Could turnovers be key for Purdue against Nebraska?

If you want to talk about statistical decline from last year on Purdue's football team, you'll be talking a while.

Purdue's defense is allowing more than twice the rushing yards it gave up through three games in 2023. Quarterback Hudson Card is averaging close to half his passing yardage from that timeframe, when he threw for 371 yards in the season opener against Fresno State and followed it up with 275 against Virginia Tech. He's followed up a near-perfect opening game in 2024 with two duds.

But if you ask head coach Ryan Walters and defensive coordinator Kevin Kane what they've noticed most amid a 1-2 round of non-conference play, they might say it's the turnovers. Purdue's forced 0 so far.

"I'm well aware," Walters said Monday.

The only field-flips the Boilers' defense has provided have been 4th down stops like the one it forced against Oregon State Saturday when the Beavers, either dumb or brave, went for it from their own 28-yard line on the first drive of the game.

Purdue inside linebacker Kydran Jenkins generated pressure, and Beaver passer Gevani McCoy threw an incompletion on 4th-and-1. Purdue ran four times with Devin Mockobee on the subsequent drive, the first two carries going for 17 yards and the next two netting 0 and a fumble.

"We gotta get points there," offensive coordinator Graham Harrell said. "You can't ever put the ball on the ground, especially in the red zone. You know, we're talking about making the most of opportunities we get, we can't make mistakes that cost you football games."

Purdue turned the ball over on its next drive, too, this time in a sequence that could have been scripted in a Three Stooges film. On first down, Card dropped back and flipped his hips toward the sideline to throw a screen pass to running back Reggie Love. The ball was tipped, though, and bounced off Love's leg, straight into the defender's mitts and returned for a touchdown.

Card's interception shows the nature of turnovers and, in a way, gives Purdue some hope moving forward.

"Turnovers are funny," defensive coordinator Kevin Kane said.

They run hot and cold, sometimes the result of a perfectly executed tackle and punch of the ball, while also the product of circus plays like the Love screen. It may be too early to say Purdue's defense is bad at snatching the ball from opponents.

Kane thinks turnovers will come eventually. He described All-Pro NFL linebacker Fred Warner making tackles that include ferocious swings at the football every play. Warner has forced seven fumbles in his last 20 games, but remember, turnovers are funny; he's played four full seasons with only one punchout in each.

"I'm showing our guys Freddie Warner plays every day, as much as I can," Kane said. He said he's seen the studying transfer on the field; his players are going for the ball, it just isn't coming out.

Enter Nebraska. The Cornhuskers haven't had glaring turnover issues so far, but could perhaps be bullied into more: Their freshman quarterback Dylan Raiola played rattled in his first Big Ten game last week, and is set up for his first-ever road game this weekend.

In an overtime loss to No. 19 Illinois, Raiola threw an interception in the end zone and fumbled twice in the pocket, though both were recovered by the offense. In overtime, he succumbed to pressure and was sacked on a hopeless final play.

If Purdue is to press its full home crowd advantage over Raiola, it can do more than hope for a turnaround in luck. Gaining a lead and forcing Nebraska to throw would help, for one.

"It's easier to generate turnovers when teams are throwing the football," Walters said. "You get sack fumbles, you get tipped balls, you get quarterback pressures. Once the ball is in the air, it's kind of up for grabs."

For Kane, the secondary has to be aggressive in man coverage, and zone coverages must continue to be mixed.

"I hope Ross-Ade is rocking like it usually is, and we can go out there and confuse him a little bit," Kane said.

This Week 5 matchup has jumped out since the schedule was printed: The first Big Ten game, on homecoming night, could turn the season around or solidify its course.

Walters said he's hopeful now that his team has played three games, though he's disappointed with the results.

It could be the number in the turnover column that says how well-founded that hope is.