Purdue Baseball Travels to Michigan

This weekend is a very big one in the Big Ten baseball race. The top 6 teams are not only looking to lock up at least a Big Ten Tournament spot, they are all playing each other and seeking separation in the race. Purdue is at Michigan. Indiana is at Nebraska. Iowa is at Illinois. Those six teams are all within two games of first place. This is Iowa’s final conference series since they have already played 21 games, so they will be “in the clubhouse” after playing Illinois this weekend.

For Purdue, the Boilers just need to win. As long as they win they are guaranteed to gain ground on Michigan and the losers of the other two series. In terms of seeding for the Big Ten Tournament Purdue would lose a tiebreaker with Iowa and Indiana since they lost both of those series 2-1, and the Michigan and Illinois tiebreakers are to be determined.

Purdue (32-17, 12-6 Big Ten) at Michigan (26-23, 11-7 Big Ten)

Friday to Sunday, May 10-12 / Watch B1G+

Series Opener: Friday at 6 p.m. ET

Middle Game: Saturday at 2 p.m. ET

Series Finale: Sunday at 1 p.m. ET

PROBABLE PITCHING MATCHUPS

Friday: Jordan Morales (Grad, LHP) vs. TBA for Michigan

Saturday: Luke Wagner (Sr, LHP) vs. TBA for Michigan

Sunday: Kyle Iwinski (Sr, RHP) vs. TBA for Michigan

Both teams are coming off of tough rivalry series losses last weekend. Michigan dropped two of three at Michigan State last week, with two of the games going to extra innings. They have played a tough non-conference schedule that includes top 25 teams in Oklahoma State, Oregon State, Arkansas, and UC Irvine. They dropped all of those, but have done relatively well in Big Ten play. They do not have a series sweep in conference play, nor have they been swept. They have beaten Ohio State, Penn State, Maryland, Minnesota, and Iowa 2-1 while losing to Michigan State last week.

Purdue’s pitching vs. Michigan’s hitting should decide the weekend. Michigan is 12th in the conference with a .261 average, and Purdue’s starters had a very good series against Indiana. Jordan Morales was solid in getting the win on Friday, while Luke Wagner and Kyle Iwinski each had shutouts through six innings in their starts. That has helped Purdue have the second best ERA in the conference at 4.73.

Of course, the starters can only go so far. The bullpen for Purdue needs to be much better than it was last weekend. In the final two games of the weekend Purdue gave up zero runs in the first six innings of each game, but a combined 15 in the last three innings. The four-run ninth inning on Sunday was the most acute problem.

Connor Caskenette and Luke Gaffney continue to power the middle of the lineup. They are the top two players in the conference in RBI with 66 for Caskenette and 62 for Gaffney. They each have 12 home runs, but another reason Purdue lost last weekend’s series is that it failed to convert with men on base. It left 10 men on base in each of the two Indiana losses.

Purdue has a pronounced edge both in hitting and pitching. Michigan has a team ERA of 6.10 and Purdue is hitting .296 as a team. Jacob Denner gives Michigan an edge at the back end, as he is 6-4 with a 4.23 ERA and four saves in 22 appearances. He has been all over the place for Michigan, as he also has four starts.

Simply put, Purdue’s Big Ten and NCAA chances rely on winning this series this weekend, and if Purdue can get a third straight conference road sweep, even better. Purdue itself is a game out of first place in the conference behind Illinois, and it hosts the Illini next weekend. Purdue’s RPI is also currently at 58, and a road series win or sweep could push it into the top 50, which would help tremendously for the NCAA profile.

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