GOLDANDBLACK.COM PREVIEW: #21 PURDUE vs. ILLINOIS
More: Purdue 2016-17 coverage
Tuesday, Jan. 17, 2017 • 7 p.m. ET | Mackey Arena (West Lafayette) | TV: BTN | Radio: Purdue Radio Network
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About this game: Purdue needs to bounce back from a disappointing loss at Iowa, with its margin for error in the early stages of the Big Ten race tightening. ... After giving up 29 to Peter Jok in Iowa City, the Boilermakers now face another of the conference's best scorers in Malcolm Hill, who averages better than 18 per game and put 30 on Purdue in Champaign around this time a year ago. ... in overall play, Illinois is allowing nearly 72 points per game, second-worst in the Big Ten behind Iowa, and in Big Ten games, opponents are shooting an even 50 percent vs. the Illini ... Illinois led Maryland by as many as 11 in the first half this weekend, but went scoreless for nearly eight minutes in the second half, as the Terrapins completed a regular season sweep. ... Illinois has lost its two Big Ten road games thus far by 25 at Maryland and 16 at Indiana.
| Team | AP | Coaches | RPI | KenPom | KenPom - Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Purdue |
21 |
22 |
39 |
18 |
86% |
|
Illinois |
— |
— |
44 |
65 |
14% |
No. 21 PURDUE BOILERMAKERS (14-4, 3-2 BIG TEN)
Roster | Schedule | Statistics
Projected Starters
C - Caleb Swanigan (6-9, 250, So.)
Maybe/probably the best big man in the country to this point this season, Swanigan will want to get back in the double-double column after only grabbing eight boards at Iowa. Purdue will want to get him the ball, obviously, but Illinois will attack him and Isaac Haas, too. Big man Maverick Morgan is shooting 60-plus percent this season — he scored 17 points in Purdue's Big Ten Tournament romp last March — and the Illini would be remiss to not try to get the red-hot Michael Finke some looks from distance. His ability to shoot from the perimeter is a matchup dilemma for Purdue's size, though Swanigan matches up better than Purdue did last season with a 7-footer on the floor at all times.
F - Vincent Edwards (6-8, 225, Jr.)
Edwards is really good when he's aggressive, so why isn't he all the time? He was terrific against Iowa in the first half, then blended in in the second. Purdue needs consistency from him. Edwards is shooting 52.4 percent in wins this season, 30.6 in losses. He and whoever else Purdue has up front needs to keep Leron Black off the glass. He killed Purdue on the backboard in Champaign a couple meetings ago.
G - Carsen Edwards (6-0, 190, Fr.)
If you just took into account the highlights, then the freshman would stand as one of the best in the league, but the learning process is an ongoing one for the ultra-aggressive rookie and the unevenness is real. Possessions are too important in games like these to shoot too quick too often, before the country's best rebounder is even established around the basket. Again, there are no surprises here. This is going to be a process.
G- P.J. Thompson (5-10, 188, Jr.)
Tracy Abrams will present an important defensive matchup for Thompson, who didn't produce a whole lot at Iowa, where Hawkeye freshman Jordan Bohannon got the best of the point guard matchup. Thompson is 2-of-8 from long range the past two games, unlike him. Spike Albrecht hasn't done much in limited minutes, not that his value is defined by statistics.
G - Dakota Mathias (6-4, 200, Jr.)
Mathias is likely Purdue's go-to guy on guarding Malcolm Hill, no small task. He's one of the Boilermakers' most important offensive players and one might wonder if he can keep his legs under him all season having to guard some of the players he's having to guard, running through every screen known to man. Ryan Cline is basically playing starter's minutes right now as he and Mathias are playing together a lot. He made four threes at Iowa. He's shooting 45 percent from three for the season now.:
ILLINOIS FIGHTING ILLINI (12-6, 2-3 BIG TEN)
Roster | Schedule | Statistics
Projected Starters
Forward - 12 Leron Black (6-7, 220, So.)
The sophomore big man can be a terror on the glass at times, as Purdue well knows after he grabbed 13 rebounds against it in Champaign two seasons ago.
Center - 22 Maverick Morgan (6-10, 245, Sr.)
The big man is shooting 60-plus percent from the floor and has been more involved in the offense of late, averaging 15 points in the past four games. He can make mid-range jumpers, which helps against Purdue's size.
Guard -5 Jalen Coleman-Lands (6-3, 190, So.)
Coleman-Lands is a 39-percent three-point shooter who's made three or more triples in eight games this season. Purdue will have to keep track of him wherever he goes on offense and pick him up in transition.
Guard - 13 Tracy Abrams (6-2, 185, Sr.)
Illinois point guard led the Big Ten in three-point shooting in non-conference play, but is 1-for-17 in conference play. Sixteen of the 24 points he's scored in Big Ten play came against Ohio State.
Guard - 21 Malcolm Hill (6-6, 225, Sr.)
The Big Ten's third-leading scorer is a big guard who can score from every level, a really challenging matchup for Purdue, or any team for that matter. He had 30 on the Boilermakers in Champaign last season. He hasn't been shooting particularly well from three-point range in Big Ten play, but he's certainly capable.
Key player - 43 Michael Finke (6-10, 230, So.)
Maybe a key player in this game, Finke's ability to step out and shoot against Purdue's size was a real problem for Purdue in Champaign last season. Illinois would be wise to try to pull Swanigan and Haas away from the rim and Finke's ability to shoot could be a piece of that puzzle. Finke is 6-of-11 from three-point range in Big Ten play.
Key player - 33 Mike Thorne Jr. (6-11, 280, Sr.)
Illinois will need Thorne's size to counter Purdue's most likely.
Key player - Jaylon Tate (6-3, 170, Sr.)
Tate and freshman Te'Jon Lucas will divvy up reserve minutes in Illinois' backcourt, specifically at point guard. Lucas has been gaining more minutes of late and has handed out 12 assists to just two turnovers the past two games.
| Defensive discipline | Transition defense | Get it inside |
|---|---|---|
|
Purdue will have to pay Hill a ton of attention, keep Coleman-Lands accounted for and make sure its rotations are sound when scurrying to big men who can shoot from the perimeter when such situations arise. |
Whether this is a concentration issue or effort issue on Purdue's part, opponents are getting far too many buckets off simply beating the Boilermakers to the other end. Purdue would much rather opponents have to work harder for it. |
Purdue lived by the three in the first half at Iowa, but also died by it in the second half. Not that those weren't (mostly) acceptable shots, but the Boilermakers' M.O. must start inside, particularly against these Fighting Illini. |
PREDICTION: PURDUE 82, ILLINOIS 71
Purdue's been inconsistent defensively, and the Illini certainly have the firepower to twist that knife, but the Boilermakers should be able to have some success offensively against a struggling defensive team that'll face some real matchup problems, and has really struggled on the road in Big Ten games. You never know, though. If Hill gets loose, Coleman-Lands gets hot and Illini big men make shots, Illinois might be a tougher out than one might think.
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