The equation for Purdue’s volleyball team this year was going to be simple: bring back nearly everyone from a team that beat six ranked opponents and won two NCAA Tournament games in 2023, and climb another rung.

A Big Ten championship could await. So, too, could a first-ever Final Four berth.

It happened, as it often does, a little differently. The Boilermakers finished fourth in the Big Ten in 2024 after tying for third last year. They fell two spots, from No. 12 to No. 14, in the Rating Percentage Index which heavily colors the NCAA committee’s tournament seeding.

The result was that, quite visibly, Purdue did not climb another rung – not yet, anyway. The Boilermakers were seeded as a No. 4 in the NCAA Tournament, down from last year’s No. 3 spot.

“I think there was a feeling that, because we returned all these players from last year's team, that we were going to be really good,” coach Dave Shondell said. “And we were pretty good.”

They started 8-0 before trouble came in Lawrence, Kansas. Purdue lost two of three, and then returned home to face then-No. 4 Penn State in Holloway Gymnasium. The Boilers weren’t ready. They were swept in a match that contained few competitive points, much less sets.

“It was kind of a come to Jesus moment,” sophomore outside hitter Chloe Chicoine said.

That loss was the start of a theme for the Boilermakers. On the surface, this year’s team took steps forward. It won four more games this season than last, and was ranked near 10th in the country by coaches all year.

But Purdue has yet to escape one glaring Achilles heel: any team better than itself. The Boilers haven’t beaten a team ranked higher than them at game time all year.

“We did not respond the way I think that this team's capable of responding,” Shondell said of the Boilers’ marquee games. “For whatever reason.”

Now, Purdue is looking its weakness right in the eye with its season on the line: The Boilermakers play No. 1-seed and regional host Louisville Thursday in Freedom Hall, on the south side of the city, in the Sweet Sixteen.

Chicoine thinks her team is ready, better than last year – “Everybody in our gym knows that we are” – because, while Purdue hasn’t upset anyone, it has avoided big upsets itself.

What’s more, the roster’s core has now spent two full seasons together. From Shondell’s perspective, it has found in that time the right mix of personalities, bold and fiery to go along with soft and thoughtful – Purdue’s hydrogen and oxygen have, at last, become water.

“We have a lot of real intense characters,” the coach said. “Which you have to have.”

But Purdue also has senior libero Ali Hornung, who sees the big picture and keeps things in perspective, and the “pretty chill,” sophomore setter Taylor Anderson. “You need some of that,” Shondell said.

When the team nosedived in September, after the loss to Penn State, its leaders flocked to Shondell’s office. “What should we do?” Chicoine said they asked him. “What’s going on?”

Since then, Purdue has shored up areas of weakness. Shondell remarked after a strong passing performance against Loyola-Chicago in the Boilers’ second NCAA Tournament win that Purdue’s passing had gotten about 10% better since the “come to Jesus moment.” His team won 9-straight games in Holloway.

Maybe more important, though, is the off-court improvement. Shondell has seen them come together, love each other even.

“People started spending much more time in the gym together outside of actual practice time,” he said Monday. The players seated next to him at the dais, Chicoine and Hornung, nodded.

“And you could just see it in the looks on their faces that they started to believe in each other, and they started to really love each other.” Chicoine smiled at that.

“And at tournament time, those things really matter.”

Last time Purdue played a team of Louisville’s caliber, it was Penn State in University Park, and they were drummed.

But the Boilers have won five matches since, and not all cupcakes. On the road against No. 14 Oregon, they staved off a match point in the third set and stormed back to win the match. They swept No. 19 USC on the same trip.

“Our trip out west, we were there for like a full week,” Hornung said. “Had kind of a lack of sleep at some points, but we got through it.”

Purdue’s season ended out west last year, with a whimper, in a sweep to Oregon. Chicoine remembered it fresh ahead of the Boilers’ comeback on the Ducks, and said the difference this time was the confidence Purdue has found lately in its cohesiveness.

Purdue sees itself as similar to Louisville: athletic, with two great outside hitters. The Boilers aren’t unfamiliar with the ACC foe – they played the Cardinals tight in a spring exhibition match.

The affair was tied after four sets, which was all the teams had agreed to play, but Shondell was “coerced” into playing a fifth set. “We got beat pretty soundly in the fifth,” he admitted.

Plenty’s changed since then – it’s been eight months.

“Our theory all the time is just get better,” Shondell said. Even in the days before their next match, the coach assured, the Boilers can get better. It’s been 75 days since their “come to Jesus moment.”

Thursday’s match will answer a question, then:

Have they improved fast enough?