GOLDANDBLACK.COM PREVIEW: #14 PURDUE at PENN STATE
More: Purdue 2016-17 coverage
Tuesday, Feb. 21, 2017 • 6 p.m. ET | Bryce Jordan Center (State College, Pa.) | TV: BTN | Radio: Purdue Radio Network
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About this game: Fourteenth-ranked Purdue has won its last five and sits in a tie with Wisconsin at the top of the Big Ten standings with four games left to play, so needless to say, every one from here on out is a big one. ... Purdue won the first meeting between these two teams, 77-52, in Mackey Arena on Jan. 21. ... In that first game, Purdue shot nearly 57 percent and held the Nittany Lions to just 31 percent. ... Penn State has had its moments at home, notably its upset of Maryland last time out in the BJC. ... The Lions are one of the most freshmen-dependent teams in the Big Ten, with guard Tony Carr and forward Lamar Stevens leading the way, but they were a combined 4-of-18 in the first meeting between these teams. Both have played well since, though. ... Penn State is 10th in the league in conference games in both scoring offense and scoring defense and shoots less than 42 percent from the floor offensively. It's also 13th in the conference in rebounding margin, a category Purdue leads.
| Team | AP | Coaches | RPI | KenPom | KenPom - Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Purdue |
14 |
14 |
21 |
11 |
78% |
|
Penn State |
— |
— |
73 |
80 |
22% |
No. 14 PURDUE BOILERMAKERS (22-5, 11-3 BIG TEN)
Roster | Schedule | Statistics
Projected Starters
C - Caleb Swanigan (6-9, 250, So.)
Penn State will need an answer for Swanigan. No one's found one yet this season, though. Last time against the Lions he was 8-of-12 from the floor in a 19-point, 12-rebound game. The national player-of-the-year candidate is Purdue's constant and certainly a great comfort to have for Purdue as it enters this championship-run stretch. Isaac Haas has been on a tear the past two games, 17-of-22 from the floor, and averaging 20-and-a-half points.
F - Vincent Edwards (6-8, 225, Jr.)
In a season of ups and downs, Edwards is trending well, at both ends of the floor. He was very aggressive off the dribble against Michigan State while playing a strong defensive game, two games after blowing up for 26 at IU in Purdue's last road game. The big game at Indiana was an outlier from prior road games, but he'll hope the start of a new trend as Purdue closes with three of four on the road.
G - Carsen Edwards (6-0, 190, Fr.)
The freshman was 5-of-8 for 13 points against Penn State last time, a rock-solid game. On the road this season, he's Purdue's second-leading scorer, averaging 11.7 points and shooting a significantly higher percentage from three-point range — 36.4 vs. 30.4 — from three-point range.
G- P.J. Thompson (5-10, 188, Jr.)
Purdue dominated the defensive matchup against Shep Garner last time around and will want to win that matchup again. Thompson's mired in a shooting funk, 0-for-9 from three-point range the past three games, but he's a 45-percent shooter on the road. Spike Albrecht is peaking at a good time for Purdue, giving it nice minutes off the bench.
G - Dakota Mathias (6-4, 200, Jr.)
Purdue's best perimeter defender and such an important piece of the Boilermakers' offensive mix, Mathias could push toward All-Big Ten consideration, which would be remarkable for Purdue's fifth-leading scorer and a player who just doesn't get as many shots as his ability would suggest he would. Ryan Cline is shooting 52.2 percent from three-point range in road games this season.
PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS (14-13, 6-8 BIG TEN)
Roster | Schedule | Statistics
Projected Starters
Forward - 11 Lamar Stevens (6-7, 218, Fr.)
Stevens is Penn State's second-leading scorer at 12.3 points per game, but struggled against Purdue last time. Stevens is hot, though, having scored 20 or more in three of the past six games, including 26 at Indiana and 25 vs. Maryland. He's making threes on low volume.
33 Mike Watkins (6-9, 246, R-Fr.)
Watkins averages eight rebounds per game but was overwhelmed in the first game by Swanigan and played just 17 minutes.
Guard -10 Tony Carr (6-3, 198, Fr.)
Since being held to just six points by Purdue last time, Carr's been in double-figures every game since. Expect a much better showing from the talented rookie this time around.
Guard - 23 Josh Reaves (6-4, 210, So.)
The sophomore's first game against Purdue was his best of the Big Ten season. He scored 12 points in the blowout loss and made 4-of-6 threes. He is a threat, but hasn't been very productive lately.
Guard - 33 Shep Garner (6-2, 187, Jr.)
Garner was a non-factor against Purdue last time, but will command the same respect as he did then. He's not scoring very much lately, but can.
Key player - Payton Banks (6-6, 223, Jr.)
Banks is a 38-percent three-point shooter from the frontcourt. He's dropped three or more threes in 14 games this season.
Key player - 44 Julian Moore (6-10, 235, Jr.)
Penn State will need Moore's size to use against Purdue's.
| Rebound | Turnovers | Urgency |
|---|---|---|
|
This has to be a strength for Purdue. It's the best rebounding team in the Big Ten, facing a Penn State team for which it's a vulnerability. Penn State is not an efficient offensive team generally, so if things go to plan defensively for Purdue, there will be lots of defensive rebounds to go around. |
Purdue committed 16 of them last time against Penn State but won big anyway. With so much on the line, it will not want to tempt fate. It's so important for Purdue to keep this game in the halfcourt, with Penn State having to score as much as possible against an established D, not a scrambling one. |
This will not be the big-time road environment that brought the best out of Purdue in other places and this is an up-and-down team that the Boilermakers already handled once. Purdue needs to understand what's on the line, though, and conduct itself accordingly. Obviously. |
PREDICTION: PURDUE 76, PENN STATE 69
Purdue is defending pretty well right now, and though Penn State does have some talented youth as part of its offensive arsenal, this seems like a favorable matchup, with little reason to believe wholesale second and third chances will come Penn State's way. It may not be easy, but very few on the road are.
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