Covering the Tracks: Wisconsin

Covering The Tracks: Wisconsin

Welcome to the fourth year, seventh edition of Covering the Tracks. This column is a weekly preview of the upcoming Purdue game through the lens of gambling metrics. The age-old saying is that Vegas always wins, so building upon that, we have decided to break down the game using pieces of information Vegas so graciously provides us. Whether you choose to dabble in sports gambling, or you’re just an avid Purdue fan who craves any piece of content on the Boilers leading up to game time (or both!), I hope this article can provide some helpful insight to preview the game. For those unfamiliar with sports gambling terminology, there is a glossary at the end. I use lines provided by DraftKings sportsbook, but in no way, shape, or form should this be an endorsement of their sportsbook. Use whichever you feel most comfortable with, and I certainly encourage you to shop lines at different books once you have decided how to bet. New to this year, I will be adding an “Executive Summary” at the start with a quick synopsis. For this week, we look at the 2022 Wisconsin Badgers.

Prior Week Recap

Woof. Gut said over, went against it, paid dearly. Boilers fail to cover as we see the Nebraska regression to the mean and the Huskers cover the +13.5. Neither team could stop anybody as we see the over hit by almost 30 points.

2022 Season ATS Records

Purdue: 3-4 ATS, Overs are 5-2.

Wisconsin: 3-4 ATS, Overs are 5-2.

Betting Numbers

Current Betting breakdowns as of 9:00am on 10/21/22:

Current spread: Purdue -+2.5 (Opened +2.5).

Moneyline: Purdue +110, Wisconsin -130

1H Spread: Purdue +0.5, O/U 24.5

Over/Under: 51.5 (Opened 50.5)

Wisconsin O/U: 26.5 (Over -125, Under -105)

Purdue O/U: 24.5 (Over -110, Under -120)

Betting Percentage Breakdown

Bets: 79% on Purdue, 57% on over

Money: 72% on Purdue, 20% on over

Executive Summary

For the second week in a row, Purdue will once again face an interim coach. Jim Leonhard is a tad different, since by every indication he is expected to have the interim tag removed. However, the point remains that an interim coach makes trend analysis very tough. The numbers suggest a LOT of bets and money on Purdue. There is less money than bets on Purdue which seems to be slightly concerning. Purdue has to break the curse. Wisconsin has owned Purdue for over a decade. Even in a down year for Wisconsin, Wisconsin is still favored, which is terrifying to me as a Purdue fan. Consider this an emotional hedge game: Bet on Wisconsin and in the event Purdue wins, it was a small price to pay to end the losing streak.

Trend Analysis for Wisconsin

· Purdue is 2-2 ATS against Wisconsin under Brohm. However, as the story of the past 14 or so years, Brohm is 0-4 straight up against Wisconsin.

2021: Wisconsin 30-13, Wisconsin covers -3.5

2019: Wisconsin 45-24, Purdue covers +24.5

2018: Wisconsin 47-44, Wisconsin covers +3.5

2017: Wisconsin 17-9, Purdue covers +21

· Purdue is 10-4 ATS as an away underdog under Brohm. Purdue is 2-1 in this spot this season. Purdue covered against Maryland and Minnesota winning outright, but failed to cover at Syracuse (I know, I know… they should have).

· Purdue is 25-21 ATS under Brohm in games against B1G opponents. Purdue has covered in conference games by an average of 1.9 points.

· Purdue is 2-2 ATS under Brohm in games before a bye week. I did not include 2020 since there was not really a true, designated, bye week ahead of time. Purdue is 2-2 in these games straight up. This includes a 20-13 loss to Minnesota in 2013, a 24-22 W (led by Aiden O’Connell) over Northwestern in 2019, a 42-28 win over Nebraska in 2018, and a 28-10 loss to Michigan in 2017.

· The over is 4-10 in games under Jeff Brohm where Purdue is an away underdog. The under is 1-2 this year, however, with the total going under only at Minnesota.

· In Purdue games against Big Ten opponents under Brohm, the over is 21-24-1. The under hits in this spot by an average of 0.6 points.

· In Purdue games under Brohm the week before a bye, the over is 2-2.

·From a trend perspective, there is even less on Jim Leonhard than Mickey Joseph. Not only has Leonhard never been a head coach before, he has never been at any school other than Wisconsin. However, due to his tenure as the defensive coordinator at Wisconsin, we can attempt some trend analysis on the Wisconsin defense and a little on the Wisconsin offense. Since the firing of Paul Chryst, the Wisconsin offense has looked pretty similar in both games it has played, with the difference between total points. In the Wisconsin NW game, Wisconsin dropped 44 on the Wildcats. Against MSU, the Badgers put up 28 points in a game that went into overtime. In both instances, we saw a very balanced offense, with Graham Mertz throwing around 25 times, and Braelon Allen rushing for about 25 times. Purdue really has not experienced Graham Mertz. Although he beat the Boilers in 2021, Graham threw a whopping 8 times for 52 yards, but hey, a win is a win. Since 2017 (when Leonhard took over as the DC), Wisconsin is 15-20 ATS as a home favorite. The over has gone 16-18-1 ATS when Wisconsin is a home favorite. Leonhard and the Wisconsin defense has allowed a Brohm coached Purdue team to eclipse 25 just once in their four meetings, when Purdue took Wisconsin to overtime in 2018. In fact, since Purdue beat Wisconsin 26-23 in Madison in 2003, Purdue has broken the 20 point mark twice in Camp Randall. The Boilers put up 24 in 2019, and put up 20 in 2005. Four of these Madison trips have resulted in 10 points or less during the losing streak.

Miscellaneous Factors

· October 18, 2003. October 18, 2003 represents the date the last time Purdue beat Wisconsin. Not covered, not home versus away, just plain beat them. This includes the start of this streak, the infamous October 16, 2004 game in which Purdue hosted College Gameday, and Kyle Orton failed to slide (Kyle, I know you’re reading this, and just wanted to thank you for all you did for Purdue football). There is no way to put this without saying it bluntly, the Wisconsin Badgers own Purdue in football. There is an argument to be made that Wisconsin has had some down years, but without question, this is the best chance the Boilers have to beat Wisconsin. In today’s edition of depressing yet wild stats: there are players on this team who have not been alive when Purdue beat Wisconsin in 2003.

· Jim Leonhard. The game Saturday represents the opportunity for a real “full-circle” moment for Purdue. Wisconsin has been the pinnacle of consistency for the Big Ten dating back to the 90’s. From Barry Alvarez, to Brett Bilema, there was not really a drop off for the Badgers, with the exception of the Gary Anderson 2013-14 season. And yet, here comes Wisconsin firing their longtime coach in the middle of the season. Very un-Wisconsin like. Then, the interim coach named is current DC Jim Leonhard, who not only was a player on the last Wisconsin team to lose to Purdue, but was also a walk-on. Purdue’s success with walk-ons this year is well documented, so maybe, Purdue take Jim Leonhard back to 2003 by using the Boiler walk-ons to beat Wisconsin.

· The Big M-O, MO. I believe it was Lee Corso on the EA Sports NCAA Football video game series who used to say a team had “The Big M-O, MO.” Normally this was after a couple minutes of a long sustained drive where a team had racked up numerous first downs as the team matriculated the ball down the field. The MO that Lee Corso was referring to: momentum. Purdue has a lot of it, Wisconsin does not. Can Purdue sustain the momentum it has generated into Wisconsin?

· Intermission. Purdue is a week away from a much needed bye week. Purdue has been in a flux all season with injuries, and next week presents a real opportunity to recharge and get everyone healthy for a final four game stretch for the West. Focus will be crucial. Like a high school student before a break, it is easy to lose focus and get ahead of yourself. Purdue will need to be at its sharpest to beat a down Wisconsin team.

Gambling Analysis

Numbers: Welp. The numbers do not look good. The line alone generated concern of the bat. Often in gambling, if a line seems too good to be true, it is. Factoring in the trajectories of both teams this year and recent results, can anyone make a case for Wisconsin being a 2.5 point favorite. I cannot. This is a relatively bad Wisconsin team at 3-4 against a hot 5-2 Purdue team, and yet, Wisconsin remains favored even after a loss to MSU. What really concerns me is how much money has come in on Purdue, and we have not seen an ounce of line movement. You would think with all the Purdue money that the line would move towards Purdue, I.E. Purdue would be +1 or even -1. However, that is not the case. To me, I read this as Vegas is comfortable with the line and taking on Purdue money, which as a contrarian gambler, is concerning. There are more redflags for Purdue as well. Not only is almost 80% of the bets on Purdue, we are seeing 72% of the money, which means we have a sharp advantage of about 7% on Wisconsin. Sharps on Wisconsin, public HEAVY on Purdue. Worth noting, Sharp bettors still lose 40% of the time. From a totals standpoint, there is a lot of money on the under, which makes sense. But 70%? Maybe it is a small sample size, but that is a lot. EDGE: Wisconsin spread, Over.

Trends: The good news for Purdue fans: Jeff Brohm is an underdog and a road underdog at that! I will qualify this statement, while the Vegas line has Purdue as the underdog, this certainly does not feel like an underdog spot for Purdue. Brohm has been able to produce results in the underdog role due to his motivational ability in the spot. Will he be able to use the plight of the underdog to motivate a team who probably feels like the favorite? I am not sure. But the trends show Brohm’s well documented success in this spot. The trends for Purdue’s success against Wisconsin is also well documented and folks, the results are obviously not good. Purdue has not beaten Wisconsin since 2003 and have really struggled to score points in Camp Randall. As documented above, Purdue has put up 10 points or less in 3 of their last 4 trips to Madison. The under also typically hits when Purdue is an away underdog. EDGE: Wisconsin, Under

Situation: Situationally, the public loves Purdue. Wisconsin is having, by their standards, a horrendous season. The public’s heavy backing of Purdue tells us everything we need to know about the perception of both teams. Purdue is coming in red-hot with three straight Big Ten wins. Wisconsin just lost to a bad MSU team and has a losing record. And Purdue is GETTING 2.5 points? Purdue is the obvious choice here, right? Right?? Situationally, Purdue is coming off getting torched through the air after a couple really good defensive efforts. Wisconsin’s offense has been much better at putting up points and the defense has been relatively good. Even with the money on the under, the perception here is likely for an over game given Purdue’s offense and Wisconsin’s offense putting up points recently, so I like the under a bit more in this spot. EDGE: Wisconsin, Under.

Total Analysis: I do not know how to say this any more clearly than this: this is a perfect spot for Wisconsin. The reaction to the line, the money on Purdue, the perception of Wisconsin and Purdue, this is a perfect storm for Purdue to have a flat game and Wisconsin walk away with a win. The Purdue defense has really shown up on the road, for the most part. I do not think Graham Mertz can beat this Purdue team, but the running game potentially can. And let’s face it, Purdue has not won in Wisconsin since 2003. Until I see Purdue actually do the damn thing, the pick has to be Wisconsin. This leads us to a new definition: emotional hedge. Betting on Wisconsin moneyline so in the event Wisconsin wins, you win money, and if Purdue wins, well it was worth the price of losing the bet for a Purdue win.

Prediction: 27-23 Wisconsin. Emotional Hedge Game of the Year. Let’s hope the column goes 0-2 again. If this game turns into a shootout, it obviously bodes much better for Purdue. The spread just makes me think Vegas knows something we do not, and I could see Purdue having turnover problems or red zone issues. Charlie Jones’ questionability does not help. Go Boilers.

Official Plays: Wisconsin -2.5, Under 50.5 ( I would buy the .5 to 51 in case we get a 27-24 game).

Glossary:

The spread: Arguably the most used term in all of gambling, the spread refers to the handicapped line set by the sportsbook. For those new to gambling, think of the spread as a prediction by the sports book, given all the circumstances, of what the difference between the two teams are. The favorite will be listed with a negative spread, while the underdog will have a positive spread. The spread is put in place as a handicap to make the underdog and favorite more equal. For example, Purdue is currently +2.5 against Wisconsin meaning a sportsbook would expect Wisconsin to win by 2.5 points.

Odds and How to read them: The ability to read odds presents a gambler the insight into how a sportsbook or “Vegas” views a particular bet. The most common types of odds on sports bet will range from -105 to -115. -115 odds means that to win $10 dollars, a person would need to bet $11.50. Conversely, if the odds are positive, +115, then a bettor who bets $10 would win $11.50. To calculate ML odds for negative odds, take negative Moneyline odds / (Moneylines odds + 100) * 100 = Implied probability. So, if the odds are -115 then 115/(115+100)*100 = 53.5%.

Betting against the spread: Betting against the spread (“ATS”) means you are taking Purdue -13.5 or Wisconsin +13.5. To cover the spread betting on Purdue, Purdue would need to win or lose by 2 or less. If one bets on Wisconsin spread, the Badgers would have to win by 3 or more.

Cover: This means a team won ATS. If Wisconsin beats Purdue by 1, Wisconsin has won the game, but Purdue has covered.

Money line: Money line (“ML”) is the odds given on a particular team just to win outright. Payouts can be significantly more or less than betting the spread. For example, betting on a big favorite to win on ML will not yield a very high return. Conversely, betting on a big underdog to win could sometimes pay out double or even triple your original bet. It all depends on the odds.

Over/Under: Over/unders are a type of bets that refer to how many total points will be scored in a game. For example, if the sportsbook sets an over/under of 49, bettors will bet under if they believe less than 49 points will be scored and vice-versa.

Sharp Bettor: A sharp bettor is a bettor who has shown the ability to turn a profit over the long run. These are generally gamblers that have shown a history of success. Sharp bettors are very useful in identifying value in a particular bet.

Juice: Juice may be the most confusing aspect for new gamblers or those unfamiliar with gambling. In simple terms, juice is the percentage sportsbooks take on a given wager. Sportsbook use juice to make their profit. To do this, the odds for a bet with a sports book usually are -115 or -110 for both sides of the spread. This means that to win ten dollars, you would need to be $11.50. Either way, the sportsbook is gaining a profit because each side is losing $1.50 per bet. This is the juice.

Please let me know if a definition is not listed that you think would be helpful.