Jerry Palm talks Purdue's bowl scenarios
In the first of what will likely be weekly Sunday visits with CBSSports.com's Jerry Palm, the bowl-season expert talks about his rationale for projecting Purdue to face Georgia Tech in the Quick Lane Bowl on Dec. 26 in Detroit. Palm based his choice on Purdue winning two of its final three regular season games and finishing with a 7-5 record.
"I don't think Purdue will have the worst record among projected Big Ten teams. That should be Maryland," Palm said Sunday. "But Purdue's possible destination has to do with the bowl order and the Big Ten rules regarding no repeats in bowls. So, for example, Purdue pretty much can't go to San Francisco, because the league wouldn't allow that. Because of that, the way I project things, Purdue gets dropped down to Detroit."
In his Nov. 4 projections, Palm also has Northwestern in the Tax Slayer Bowl in Jacksonville, Penn State in the Pinstripe Bowl in New York, Michigan State in the Outback Bowl in Tampa, Wisconsin in the Citrus Bowl in Orlando and Iowa in the Holiday Bowl in San Diego. He has Ohio State in the Rose Bowl in Pasadena.
Palm also suggests that the Resource Bowl, played on Dec. 26 at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas, could be in play for Purdue or a Big Ten team.
"If all the spots aren't filled, San Francisco could pass on a Big Ten team, especially if their choice is Maryland, and choose someone who is a better geographic match," Palm said. "In this case, Dallas can come into play for the conference."
But Palm says there is a lot that can happen in the next few weeks. And of course, Purdue still has a chance to finish the pre-bowl season with as high as a 9-4 record. In that scenario, the Boilermakers would be not only the West Division champion, but also winners of the Big Ten Championship game, which will be played Dec. 1 in Indianapolis.
Palm said that even if the Boilermakers finish 8-4 and don't qualify for Indianapolis, they are not guaranteed a trip to Florida or San Diego for the league's upper-echelon bowl destinations.
"You have to consider who you compare Purdue with and also consider what bowls want," Palm said. "Bowls want people in seats and eyes on televisions. For Purdue (compared to) Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Penn State, they are all definitely going to be more desired by bowl games than Purdue. Michigan State, maybe, maybe not. Northwestern is definitely not more desirable than Purdue, however if the Wildcats are division champions (as Palm projects) you can expect the league to protect them from getting passed over repeatedly."
Under its bowl agreement, the Big Ten practically has the final say in where teams go in the postseason, outside of the New Year's Day Six bowls and the College Football Playoff.
"The bowls will make requests of the Big Ten, but the Big Ten will go through those requests and try as best as it can to fulfill the requests (of the bowls), " Palm said. "The conference doesn't want its teams to not only travel to the same bowl, but it also wants to limit schools from going to the same area if possible.
"For example, Michigan has been to Florida a ton. In my projection for this year, of course, that doesn't matter because I have Michigan in a New Year's Six bowl, but the league wants to make sure there is a good experience and a good incentive for fans to attend these games."
In Palm's estimation, Purdue's best chance to dramatically improve its bowl locale (i.e. a Florida/San Diego bowl) is to win its division. That is something Palm calls "a longshot" considering it means the Boilermakers would have to win out, and Northwestern would have to lose twice down the stretch with games at Iowa, at Minnesota and home to Illinois remaining on the Wildcats' schedule.
"The Big Ten won't send a division champion to Detroit," Palm said. "Who would have thought that back in August, the Purdue-Northwestern game would decide the division champion?"
Other Week 10 bowl projections
NewESPN Kyle Bonagura: Dec. 27 - New Era Pinstripe Bowl (Bronx, New York) vs. Virginia
ESPN Mitch Sherman: Dec. 31 - TaxSlayer Gator Bowl (Jacksonville, Florida) vs. South Carolina
SB Nation Jason Kirk: Dec. 31 - TaxSlayer Gator Bowl (Jacksonville, Florida) vs. South Carolina
Orlando Sentinel Brant Parsons: Dec. 27 - New Era Pinstripe Bowl (Bronx, New York) vs. Miami (Fla.)
CollegeFootballNews.com: Dec. 27 - New Era Pinstripe Bowl (Bronx, New York) vs. Virginia
Sports Illustrated Eric Single: Dec. 31 - San Diego County Credit Union Holiday Bowl (San Diego, California) vs. Arizona State
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