80% of the money is substantial. As a bettor who would prefer to align with Vegas, I constantly want to be against the monumental disparity in dollars wagered on a side. In this case, that money falls on Nebraska, so I believe Purdue has a slight edge here, based on dollars bet thus far. Additionally, we have seen some interesting line movement, while all that money was coming in on Nebraska, the line actually moved toward Purdue, which presents a reverse-moneyline opportunity, similar to what we saw with Syracuse. I have not heard any rumors suggesting a player for Purdue is out, but to see the Nebraska spread jump and then the over/under drop, gives me the slightest concern. The spread did get up to 14 before coming back down to 13.5. This screams Purdue by 14 to me. There is also about a 9% bet and money differential in favor of the under. With 9% more of the money on the under than bets, one could suggest a sharp backing on the under. EDGE: Purdue spread, Under

Trends: As stated above, an interim coach really makes trend analysis difficult. This forces us to focus almost entirely on Purdue trends. Put bluntly, Jeff Brohm’s Purdue teams have struggled as favorite, but have REALLY struggled as double digit favorites. CAVEAT: Jeff Brohm’s Purdue teams have been fairly good as double digit favorites in conference games. This is a rarity that does not occur often for the Boilers. Purdue has covered as double digit favorites in their last two under Brohm, beating the brakes off IU by 37, and covering in a win over Northwestern in Wrigley. The last two times Purdue did not cover in conference as a double digit favorite: 2020 and 2021 Illinois. Will we see an Indiana State-esque performance, where the Boilers come out and take care of business? Or, will we see an FAU performance, where the Boiler offense sputters and a late defensive effort bails out the team for a win. The under has typically been the way to roll for Purdue as a home favorite, and this is exemplified when looking at Purdue’s track record against the Big Ten West. Maybe an indictment of the offenses Purdue typically sees in the West, but 6 of the last 7 Boilermaker games against the Big Ten West have resulted in the under. EDGE: Slight lean Nebraska due to Brohm struggles as a favorite, Under

Situation: I really expected a majority of the money to be on Purdue. Purdue is coming off two really, really gritty wins over Minnesota and Maryland ON THE ROAD. And yet, all the talk nationally, or even conference-wise, in regards to the Big Ten West seems to be focused around Illinois. Purdue, to my disappointment but also joy, is flying under the radar still. How easily could this team be undefeated? It seems the public perception is simply that the spread is too many points. The money on Nebraska seems to suggest Purdue cannot cover such a high number. I do worry about a look ahead here for Purdue. Purdue will be looking to get the Badger off their back, as they have severely struggled to beat Wisconsin. Even in a down year, I cannot but think that Wisconsin is still king until Purdue slays that beast. On the other hand, Nebraska does go into a bye week next week, with the upcoming break probably very welcomed by the players. Nebraska is coming off back to back wins in the Big Ten, so maybe, maybe, there is a general believe that Nebraska is a scrappy program who can pull out some wins. Perception wise, Purdue defense has earned some credibility lately, as has the Nebraska defense. The Nebraska offense has the ability to sling the ball, and I would expect Purdue to throw at will as well, regardless of the defenses successes from both teams. EDGE: Purdue, Over

Total Analysis: This is the hardest game to handicap so far this year, with maybe the exception of FAU. There is just no hard lean, and with an unknown coach in Mickey Joseph, it is really tough to predict how this game will go, even with metrics. This game will be required to follow the numbers, so to speak. There is too much money, with a reverse line movement, for me to bet Nebraska. I would lean Purdue. I would HOPE, Purdue can light this defense up. Nebraska has not seen a QB like Aiden, so I hope he is healthy enough. Trey Palmer and that Nebraska team can make some big plays, but Casey Thompson is still turnover prone. Purdue’s trends in divisional play have me leaning under. IF wind is a factor, which I expect it not to be, the under is the move.

Prediction: 35-21 Purdue.

Official Plays: Purdue -13.5, Under 56.5. I miss the juice from a Purdue moneyline, but such is life as the favorite.

Glossary:

The spread: Arguably the most used term in all of gambling, the spread refers to the handicapped line set by the sportsbook. For those new to gambling, think of the spread as a prediction by the sports book, given all the circumstances, of what the difference between the two teams are. The favorite will be listed with a negative spread, while the underdog will have a positive spread. The spread is put in place as a handicap to make the underdog and favorite more equal. For example, Purdue is currently -13.5 against Nebraska meaning a sportsbook would expect Purdue to win by 13.5 points.

Odds and How to read them: The ability to read odds presents a gambler the insight into how a sportsbook or “Vegas” views a particular bet. The most common types of odds on sports bet will range from -105 to -115. -115 odds means that to win $10 dollars, a person would need to bet $11.50. Conversely, if the odds are positive, +115, then a bettor who bets $10 would win $11.50. To calculate ML odds for negative odds, take negative Moneyline odds / (Moneylines odds + 100) * 100 = Implied probability. So, if the odds are -115 then 115/(115+100)*100 = 53.5%.

Betting against the spread: Betting against the spread (“ATS”) means you are taking Purdue -13.5 or Nebraska +13.5. To cover the spread betting on Purdue, Purdue would need to win by 14 or more. If one bets on Nebraska spread, the Huskers would have to lose by 13 or less, or win.

Cover: This means a team won ATS. If Purdue beats Nebraska by 10, Purdue has won the game, but Nebraska has covered.

Money line: Money line (“ML”) is the odds given on a particular team just to win outright. Payouts can be significantly more or less than betting the spread. For example, betting on a big favorite to win on ML will not yield a very high return. Conversely, betting on a big underdog to win could sometimes pay out double or even triple your original bet. It all depends on the odds.

Over/Under: Over/unders are a type of bets that refer to how many total points will be scored in a game. For example, if the sportsbook sets an over/under of 49, bettors will bet under if they believe less than 49 points will be scored and vice-versa.

Sharp Bettor: A sharp bettor is a bettor who has shown the ability to turn a profit over the long run. These are generally gamblers that have shown a history of success. Sharp bettors are very useful in identifying value in a particular bet.

Juice: Juice may be the most confusing aspect for new gamblers or those unfamiliar with gambling. In simple terms, juice is the percentage sportsbooks take on a wager. Sportsbook use juice to make their profit. To do this, the odds for a bet with a sports book usually are -115 or -110 for both sides of the spread. This means that to win ten dollars, you would need to be $11.50. Either way, the sportsbook is gaining a profit because each side is losing $1.50 per bet. This is the juice.

Please let me know if a definition is not listed that you think would be helpful.