Ahead of Purdue's roadtrip to East Lansing on Friday night, Ryan O'Bleness of Spartans Illustrated chats with Boiler Upload about Jonathan Smith's first year at Michigan State, Aidan Chiles' up-and-down season, injuries on the defense side of the ball and more in this week's Behind Enemy Lines.
Q: What were the expectations for Jonathan Smith in year one as head coach and has he met those?
I think most level-headed Michigan State fans understand it was going to take more than one season to clean up the mess that Mel Tucker left in his wake. There are certainly a small percentage of fans who have been vocal about the struggles under Smith, and recruiting to this point has not been incredibly inspiring, but this rebuild was always going to take time.
Smith has a vision and a process, with an eye toward building for the future. Now obviously, the goal is still to win as many games as possible in 2024, and Smith spoke earlier this week about understanding that he can't and won't be asking for patience, and he isn't a patient person himself. But people need to understand how rebuilds work and that it takes time, in my opinion. Some fans see the success that Indiana is having under Curt Cignetti in year one and question why Smith hasn't been able to replicate that, but the situations are vastly different. Cignetti brought in several veteran transfers from his previous school of James Madison who are good players and already knew the scheme, as well as other veteran transfers from across the country who have experience of playing high-level FBS football. Of course what Indiana is doing is impressive and should not be discounted (Cignetti is a terrific coach and IU is a legitimate College Football Playoff contender), but that was clearly more of a win-now strategy and now the Hoosiers are tasked with sustaining that success in the future after all of those seniors and super seniors leave after this year. Of course, MSU brought in guys to help this year too, but also focused on adding guys with multiple years of eligibility with an eye toward the future. So again, not exactly the same situation or strategy.
I've been saying since the offseason that the minimum goal for Michigan State is to make a bowl game this season. Keep in mind that the Spartans did not qualify for a bowl game in 2022 or 2023, and has not played in a bowl in three of the past four seasons overall (with the electric 2021 season being the exception). Getting a bowl bid would be a feat in year one for Smith. My personal expectations entering the campaign were a 6-6 or 7-5 regular-season record and getting a bowl berth. It hasn't been pretty, currently sitting at 4-6, but with two winnable games at home against Purdue and Rutgers left on the schedule, it is still possible to reach six regular season wins and qualify for a bowl game (and potentially get to seven wins with a bowl victory). Smith is laying the foundation to change the culture around, even if it is a slow process.
Q: Aidan Chiles got off to a rocky start, but seems to have settled in of late. How has his maturation taken shape over the course of the year?
Chiles has certainly had his ups and downs this year. He's struggled with his decision-making and turnovers, especially, as he is responsible for 15 of MSU's 18 giveaways this season, including 11 interceptions. At the same time, he makes several incredible plays with his arms and legs each week to just give a brief glimpse of his potential and what he is going to become in the future. His ceiling remains incredibly high. Just like the team overall, Chiles' development was always going to require patiences by fans and by Chiles himself. He got valuable experience last season at Oregon State, but only played 100 offensive snaps. It is a big jump to go from playing every third series or so in a game to starting for a Big Ten program and there have been some obvious growing pains, which was expected.
Chiles is hard on himself and he was hoping things would come together more quickly for him than they did, but the game is starting to slow down more for him. He's taking care of the ball better and making better decisions. He's starting to understand the full offense better. His arm talent, mobility and athleticism are things that stand out on a weekly basis. It really just comes down to getting a better feel for the game, getting more comfortable as a starter, going through his progressions, making good decisions and limiting the turnovers. There has been obvious growth in all of those areas over the past few weeks. Chiles also needs a lot more help from his offensive line, a more consistent running game to take pressure off of him and for his wide receivers to create more separation. He can't do it alone.
He fully trusts Jonathan Smith and offensive coordinator/quarterbacks coach Brian Lindgren to develop him and help unlock his potential and possibly eventually even get him to the NFL. He discussed his love and trust in the staff this week and he plans to be a part of the turnaround and new culture at MSU now and in the future.
Q: Outside of Chiles, which players on Michigan State's offense will Purdue have to game plan for?
Michigan State generally uses a two-man rotation at running back with Nate Carter and Kay'ron Lynch Adams, who transferred in from UMass in the offseason. Lynch-Adams leads the team with 495 rushings yards on 106 carries (4.7 yards per carry) and has two rushing touchdowns. Carter is not far behind with 100 carries for 437 yards (4.4 yards per carry) and three touchdowns (he has a receiving touchdown as well).
True freshman wide receiver Nick Marsh is arguably the Spartans' biggest playmaker, as he leads the team in receiving yards with a freshman record of 611 yards and counting off of 37 receptions 16.5 yards per catch), and three touchdowns. Veteran Montorie Foster Jr. leads MSU in receptions with 42, but has slightly less yards than Marsh at 529 (12.6 yards per catch), and has scored two touchdowns. Aziah Johnson, Jaron Glover and Alante Brown are the other wide receivers to keep an eye on. The tight end has not been quite as productive as the Spartans had hoped, but look for Jack Velling and Brennan Parachek to be involved.
Q: Defensively, who are some Spartans that can be impact players on Friday night?
Michigan State is incredibly banged up on the defensive side of the ball, especially in the secondary. Star cornerback Charles Brantley and safety Malik Spencer are expected to miss another game come Friday, while Dillon Tatum, Chance Rucker and Khalil Majeed have been out for almost the entire season.
Look for the secondary to use Ed Woods at cornerback, along with some combination of Caleb Coley (if healthy), Ade Willie and Jeremiah Hughes opposite Woods on the outside. At safety, Nikai Martinez has been a playmaker for the Spartans this season, while true freshman Jaylen Thompson drew the start at the other safety spot with Spencer out last week, and fellow true freshman Justin Denson Jr, got some playing time as well. It is unclear if safety Armorion Smith, who missed last week's game at Illinois, will be available this week, but if he is, I would expect to see some snaps. Angelo Grose should continue to man the nickel back spot.
Jordan Turner and Cal Haladay will likely continue to be the two starting linebackers who see the most snaps, but MSU will rotate often here. Wayne Matthews III missed last week's game, but if he is back healthy, he should play a lot. Meanwhile Jordan Hall and Darius Snow will get reps as well.
At rush end, Khris Bogle will likely start again with Anthony Jones rotating in on a frequent basis. The rush end position lines up along the defensive line, and as it sounds, is a standup edge rusher position responsible for rushing the quarterback, setting the edge in the run game and occasionally dropping back into pass coverage.
MSU will heavily rotate in on the defensive line as well. At the more traditional defensive end position, Jalen Thompson (not to be confused with the aforementioned Jaylen Thompson) should draw the start again. Quindarius Dunnigan will see reps there as well, and possibly Ken Talley, but he didn't see a defensive snap against Illinois. The defensive tackle position uses a lot of bodies. Alex VanSumeren, Maverick Hansen and D'Quan Douse generally play the most snaps in the interior, while Jalen Satchell (if healthy after missing last week's game), Ben Roberts and Ru'Quan Buckley should also be in the mix,
Q: How do you see Friday night playing out?
Michigan State's goal is to make a bowl game this season and step one to accomplish that is to get a win on Friday night. This is an opportunity that the Spartans cannot squander at home against a 1-9 Purdue team that has lost nine games in a row.
As I mentioned, Michigan State is banged up in the secondary, so Purdue could make some plays in the passing game. The MSU offensive line has struggled this year and has also been hit hard with injuries, but the Spartans have a great chance to get going on the ground against a Purdue defense that ranks dead last in the Big Ten (203.3 rush yards allowed per game). I expect the Spartans to come out focused and take care of business in this one.
Prediction: Michigan State 31, Purdue 14
