Early Look: Purdue bowl destination far from clear

Jerry Palm's Updated Bowl Projections

After Purdue's 44-7 win over Indiana, football thoughts now can now be turned Purdue's bowl destination and opponent.

We will likely find that out after the College Football Playoff and New Year's Day Six bowl games are announced at noon ET on Sunday, Dec. 5. The biggest determinant of where Purdue ends up over the holidays is one simple factor: How many Big Ten teams are selected to participate in the College Football Playoff (CFP)/New Year's Day Six Bowl(s).

"In terms of where Purdue plays, it doesn't really matter if Michigan makes the CFP," said Jerry Palm, a Purdue grad and bowl selection guru for CBSSports.com. "It is whether the Big Ten gets two, three or four teams in the New Year's Day Six and/or the CFP that matters."

Palm thinks Michigan (even if it loses to Iowa next Saturday in the Big Ten title game) and Ohio State are locks to make the New Year's Day Six/CFP, and he also believes Michigan State has a very good chance. In fact, he projects a MSU/Notre Dame battle in the Fiesta Bowl. The possible fourth team to be invited to the New Year's Day Six could be Iowa, should the Hawkeyes upset Michigan in the Big Ten title game on Dec. 4.

"That is the only scenario I see Purdue getting to the Outback Bowl, is if everyone moves up a rung on the ladder because there are four Big Ten teams in the New Year's Day Six," Palm said.

Assuming Michigan beats Iowa, Palm believes the Wolverines will be a No. 2 seed in the CFP, and Ohio State will go to the Rose Bowl. The only thing that could change Ohio State's destination is if Oregon earns a trip to Pasadena and the Rose Bowl doesn't want a rematch of the Ducks' 35-28 win over OSU in September. In that scenario, he sees Michigan State in the Rose Bowl and OSU someplace else as part of the New Year's Day Six.

"A 10-win Iowa team is a lock for the Citrus Bowl as they haven't played in Orlando since 2005," Palm said. "I think the Outback Bowl has Purdue and Wisconsin to choose from because Minnesota played in Tampa on Jan. 1, 2020, and bowls under the most current agreement with the Big Ten it has a five-year waiting period to invite schools back to their respective sites. Wisconsin, who hasn't played in Tampa since 2015, is very likely for Tampa in that scenario."

There is a new bowl agreement for the Big Ten, so The same "five-year" rule no longer precludes Purdue from returning to Nashville, its most recent bowl destination where it was spanked by Auburn in 2018 in the Music City Bowl. There are some th

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Contrary to the Pac-12 and Big 12, two leagues that assign their teams to bowls based more strictly on the standings, the Big Ten office places its teams in bowls to allow for skipping over of teams in the standings.

"As it stands, the way I look at it is it will come down to Purdue and Penn State for Vegas, but I am less than 50 percent sure that will happen in the end," Palm said. "Is a five-loss Penn State team that faltered in the second half of the season more attractive than a four-loss Purdue team that peaked at the end? This morning, I say Purdue would get the nod, but now (Sunday afternoon) I say it is 50/50 Purdue will either be in Vegas or Phoenix. Right now, I have Purdue in Phoenix to take on West Virginia.

"I rethought New York and changed my order a little bit and I think maybe Penn State and Tennessee in Nashville makes sense and Minnesota in Vegas makes more sense.

"I will let you know if change my mind.

Stay tuned, and don't make those plane and hotel reservations just yet.

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