Indiana 5, Purdue 4: Boilers Drop Heartbreaker

For the second day in a row Purdue got six shutout innings from its starting pitcher. For the second day in a row, Indiana rallied against the bullpen to comeback and defeat Purdue.

On Sunday afternoon Purdue held a 4-1 lead with one out and no one on in the ninth inning. Much like Saturday in the serventh inning, a complete meltdown ensued as the Hoosiers rallied for four runs to take the series with a 5-4 win.

The late rally denied Kyle Iwinski a win on a day when he had a solid outing. He threw six shutout innings and gave up just four hits before leaving with a 4-0 lead entering the seventh inning.

Purdue got a run in the first on a single from Connor Caskenette and a run in the second on a bynt single from Thomas Green. Keenan Taylor was then hit by a pitch with the bases loaded in the sixth and Green drove in another run with a sac fly as Purdue scored twice without the benefit of a hit.

Avery Cook came on in the seventh and the Hoosiers loaded the bases with a walk, a single, and a hit by pitch. They would get one run on a groundout, but Cook got out of it to maintain the lead at 4-1.

In the bottom of the seventh Purdue had a chance for some insurance runs, but left two on base. The same was true in the eighth as Purdue had first and second iwth one out after a single and a hit by pitch, but could not get the runners home.

Cook worked a 1-2-3 eighth and got the first out in the ninth before the same crew that did the damage in the seventh started the rally. Brock Tibbits and Carter Mathison each reached on singles before Aaron Suval replaced Cook. Suval then walked Jake Stadler and Andrew Wiggins to make it 4-2 with one out. The walk to Stadler especially stings, as he splent the last three seasons as a reserve in West Lafayette and played in 44 games for Purdue.

Devin Taylor made it 4-3 on an infield single before Suval got a much needed strikeout of Josh Pyne. Now with two outs, Purdue still led 4-3, but Nick Mitchell worked a tying walk before an error gave Indiana its fourth run of the inning.

Purdue was shut down 1-2-3 in the ninth to preserve the win for Indiana. For the second day in a row Purdue couldn't get the big hit when it needed one, as it left 10 men on base. Six of those men were left on base in the 6th, 7th, and 8th innings.

The loss is a very tough one for Purdue. A win would have kept Purdue in first place in the conference with two weeks to go and would have greatly benefitted the Boilermakers' NCAA Tournament case. Purdue now falls into a three-way tie for second with Indiana and Nebraska a game behind Illinois. More importantly, Purdue lost the tiebreaker for any Big Ten tournament seeding scenarios.

There are now seven games left in the regular season and Purdue sits at 31-17 with an RPI of 69. The NCAA Tournament is still a possibility, but it has to finish strong in the final two weeks of the season. A midweek game at Illinois-Chicago (RPI 73) is now pretty much a must-win, as well as next weekend's series at Michigan (RPI 99). If Purdue can take three of those four (or better) it should enter the final weekend of the season at home agaisnt first place Illinois with at least a chance to win the Big Ten and make the NCAA Tournament.

If it wins both series against the Wolverines and Illini Purdue can be in good shape to win the league, and the Boilers are 7-2 away from home in conference play. Indiana and Nebraska face off in Lincoln next week too, while Illinois hosts a solid Iowa team.

in terms of the Big Ten getting multiple teams into the NCAAs things could be tricky. Nebraska is the only real lock at this point. Maryland has a high enough RPI, but the Terrapins are in danger of missing the Big Ten Tournament since they may not finish in the top eight of the league standings. Rutgers has done very well outside the conference, but they have been terrible in it and will also likely miss the conference tourney. Illinois, Purdue, and Indiana would be considered Bubble teams, but if one of them can win the outright regular season title it will help their case tremendously.

The winner of the Big Ten Tournament also gets an automatic bid. Purdue can clinch a Big Ten Tounament bid next week with a pair of wins.

Also of note, Iowa will be the one team "in the clubhouse" in the final week of the season. It closes Big Ten play next week at Illinois and it is the team with the final week off from conference play, as it hosts Florida International.

If I had to speculate, I would say that Purdue needs to win at least five of its last seven games in the regular season to have a chance. Getting a win or two in the Big Ten Tournament would also help tremendously. Purdue made the 2018 tournament and had 34 regular season wins, but it had a higher RPI and it won three games in the Big Ten Tournament before losing in the championship game.

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