Gold and Black Radio Express: Dec. 3 Purdue-centric bowl scenario conversation with CBSSports.com's Jerry Palm
If this were an election, it would be labeled "too close to call."
That is how Jerry Palm looks at it as he assembled his final bowl projections prior to today's announcements of not only the College Football Playoff (CFP) and New Year's Day Six bowl but the entire 39-game bowl lineup.
"I am about 52 percent sure Purdue will be in Nashville for the Music City Bowl to play Kentucky," Palm said on Sunday (Dec. 3) morning. "But there are still many factors in play. I am also about 52 percent certain Ohio State gets picked to the CFP over Alabama, and all of that effects Purdue's ultimate destination. Because if OSU gets into the CFP, it will come down to Nashville or New York for Purdue."
Palm said that after the CFP is announced at 12:30 ET and the final bowl rankings are released he expects that Purdue will know its final destination by 3 p.m.
"It should be no later than a couple of hours after the rankings are announced," he said, "and the other bowl selections will likely leak out before that."
No matter the CFP scenario, Palm thinks the Big Ten is in good position to get three teams — Penn State, Ohio State and Wisconsin — into the New Year's Day Six bowls.
But how does Purdue land in the Foster Farms in Santa Clara on Dec. 27? Palm said if Alabama makes the CFP and Wisconsin or Penn State is ranked higher than Auburn — thus, the Badgers or Lions end up in the Orange Bowl — the Citrus Bowl has to pick an ACC team. If it shakes out that way, the Citrus Bowl will pick Notre Dame (considered an ACC team). Ohio State is not eligible for the Orange Bowl because (and we are getting deep in the weeds here) the Orange Bowl by contract can't have the Big Ten champion.
"If Wisconsin is in Orange Bowl, it would knock all Big Ten teams down a rung, and make the Pinstripe Bowl have to select between Purdue and Iowa," Palm said. "I am nearly 100 percent sure that the Pinstripe Bowl will pick Iowa. That would put Purdue in the Foster Farms, likely facing Washington State."
As a reminder, here is how the bowl selection works: If the Big Ten has three teams in the New Year's Day Six bowls (and the above mentioned Wisconsin or Penn State to the Orange Bowl scenario doesn't happen) — Rose, Sugar, Cotton, Peach, Orange and Fiesta — it allows the conference's other bowl eligible teams, which are Michigan, Michigan State, Northwestern, Iowa and Purdue, to in essence move up. Of the above five teams mentioned, the Big Ten likely will fill slots in the Citrus, Outback and Holiday first with Music City or TaxSlayer (very unlikely, as it will chose an ACC team), Pinstripe and Foster Farms to follow. This is based on the assumption (once again) that three Big Ten teams make the New Year's Day Six bowls, and thus there only being five eligible teams to fill those six slots. The conference, in conjunction with the bowls, has a large say on who goes where, and the order is subject to some level of negotiation between the bowls and the conference.
"Purdue has a great alumni base and remains a really attractive bowl team," said Palm, who has been projecting Purdue to Nashville for the last three weeks. "And the fact that Purdue sold nearly 10,000 tickets late for its rivalry game against Indiana doesn't hurt matters.
"There is some pent up demand in the fan base, and bowls like that. I am hearing Purdue has some momentum for Nashville. There is a lot of energy based on new coach Jeff Brohm and its energy at the end of the season. "
Iowa finished the 2017 regular season 7-5, while Purdue finished 6-6, but Purdue beat Iowa 24-15 on Nov. 18. Iowa has a reputation of traveling well with its fan base, but Purdue doesn't suffer from bowl fatigue, not having played in the postseason since Jan. 1, 2013 when it lost to Oklahoma State in the Heart of Dallas Bowl.
"The head-to-head results doesn't matter all that much. It really comes down to who the bowl thinks can sell the most tickets when you are talking about Music City or Pinstripe," Palm said. "The reason I like a Purdue-Kentucky matchup in Nashville is the fact that Brohm is a Louisville guy and it makes for a good story line for a bowl game."
Palm explained a couple of weeks ago that the way the bowl selection process works is the conferences do the placements and there is no such thing (anymore) of bowls selecting in any order. Here are projections with game dates and times:
We will know this afternoon.
More Dec. 3 Projections: SI.com | ESPN
Notre Dame's destination could effect Purdue/Big Ten: NBCSports.com
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