The Big Ten Race at the Quarter Pole

The 20-game Big Ten Conference basketball season is a grueling marathon. This is the sixth year of said schedule and no team has gotten through without at least four losses. Since the conference has some of the toughest home courts in college basketball that is not a surprise. The 2018-19 season was the first year the league went to 20 games and the champions have been as follows:

2019: Michigan State & Purdue – 16-4

2020: Maryland, Michigan State, & Maryland – 14-6

2021: Illinois – 16-4 (Michigan was technically the champion at 14-3, but played three fewer games)

2022: Illinois & Wisconsin – 15-5

2023: Purdue – 15-5

Even in the 18 game era it was rare for a team to get through with less than three losses. Michigan State in 2018, Wisconsin in 2015, Ohio State in 2011, and Wisconsin in 2008 were the only teams to get through at 16-2 during that stretch. You have to go all the way back to 2005 to find a team that made it through the league with even just one loss.

That’s why Tuesday’s loss in Lincoln isn’t horrible. The Cornhuskers are a probably tournament team at the moment, and they played one of their best games of the season while Purdue’s first half might have been its worst of the year.

Purdue was 15-5 last year, got a 1 seed, and won the conference by three full games. With an even stronger non-conference profile this year a similar result probably nets another 1 seed. Will it be enough to win the league, however?

As we have reached the quarter pole of the league season the picture of who is a contender and who is not is coming into shape. Here is how things stand right now.

True Title Contenders:

Wisconsin – 4-0

Northwestern – 3-1

Purdue – 3-2

Nebraska – 3-2

Illinois – 2-1

I really think your league champion(s) will come from this group of five teams. Wisconsin is here because they are the last unbeaten, and that is with two really good road wins at Michigan State and Ohio State. They will benefit from not having to go to Champaign or Evanston among the other four in this group.

Purdue is undoubtedly the best team on paper, but they have been tripped up twice in conference play. The Boilers lost two of their first four games and won the title in 2019, but losses are losses. You don't want to be in a position where you need help and unless Purdue goes on a 15-game win streak it will need help somewhere. Purdue might have the toughest schedule, too, as it has already lost at Northwestern and Nebraska, it still has to go to Illinois and Wisconsin, and it has to host Northwestern and Wisconsin.

Northwestern deserves to be here because they have already beaten the two preseason favorites in Evanston. If they win Saturday in Madison they will be a real threat. Nebraska’s dominant win over Purdue showed they can beat anyone, and they also beat Michigan State.

Finally, Illinois has only played three conference games before tonight, but they should be around for the whole race. Their March 5th game at home against Purdue could be huge. A win over Michigan State tonight also all but ends the Spartans' chances.

Of these five I think Wisconsin has the edge. Their schedule is easier than Purdue’s and they are already ahead of the Boilers. Their toughest game before hosting Purdue is at Nebraska on February 1, and they could be 9-0 in the league entering that game.

NCAA Tournament Teams and Spoilers

Ohio State – 2-3

Michigan State – 1-3

Neither of these teams are winning the league, but they are good enough to make sure someone else loses it. No one knows who the real Michigan State is at this point. The Spartans are good enough to beat anyone in the country. They also can look terrible for stretches and get blown out. They have some real 2019-20 Purdue vibes about them.

Ohio State is similarly talented, but recent stumbles to Indiana and Wisconsin are calling them into question. They look one of those 9 seeds that gives a top seed fits in round 2.

Complete Mystery

Minnesota – 3-1

Indiana – 3-2

Can the Gophers play their way onto the Bubble? The computer numbers are not good and their best non-conference win is over Maine, but they are at least taking care of business against some of the league’s lesser teams. The home win over Nebraska looks really good right now, too. I don’t think they can sustain this pace for a title push, but a .500 finish in league play would be great.

As for Indiana, I can’t figure them out. The Hoosiers seem to play to their level of competition, especially in Assembly Hall. They took Kansas to the wire there, but outside of those confines the Hoosiers are 2-4. They also barely got past Morehead State, FGCU, and Army at home. Purdue should be wary because Mike Woodson has had Matt Painter’s number the last two years.

Might Be Feisty at Home

Penn State – 2-3

Iowa – 1-3

Rutgers – 1-3

Maryland – 1-3

These are the teams that the true title contenders need to win at. Yes, Maryland had its lengthy home win streak snapped by Purdue, but they have not shown much of anything. Penn State’s anti-home court advantage is well known. Iowa can score a lot, but can’t play defense. Rutgers is a different team in Piscataway and can pull an upset, but they don’t look like a tourney team.

At the Bottom

Michigan – 1-3

It is quickly becoming a rough year in Ann Arbor. They did win at Iowa, but that is one of the few highlights on a season that already looks over. The Wolverines just do not have the ability to finish games. They have six losses by six points or less, so they can hang around, but they are the lone team in the conference under .500 overall

So Who Wins?

Any team that gets to 16-4 is going to be right there for the title. That has historically been good enough since the conference expanded. It is still early, but Wisconsin appears to have the favorable schedule if it can split with Purdue. Illinois has a favorable slate too. They have already played in West Lafayette and they do not have to go to Bloomington or Columbus, but they also do not host Wisconsin.

I think it ultimately comes down to Purdue, Wisconsin, and Illinois, with the Badgers having a slight edge right now because of schedule and an assist from Nebraska and Northwestern in knocking off Purdue for them. If they are 9-1 or 10-0 headed into their first game with the Boilers they will have a chance to put the race away early.

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