Big Ten Power Rankings: January 18

Is the Big Ten any good this year? Sure, Purdue is elite. Wisconsin and Illinois are at least solid top 25 teams. Is anyone else a real lock for the NCAA Tournament at this point? Nebraska and Northwestern seem to be in that next group because they have beaten Purdue, but both have had questionable outings since that victory.

On paper 13 of the 14 teams are in the top 100 of the NET. That means they are at least within striking distance of an at large bid if they can get hot. No one seems to be able to sustain momentum this year though. Even Purdue’s longest winning streak is only seven games. Also, even though 13 teams are in the top 100, only four are in the top 30 (Purdue, Michigan State, Illinois, and Wisconsin). Purdue has four games remaining (two home, two away) against that grouping. Wisconsin has four (three home, one away), and Illinois has just three (one, home, two away).

As usual, the league will be decided by how well a team does on the road while defending its home court. Five road wins will have a team in great shape. Six or more means an almost certain league champ. That will play largely into any separation in the next few weeks. I think we will see Purdue, Illinois, and Wisconsin separate themselves as the true contenders over the next few weeks, as they have been the most consistent teams.

The League Favorite

1. Purdue Boilermakers (16-2, 5-2) – Tuesday night had the potential to be disastrous for Purdue’s title hopes. Heading on the road into a hostile venue while Big Ten leading Wisconsin headed to the least intimidating home court in the conference, the Boilermakers could have found themselves three games back in the loss column. Instead, Purdue got a dominant win over Indiana and Wisconsin fell asleep in the Bryce Jordan Mausoleum. Now it feels like the title is Purdue’s to lose, especially if it can grab a win in Iowa City this weekend. That would head into a closing stretch where Purdue has seven of its final 12 games in Mackey Arena, plus trips to Rutgers and Michigan, who are at the bottom of the standings.

Challengers

2. Wisconsin Badgers (13-4, 5-1) – Kanye Clary had other ideas Tuesday night as Penn State pulled off a shocker against the team in first place. Instead of being comfortably in the lead with a pretty favorable schedule before hosting Purdue the Badgers were pulled back to the pack. Up next is a home game against Indiana, and the Hoosiers have famously not won in the Kohl Center since the first year of the venue. In fact, the Badgers are 23-4 in the last 27 games against Indiana.

3. Illinois Fighting Illini (12-4, 3-2) – Illinois were pretty loud after losing to Purdue. That was before a pretty bad home loss to Maryland on Sunday by nine points. If you want to win the conference you cannot lose much at home, and the Illini already have a strike against them there that Purdue and Wisconsin don’t have. The good news is they get Michigan tonight and Rutgers on Sunday, so there is opportunity to make up ground.

NCAA Tournament Teams (for now)

4. Northwestern Wildcats (13-4, 4-2) – We live in a world where Northwestern could make consecutive NCAA Tournament appearances. The NET rating of 73 is kind of weak, but they have three top tier wins. The victory over Purdue is a huge resume boost as well. At minimum it erases the horrific home loss to Chicago State. After edging Maryland last night they go to Nebraska before hosting Illinois and Ohio State. If they get all three of those they have a chance to make a huge statement in Mackey Arena.

5. Nebraska Cornhuskers (13-5, 3-4) – Like Northwestern, Nebraska is going to get a lot of mileage out of beating Purdue. Unfortunately they have dropped a pair of road games to Iowa and Northwestern. Nebraska’s best chance is to keep defending home court (their lone home loss is to Creighton) while picking up a couple road wins somewhere. This team is 3-0 in the conference at home, but 0-4 on the road. The non-conference win at Kansas State is good, at least.

Bubbly

6. Iowa Hawkeyes (11-6, 3-3) – A three game winning streak has Iowa moving from 12 to six since the last power rankings. That includes a nice 18-point win over Nebraska last Friday. Now they will get a rematch with Purdue, who handled them pretty easily in West Lafayette. Iowa boasts the league’s best offense at 87.1 points per game, but the league’s worst defense at 77.5 points per game. They have done well to dig themselves out of an early 0-3 hole.

7. Michigan State Spartans (10-7, 2-4) – It is probably too late for Michigan State to factor in the conference race, but the computers love them with a NET of 21 after a difficult schedule. Now they need to get the sheer volume of wins in order to reach the tournament. They are 0-3 on the road in conference play and will have seven of their final 12 away from East Lansing. Is this the year they miss the tournament?

8. Ohio State Buckeyes (12-5, 2-4) – The computer numbers are decent with a NET of 49, but the Buckeyes have dropped three in a row. Two were on the road and one was to Wisconsin, but losing to this incarnation of Michigan is not great. After hosting Penn State this weekend they have a four-game stretch at Nebraska, at Northwestern, home against Illinois, and at Iowa that is make-or-break.

You Can’t Spell “Big Ten Basketball” without N-I-T

9. Minnesota Golden Gophers (12-5, 3-3) – The schedule strength just is not there and they are 0-2 against Tier 1 teams, but Minnesota has at least shown improvement and has already won more this season than last. They feel like that team that is just a pain for someone to play and, on the right night, they can spring an upset. A rivalry home game against Wisconsin next Tuesday means they will have a say in the race.

10. Indiana Hoosiers (12-6, 4-3) – After Indiana challenged Kansas at home and looked good against Minnesota I expected a lot more from them against Purdue. Now they are back to many of the Indiana teams of recent seasons with a lot of recruiting stars but nothing of note accomplished on the floor. With a NET of 100 and an 0-5 mark against the Tier 1 teams this is not even close to a tournament team. They had a huge chance to make a statement in that regard against Purdue and got smacked down rather convincingly, suffering their worst home defeat to the Boilermakers in nine decades.

11. Maryland Terrapins (11-7, 3-4) – One of the more disappointing teams in the conference, Maryland cannot sustain any momentum. They won at Illinois, then fell late at Northwestern last night. This is another team that is pretty good at home, so Illinois on February 17 is a dangerous game for the Illini.

Maybe They Do Something On The Right Night

12. Penn State Nittany Lions (9-9, 3-4) – It never seems to fail. No matter how bad Penn State is, they always seem to knock off one Big Ten title contender at home and throw a wrench in the Big Ten race. That’s what happened Tuesday night against Wisconsin. This is probably a team that finishes under .500 overall, but a loss in front of the dozens of fans in State College counts exactly the same as a loss in Mackey Arena if you’re a contender.

13. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (10-7, 2-4) – On January 28 Purdue heads to Piscataway with something pretty major on the line. Should the Boilers win that game Mason Gillis, Ethan Morton, Zach Edey, Carson Barrett, Chase Martin, Trey Kaufman-Renn, Brian Waddell, and Caleb Furst will complete the “Delaney Dozen” of winning at least once in every single Big Ten arena (Caveat: TKR and Waddell would have wins at Illinois, Penn State, Northwestern, and possibly Iowa from their redshirt years on the ledger). Of course, that won’t be easy. Rutgers has beaten Purdue each of the last two seasons when Purdue has been ranked No. 1. They also did just beat a Nebraska team that beat Purdue.

14. Michigan Wolverines (7-10, 2-4) – Someone this week said that Michigan basketball died so Michigan football can live. They broke a five game losing streak by beating Ohio State on Monday, but this is currently a team going nowhere. The top three of Illinois, Wisconsin, and Purdue all come to Crisler looking for a valuable road win. If any of those three drop that game it will be devastating.

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