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Is perceived lack of motivation for a bowl game a factor or fallacy?

The narrative is clear for the Music City Bowl.

Purdue is happy to be in Nashville and Auburn is most certainly not. Back-to-back bowl games for the first time since 2012, and a rally from three straight losses to open the season, have Boilermakers fans nearly buying up their allotment of bowl tickets. A 7-5 record at Auburn with losses to LSU, Georgia, and Alabama represents a season to be forgotten and talk of next season is already taking place.

Purdue fans are still celebrating the choice of its head coach with Jeff Brohm deciding to stay in West Lafayette. Auburn fans are questioning the decision of head coach Gus Malzahn to allow his offensive coordinator to take the same job at Kansas and for Malzahn to go back to his old ways as the primary play-caller for this bowl game and future seasons as well.

The conflicting atmosphere surrounding these two teams is likely a significant reason the betting line in Las Vegas for this Purdue-Auburn matchup continues to sit at making the more-talented Tigers team just a four-point favorite.

"You're going to get our best shot, that's for sure," Purdue quarterback David Blough said. "You've got senior leaders on the team who are going to make sure we try to end this thing the right way."

However, while this perception of two teams in the 2018 Music City Bowl likely won't change by the 1:30 p.m. ET kickoff on Dec. 28 it isn't based on hard data or fact. The numbers show tat preseason Top-10 teams, that end up playing in non-New Years Day bowl games have a high winning percentage and have won their last five bowl matchups. Auburn was ranked as high as No,. 7 early in the season after defeating Washington in the season opener in Atlanta. The Tigers were No. 9 in the preseason AP poll.

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Purdue coach Joe Tiller is dunked with water by his players during the closing seconds of the of the 2002 Sun Bowl. Purdue beat Washington, 34-24.
Purdue coach Joe Tiller is dunked with water by his players during the closing seconds of the of the 2002 Sun Bowl. Purdue beat Washington, 34-24. (David J. Phillip/Associated Press)

Here's the data: Since 2000, teams that have fallen from the Top 10 of the preseason Associated Press poll and into a bowl game played before New Year's Day are 38-16, which is a 70 percent winning percentage.

"I do think it's both meaningful and really hard to measure," Associated Press college football writer Ralph Russo said. "It is big reason why we make way too much of bowl records. But if you're the SEC and you shout your great bowl record from the mountain tops, you can't then have it both ways and discount losses as well, (saying things like) we didn't care about that game."

Purdue has been in this boat in the post season. Sort of.

Research back to 1980 finds Purdue on this list of nationally perceived disappointing seasons. That year, the Boilermakers were ranked No. 9 in the preseason poll and still managed a nine-win season and a 28-25 victory in the Liberty Bowl. However, 38 years ago, only 15 bowl games existed and therefore, the Liberty Bowl was seen as a much more prestigious destination than it is today.

Purdue has been the recipient of playing a team in a bowl game on the downside of its disappointing season. In 2002, Purdue won the Sun Bowl over a Washington team that was ranked No. 9 in the preseason poll but stumbled to a 7-6 season in its final season under Rick Neuheisel.

Two other teams in this bowl season with a similar fate as Auburn will play each other as Wisconsin and Miami (Fla.) will play in the Pinstripe Bowl on Dec. 27. This season isn't the first time Auburn finds itself on such a list of preseason Top-10 teams tumbling to a December bowl game or worse. The Tigers program could be described as, a roller coaster ride of a program over the last decade that has gone from winless in the SEC in 2012 and subsequently firing its coach and winning the league and playing for the national title the very next season,

The Tigers have had two other such seasons and a 2008 campaign to ended with a 5-7 record and no bowl eligibility. In 2015, Auburn stumbled from No. 6 in the preseason poll to unranked by the end of September due to poor play from former five-star prospect quarterback Jeremy Johnson and a transition to Will Muschamp's second stint as the program's defensive coordinator. However, Auburn managed to salvage a dominating 31-10 win over Memphis and quarterback Paxton Lynch, an eventual first-round pick, in the Birmingham Bowl. Auburn's 2003 season saw its last trip to the Music City Bowl when the Tigers lost its first two non-conference games to Southern California and Georgia Tech before rallying to get to an 8-5 mark including a 28-14 win over Wisconsin in the bowl game. The following season Tommy Tuberville led Auburn to a 13-0 season but were shut out of the BCS National Championship Game.

The Music City Bowl has recently hosted another SEC that saw its season fail to meet expectations as Tennessee's 2016 campaign started with a preseason No. 9 mark. Yet a three-game losing streak in October saw the Volunteers tumble out of the polls. However, Butch Jones' unranked squad managed to get a nine-win season by defeating No. 22 Nebraska 38-24 in Nashville.

Notable bowl losses by preseason Top 10 teams
Team Preseason Rank Bowl Loss

2015 Oregon

No. 7

47-41 to TCU in Alamo Bowl

2014 Oklahoma

No. 4

40-6 to Oregon in Russell Athletic Bowl

2012 USC

No. 1

21-7 to Georgia Tech in Sun Bowl

2010 Nebraska

No. 8

19-7 to Washington in Holiday Bowl

2002 Washington

No. 9

34-24 to Purdue in Sun Bowl

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