Opponent View: Purdue at Northwestern

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Northwestern is winning, it's just taking the Wildcats a bit longer.

NU has won a remarkable three straight overtime games, including at Nebraska on Saturday, putting it in position for a solid late-season run. We talked to WildcatReport.com's Louie Vaccher for this week's Opponent View.

GoldandBlack.com: What has Northwestern done well in overtimes to be able to win three straight?

Vaccher: "Northwestern’s defense has been playing well most of the season, so I don’t think their performance in overtimes has been surprising. They stop the run and their biggest weakness is probably big plays over the top, and on a 25-yard field, that doesn’t really come into play.

"The surprise has been the offense, which seems to flip a switch in overtime, no matter what happens in regulation. The Wildcats have had the ball five times in extra time over the last three games and came away with five touchdowns. Against Iowa, the Wildcats managed to generate a touchdown once in 12 possessions in regulation; in overtime, they went one-for-one. Against Michigan State, they scored two touchdowns in 11 possessions, and then went three-for-three in the OTs. Against Nebraska, they crossed the goal line three times in 13 drives before cashing in on their only overtime turn.

"Justin Jackson and Clayton Thorson talked last Saturday about the team’s confidence in the extra session, and it shows. Looking at things logically, they seem to be built for the short fields in overtime. The Wildcats have an elite back in Jackson who does his best work in tight spaces and excels at turning a loss into positive yardage. The passing game doesn’t go vertical very often and its bread-and-butter are short crossing routes; again, ideal for a quarter of the field.

It’s funny: Northwestern is just 3-3 in regulation this season, with just one win over a Power Five opponent (Maryland). But in overtime, the Wildcats are 3-0 and have beaten two teams (Iowa and Michigan State) ranked ahead of them in the CFP Rankings."

GoldandBlack.com: After a 2-3 start, the Wildcats looked like their season might be lost, which would have been a surprise given expectations. What did Pat Fitzgerald do to turn it around?

Vaccher: "I think three things happened to drastically change Northwestern’s fortunes this season.

"For one, Jackson got healthy. He is Northwestern’s best player and the guy that makes the offense go. Earlier this season, he was dinged up with an undisclosed lower-body injury. He played through it, but he was clearly not himself; you could especially see it in NU’s losses to Duke, Wisconsin and Penn State, when he rushed for a grand total of 109 yards combined. He has gotten healthier each week. His rushing numbers haven’t always been outstanding — he has cracked the 100-yard mark just four times all year — but he affects the game in so many ways. Michigan State limited him to 41 yards on 17 carries, but he caught seven passes for 51 yards and piled up some big YAC, delivered several big blocks in pass protection and even threw a touchdown pass.

"The second thing is that the much maligned offensive line steadily improved. They were the whipping boys for coaches and media early in the season, and deservedly so. They weren’t opening holes for Jackson in defenses stacking the box to stop him, and they couldn’t protect Thorson very well, either. Thorson got sacked eight times at Wisconsin and was dropped a total of 16 times in Northwestern’s three losses. During this four-game winning streak, however, they have been much better. Northwestern ran the ball well against Maryland and Nebraska, and Thorson has been sacked more than once in just one of the last four games (against Iowa).

"The last factor is maybe the biggest one: The schedule. Northwestern opened Big Ten play against Wisconsin, a Top-10 team, and Penn State, which was also one until the last couple weeks. Those two teams, with very strong front sevens, just destroyed NU’s still developing offensive line. Eventually, the defense wore out in those games, too. But since then, the schedule has lightened up considerably. Northwestern has a realistic shot of winning out — its remaining games are Purdue, Minnesota and Illinois — and earning a pretty decent bowl destination.

GoldandBlack.com: The rush defense has been really good, especially after the first two games. Why? Who up front is doing the work?

Vaccher: "The Wildcats’ run defense has been the one thing they’ve been able to count on since the Week 2 debacle at Duke. The Blue Devils shredded them for 233 rushing yards, but since them they’ve allowed 100 yards just twice in seven games and no one has managed more than 112 (Nebraska, last week). Northwestern’s success all starts up front. The defensive ends do a nice job setting the edge, and they are especially strong at defensive tackle. Fifth-year senior Tyler Lancaster is a beast in the middle, a 305-pounder who put up 225 pounds 35 times this summer. Behind him is Paddy Fisher, who has been a revelation at middle linebacker. A redshirt freshman who had to fill the extra-large shoes of Anthony Walker Jr., Fisher has been a tackling machine. He had 19 tackles against Michigan State, including 14 solos, and 13 last week. At 245 pounds, he is strong enough to take on blockers and then plug holes at the line of scrimmage. Then, behind Fisher, is Godwin Igwebuike, an NFL talent at safety who is outstanding in run support and can really deliver the lumber."

GoldandBlack.com: The offense has settled down a bit after an inconsistent start. What — and who — has been the difference?

Vaccher: "As I stated above, a healthy Jackson has been a key, as has the improvement of the offensive line. It’s very difficult to win in the Big Ten — or anywhere else for that matter — if you aren’t good on the offensive line. As their play got better, so did the Wildcats’ win-loss record.

"Northwestern has also had a few receivers step up when they really needed it. Macan Wilson caught five passes in three of the four consecutive wins. Flynn Nagel caught nine passes against Michigan State, while superback Cameron Green grabbed six against both Maryland and Michigan State. Teams earlier this season had a lot of success dropping safeties close to the line of scrimmage to stop Jackson and then playing man coverage on the outside. Wildcat receivers struggled getting separation at the outset of the season, but they’ve come on in recent weeks and have been able to get free."

GoldandBlack.com: What do you think we'll see on Saturday? What are the keys? Who will win?

Vaccher: "I think Purdue is catching Northwestern at a bad time. Earlier in the season, I think the Boilers would have had a real shot to win this game. But right now, the Wildcats are playing with a lot of confidence. You can’t win three straight overtime games without feeling pretty good about yourself. They resurrected the ground game against Nebraska, and when they can stay balanced they can still be a productive offense. What impressed me, though, was that they found a way to beat both Iowa and Michigan State while rushing for less than 100 yards.

"Still, this is by no means a gimme. Northwestern’s defense still gives up the occasional big play, and it only takes one or two of those to drastically change a ball game. The Wildcats will also have to take care of the football. After going interception-less against Iowa and Michigan State, Thorson had an off day and got picked twice against Nebraska, including a pick-six. He has to be sharper.

"I think Northwestern will stop Purdue’s running game, which has been surprisingly effective this season, and try to make quarterback Elijah Sindelar and his receivers beat them through the air. Sindelar has a big arm, but the Boilers don’t have a lot of weapons that can beat the Wildcats deep. Offensively, the combination of Thorson and Jackson make just enough plays to notch the victory. Purdue keeps it close, but can’t quite get it done. I’ll call it Northwestern 27 Purdue 20."

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