Looking Ahead: An early 2020-2021 Purdue prospectus

More ($): Five points to consider in advance of next season

Though nothing was known for certain, the abrupt ending to the 2019-2020 season may have spared Purdue an indignity by its program's lofty standards — missing the NCAA Tournament.

That said, things do seem to set up well for the Boilermakers to rebound decisively in 2020-2021, with a compelling combination of personnel, experience and impact-level newcomers.

Here's a comprehensive look at Purdue's team next season, on paper, as of today. It does obviously remain to be seen whether the roster remains static, but we can say at least that additions would seem unlikely.

Trevion Williams and Matt Haarms return as essentially Purdue's foundation next season, and while the combination probably didn't quite produce as was hoped in 2019-2020, an off-season reset may do both some good.

By most measures, Williams was very good this season, averaging team-bests of 11.5 points and 7.6 rebounds, and serving much of the season essentially as Purdue's go-to guy. No one will dispute, though, that he was capable of even more.

It's important to note that he was just a true sophomore this season, and his ability level suggests he has a chance to go from good to very good, maybe even great, over the course of the next few months. He made comments late in the season that suggested an awareness that he needs to be more aggressive, more relentless, more consistent and improve at the foul line. That's his path to taking his game to another level.

But Williams could be one of the better low-post scorers in college basketball next season, one of its best rebounders and one of its best passers out of the post. That may sound like a mouthful given his relatively modest numbers this season, but Purdue's seen such jumps from one year to the next before and Williams has proven himself capable of big things.

Haarms' junior season was up and down, affected, clearly, by a series of injuries, none of them devastating on their own, but all of them enough to seemingly hold him back to some extent.

Additionally, he spent roughly a third of the season starting games at forward alongside Williams, an experiment that worked out OK against certain sorts of teams — slower-tempo Virginia being one — but ultimately didn't yield much net gain and did seem to marginalize Haarms to a certain extent, though he did play plenty of center in those games, too.

Lastly, and probably most importantly, Haarms' offensive productivity was hampered by defenses' approaches vs. Purdue. Opponents didn't pay nearly the respect to Boilermaker guards as they rightfully did Carsen Edwards and Ryan Cline the year before, so some of Haarms' most reliable sources of scoring — pick-and-roll and ball-screen slips — were only occasionally there this season. In part as a result, Haarms' efficiency dipped considerably.

It's not like his season was a wash, however.

Through the first seven games of the season, Haarms shot 70 percent from the floor, prior to then sliding over to forward for the Virginia game.

Against Minnesota in the Big Ten re-opener, he was 11-of-16 for 26 points and nine rebounds against NBA-bound Daniel Oturu in the Boilermakers' double-overtime win.

Two games later, he hurt his hip at Michigan, missed the second half and both overtimes. He didn't miss any games because of it, but whether related or not, that Minnesota form wasn't really seen again consistently, though his second-half burst in Purdue's win at Indiana was crucial in that victory.

One thing, too: Haarms did expand his three-point-shooting participation this season.

After going 7-of-25 as a sophomore, he was 10-of-32 as a junior in seven fewer games. He was 10-of-24 at one time before finishing the season 0-for-8, his misses generally being long.

Haarms wound up averaging 8.6 points and 4.6 rebounds for the season.

If he's consistently healthy next season, it stands to reason to suggest his productivity can increase, but there are systemic factors as well that may not change next season unless opponents take a different approach to guarding Purdue.

Of note, too, for both big men is this: This was almost a historic year for the Big Ten in terms of the depth of quality big men in the league.

It will thin out. Oturu is already gone. Maryland's Jalen Smith will almost certainly follow. Ohio State's Kaleb Wesson, Iowa's Luka Garza, Michigan State's Xavier Tillman and Illinois' Kofi Cockburn could still follow. Time will tell. Michigan's Jon Teske graduates.

Point is, Purdue could have more of an advantage on the interior next season than it did this season, simply thanks to attrition.

Purdue is due to return sophomore Emmanuel Dowuona and welcome freshman Zach Edey, both centers. With Williams and Haarms back, both have time on their side in terms of their respective developments.

One thing is for certain: Minutes are going to be hotly contested for Purdue in its backcourt.

The Boilermakers return all but Jahaad Proctor among the guards who played significant roles this season, and of those who return, Eric Hunter and Sasha Stefanovic are now amply experienced upperclassmen and Isaiah Thompson no longer a greenhorn. (Note: Anticipating Nojel Eastern will play a variety of roles next season, we are viewing him as sort of a utility player for these purposes.)

All three should show the benefits of seasoning, whether it's in terms of their carrying out of offense or awareness and savvy getting the ball inside. Purdue struggled to score this season, and guard play was no small part of it, but all three did positive things this season.

Hunter was Purdue's second-leading scorer, its leader in assists and a pleasant surprise defensively.

Stefanovic shot 38.3 percent from three-point range, shot a couple opponents straight out of Mackey Arena, won at least two games for Purdue with clutch threes (Minnesota and at Northwestern) and by the end of the season was commanding significant respect from defenses.

Thompson was a 36-percent three-point shooter — 40 percent over the season's final dozen games — and made a number of big shots on the road. He gave Purdue a little bit of scoring off the bounce and a bit of an extra gear in the open floor.

Again, the benefits of experience should be evident in all three.

If they're not, nothing is promised.

Jaden Ivey and Ethan Morton are two of the finest guard prospects Matt Painter has signed in his decade-and-a-half coaching his alma mater. Together, the pair of incoming freshmen are easily the best pair of guards Purdue's welcomed in the same recruiting class under Painter.

And both bring skill sets that line up well with existing needs.

For a team that struggled to score this season, the backcourt very much included, Ivey is a scorer, a well-rounded offensive player who's been known to play with an urgency offensively that could really matter for Purdue as early as next season. He's proven at pre-college levels to be a player who can get his own shot, who's very good using ball screens to penetrate, who's outstanding at the rim, and dynamic in the open floor.

How quickly that all translates to the college level remains to be seen.

This past year's team wasn't Painter's best passing team.

Morton may be the best passer he's ever recruited, right up there with Dakota Mathias, Ryan Cline, Lewis Jackson, etc.

The 6-foot-5ish guard is renowned for his basketball IQ, intelligence and composure, which all could enhance his chances to carry a prominent role right away.

Brandon Newman will be Purdue's most physically imposing true guard next season and could give the Boilermakers another perimeter shooting threat. Purdue expects effort to be no issue for the redshirt freshman, and he's always been considered a solid prospect defensively, in part because of his strength, and in part because of his competitiveness. Here's guessing he is particularly eager to get on the floor.

Purdue obviously would like to be more consistent in this area of the game, but also more balanced.

By the middle of the season, opponents had ID'd Stefanovic as a pressure point for Purdue, a marked man who if slowed down or stopped altogether would limit Purdue considerably. They treated him accordingly, and at times, Stefanovic played off it effectively, getting to the basket, or setting up teammates for shots.

But it would have helped Purdue to present more consistent threats otherwise, and though Eric Hunter shot well for the season, he did so as more of a spot-up, catch-and-shoot-type as opposed to the sort of weapon the Boilermakers would run offense for.

There's a bit of a difference — particularly for Purdue within its offensive designs — between effective shooters and effective shooters on the move, the latter being the type Purdue may call more plays for, as it did so often for Stefanovic.

Thompson could be one of those players next season. Many of his threes this season came in transition — he was very good from the wings — or spot-up opportunities in halfcourt offense. Again, experience should benefit him, as should a full — or whatever full can mean this particular year — off-season. Thompson's potential offensively is intriguing because of his shooting acumen combined with his quickness and potential to play off closeouts using the dribble.

The newcomers will make an impact.

Newman was regarded as one of the best long-range shooters in his class nationally. He may be akin to Stefanovic in terms of giving Purdue another true off-the-ball shooter. It's always an adjustment for young shooters learning how to use screens, run plays, etc., but he has had the redshirt year to learn such things.

Ivey's release is a bit unconventional, but his outcomes as a three-point shooter have been good and his release notably quick. He's shown at prior levels he can pull up in ball screens and let it fly, and like Thompson, he possesses the ability to go past people who close out on him. His combination of quickness and size and speed will be one of a kind on Purdue's roster next season.

Morton will likely be a low-volume offensive player as a Boilermaker. That's sort of the nature of his makeup. But he has shown he can make open threes and threes off the dribble in high school, potentially adding another layer to a more well-rounded shooting arsenal for Purdue.

Additionally, the forward spot/4 can be a very important floor-stretching position offensively, and if Nojel Eastern plays more there, that may not necessarily materialize, but there are other options, too.

Aaron Wheeler struggled badly as a sophomore, but will have a chance next season to rebrand this past season as a fluke. He's shown he can make shots. And in high school redshirt freshman Mason Gillis was a good shooter relative to his position as a post player and impressed during his redshirt season with his shooting.

Lastly, Haarms has proven he can shoot from the 5, and Williams made three threes as a sophomore on nine tries, and has said that's an area of his game he can expand, as Ohio State's Kaleb Wesson did this season. While Purdue would likely much prefer the 260-plus-pounder asserting himself around the basket and boards, perhaps his ambitions do yield some results.

Purdue was vulnerable to the three-pointer at times this season and its ball-screen defense sometimes lapsed, but at the end of the day, the Boilermakers were 11th nationally in defensive efficiency per KenPom and by and large a difficult team to score on, especially when they kept turnovers to a minimum.

While it may have to play through a little more first-year-player inexperience next season than it did this season, it will upgrade from physical and athletic perspectives with this off-season's trade-off between departing players and incoming ones. Again, Hunter, Stefanovic and Thompson should benefit from experience and Purdue collectively should benefit from experience playing together.

And, still, Purdue has an elite defender in Nojel Eastern, an outstanding shot-blocker and solid ball-screen defender at center in a presumably healthier Haarms.

Where Eastern fits into the lineup remains to be seen. He could line up at a number of positions, and it could take some reconfiguration at times to work into the right matchups, but Purdue may have more interchangeability in its personnel next season, which could make such things easier. Time will tell on that, but that's what things look like on paper.

Eastern is one of the best defensive players in the country, and whether he's guarding on the ball or away from the ball — he's done both with equal proficiency the past two seasons especially — he is quite a luxury for Purdue.

Purdue does have the makings of a good defensive team next season. It can be something more if, for example, Williams becomes a little quicker-footed guarding away from the basket, Stefanovic improves his quickness if he can and Wheeler improves his physicality and attentiveness, for a couple examples.

Williams can be one of the best rebounders in the game. He just led a Big Ten full of great big men in offensive rebounding as a sophomore. A double-digit-average rebounding season is within his reach.

Purdue will absolutely miss Evan Boudreaux's motor on the glass. It was crucial during the back half of this season. Expecting Gillis to replace it is asking too much, but he does come with a reputation for his energy and tenacity on the glass, similar to Boudreaux.

Offensive rebounding has been such a big deal for Purdue the past two season and in the best-case scenario that continues, and between Williams, Eastern, Haarms and perhaps Gillis, in addition to some bigger, active guards, perhaps it can.

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