Matt Painter has been leery of over-signing his recruiting classes for the bulk of his Purdue career.

Now, he may have to change.

This winter, the NCAA may pass legislation allowing student-athletes to transfer once during their careers without penalty, i.e. the organization's long-standing year-in-residence requirement mandating they sit out a year of competition when transferring laterally or upward.

The ramifications of this change would be significant.

Purdue's coach has been a staunch opponent of the change for myriad reasons, as have many other coaches.

They may not win this fight, though.

And if they don't, things will change.

"We're going to lose some guys," Painter said last week. "That's going to happen. But we're going to get some guys, too."

It will put Purdue and those like it in position to have to make decisions with their scholarships when recruiting.

Do you leave scholarships open expecting to acquire transfers every year?

Or do you over-book your scholarships every year knowing you may lose transfers every year?

For Painter, the answer may be the latter.

Rarely has he over-signed at Purdue. One example was when Purdue signed Donnie Hale out of high school, with the understanding that if a scholarship didn't open, he'd attend prep school. That's what happened. Purdue would have pulled a similar maneuver with Sasha Stefanovic out of high school, but a scholarship opened up before that decision even had to be made, accommodating the in-state guard right away.

"I think signing over is going to be a real thing, instead of every now and then where you hear this school did it or that school did it, because we can do it in our league one time a year," Painter said. "We've done it a couple of times in 15 years.

"I think it's going to be a regular thing, and people are going to have a tough time wrapping their head around it right away, but when you see all the trading of baseball cards this spring it's going to be ridiculous."

This affects Purdue right now.

Currently, Purdue has two scholarships to offer for its 2021 recruiting class, one of which has already been claimed by four-star big man Caleb Furst.

If Purdue were to oversign, then it would fill both the remaining scholarship and another, anticipating attrition of some kind this spring if not sooner. It would take a two-man class to three — meaning it could take two more players, when it has live offers out right now to high-level prospects Harrison Ingram, Trey Kaufman and Blake Wesley — but then also potentially ripple through future classes, including taking next year's four-man class to a whopping five.

"If it's the right players (I'll oversign)," Painter said, suggesting that to be an annual approach. "I'd oversign and still think I could get a player in the spring because people will leave."

While the transfer market is certain to gain even more prominence in college basketball recruiting in the years to come should this rule pass, Painter says he'll keep doing what he's been doing, focusing on the best high school players he can get who he feels fit well in his program. There'd be no way around him the Boilermaker staff having to play the transfer game, though, too, as schools at all levels will do.

"I feel terrible for the low- to mid-major schools, because when this happens, we're all going to have a tough time keeping our players, but they're going to have a real tough time," Painter said. ""I don't even know if they'll keep recruiting high school guys.

"The elite programs, the blueblood programs, they're gonna be able to lose guys to the draft in the spring and then cherry-pick who they want, and that's going to filter down to the top 20 schools like ourselves. We're going to get some of those guys. It's not like we're going to be left out."

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