Covering The Tracks: Syracuse

Welcome to the fourth year, second edition of Covering the Tracks. This column is a weekly preview of the upcoming Purdue game through the lens of gambling metrics. The age-old saying is that Vegas always wins, so building upon that, we have decided to break down the game using pieces of information Vegas so graciously provides us. Whether you choose to dabble in sports gambling, or you’re just an avid Purdue fan who craves any piece of content on the Boilers leading up to game time (or both!), I hope this article can provide some helpful insight to preview the game. For those unfamiliar with sports gambling terminology, there is a glossary at the end. I use lines provided by DraftKings sportsbook, but in no way, shape, or form should this be an endorsement of their sportsbook. Use whichever you feel most comfortable with, and I certainly encourage you to shop lines at different books once you have decided how to bet. New to this year, I will be adding an “Executive Summary” at the start with a quick synopsis. For this week, we look at the 2022 Syracuse Orange.

Prior Week Recap

No article was published due to the nature of Purdue playing an FCS team. There is simply too little information available to properly analyze the game when playing a non-FBS team. I hope everyone took Purdue and the over, as the Boilers closed -37 Column remains 1-1 on the year with the over cashing in week 1, but Purdue failing to cover against Penn State.

2022 Season ATS Records

Purdue: 1-1 ATS, Overs are 1-1.

Syracuse: 2-0 ATS, Overs are 1-1. Syracuse has covered against UConn and Louisville, with the under hitting in the Louisville game, and the over hitting in the Uconn game

Betting Numbers

Current Betting breakdowns as of 9:00am on 9/15/22:

Current spread: Purdue +1.5 (Opened -1.5).

Moneyline: Purdue +105, Syracuse -125

1H Spread: Purdue +0.5, O/U 28.5

Over/Under: 60 (Opened 54.5)

Syracuse O/U: 30.5 (Over -110, Under -120)

Purdue O/U: 29.5 (Over -115, Under -115)

Betting Percentage Breakdown (As of 9/15/22 at 9:00am)

Bets: 54% on Purdue, 71% on over

Money: 50% on Purdue, 84% on over

Executive Summary

There is a small public buy on Purdue. There seems to be some sharps backing the Orange. From a bet amount standpoint, almost all of the money is on the over. People seem to think points will be scored in bunches. Jeff Brohm has seen some success against the ACC, while Dino Babers has struggled against the Big Ten, although both have a small sample size. Purdue teams under Brohm do exceptionally well in the away underdog role, but Syracuse has been perfectly fine holding their own as a home favorite ATS. Trends lean under for both schools in this spot. Both teams are underrated in a sense and not talked about, especially nationally, but there seems to be a general belief that both have great offenses. Someone other than Charlie Jones needs to step up on offense, and the defense as a whole needs to step up without Jalen Graham.

Trend Analysis for Syracuse

· Purdue is 8-3 ATS as an away underdog under Brohm. Purdue was an away underdog at Ohio State last year when the Boilers failed to cover against the Buckeyes. However, the Boilers did cover against Nebraska and Iowa in the same spot. (Kind of hilarious to look back and realize that a 9-win Purdue team was an underdog to a 3-9 Nebraska team in a game played in October, but such is the beauty of hindsight).

· Purdue is 11-5 ATS under Brohm in non-conference games. Purdue covered against Indiana State last week, and overall Brohm has excelled in these spots. Last year, Purdue covered in this spot against Tennessee, Oregon State and Connecticut. The Boilers barely failed to cover against Notre Dame last season.

· Purdue is 2-0 ATS under Brohm against the ACC, but 1-1 straight up. Jeff Brohm opened his Purdue coaching career with an impressive cover in a loss to Louisville. In what I believe to be the single best defensive game Purdue has played in the last decade, Purdue covered against Boston College in 2018 with a defensive clinic absolutely shutting AJ Dillon down.

· The over is 2-9 in games under Jeff Brohm where Purdue is an away underdog. The over hit with ease when Purdue was an away underdog at Ohio State, granted, it helps when Ohio State scores every time they touch the ball.

· In Purdue non-conference games under Brohm, the over is 8-8. The over recently cashed against Indiana State.

· In Purdue games under Brohm, against the ACC, the over is 0-2. The under barely hit in the Purdue-Louisville game, while nobody expected the low scoring affair that would come from Purdue-Boston College.

·Dino Babers has been at the helm for Syracuse since 2016. Since that time, Syracuse is 7-6-1 ATS as a home favorite. Syracuse has covered these games on average by 1.1 points. In 2021 specifically, Syracuse was 2-0 ATS in this spot.

· Syracuse is 13-10-0 ATS in non-conference play under Dino Babers. Syracuse has covered these games by an average of 1 point. Syracuse was also 3-1 ATS in this spot last year.

· Syracuse has faced two Big Ten teams under Babers. In 2020, the Orange failed to cover in a loss to Maryland 63-20. In 2021, the Orange failed to cover in a loss to Rutgers, 17-7.

· Since 2016, the over is 6-8 in games where Syracuse is a home favorite. This includes the over going 1-1 last season. The under has hit in these games by an average of .1.

· In Syracuse non-conference games under Dino Babers, the over is 9-14-0, with the under hitting by an average of 3.2 points..

· The over is 1-1 in Syracuse games, under Babers, against Big Ten opponents. The over hit in the Maryland game, while severely going under in the Rutgers game.

Miscellaneous Factors

· Hello, Jim Colletto. As already written about on GBI, Dino Babers has some pretty extensive ties to the Boilers based on his time as the WR coach under Jim Colletto. Coach Babers was also heavily discussed as a potential replacement for Darrell Hazell following the 2016 season. How realistic was Babers to Purdue? I am not sure. But I do know Babers has ties to this program and this game may mean a little more to him than most. Pittsburgh is the only former team Babers has coached against. He is 1-4 in those games.

· Dome, Sweet Dome. Purdue heads to the notorious Carrier Dome now named JMA Wireless Saturday in Syracuse, New York. This will be Purdue’s first time under Brohm playing in a true dome (Lucas Oil is close, but with the retractable roof, not technically a dome I suppose). Weather will not be a factor. I will be curious to see if the Dome plays a role at all for the Boilers. If anything, I would expect it to help the offense a little bit.

· Golden Graham. The loss of Jalen Graham is significant, obviously. The most talented player on defense, Graham has been a focal point and leader doing it all for the Boilers. I am extremely curious how the Purdue defense will react without Graham, taking on an underrated Syracuse offense with a premier running back.

· Ground Pound. Purdue showed up as an extremely one-dimensional team against Penn State and it arguably cost the Boilers the game. While Indiana State can hardly be used to justify growth, one can optimistically hope the Boilers have figured some things out and can put a competent run game on the field. Or at the very least, a coach who now recognizes there is some competency there and can trust them further.

Gambling Analysis

Numbers: We are seeing a small sharp buy on the Syracuse Orange. With 50% of the money on both sides, but only 46% of the bets on Syracuse, we can assume based on the gap between the bet & and money, that there are some sharps on the Orange with a 4% gap. What is particularly more interesting about the numbers, is how the line has moved given the influx of money. Early on, Purdue was hammered with money, and yet, the line moved from Purdue -1.5 to Syracuse -1.5 before we saw Syracuse money even out. This is a concern to me because this strikes me as a reverse money line. For those who are new, a reverse money line is a phenomenon in betting that can help illuminate a betting picture. In theory, Vegas is trying to limit their liability. So, if one team is being bet on way more heavily than the other team, Vegas may adjust the spread and move the spread toward the team being heavily bet. For example, if Purdue is -3, and everyone bets Purdue, you would expect the spread to move to -3.5 or -4. Logically, I think this makes sense. It is a similar concept to supply and demand. What is different with a reverse money line, is now you have money coming in on one team, but the spread is moving the opposite way one would expect. Early money hammered Purdue, yet the spread went from Purdue -1.5 to Purdue +1.5. This is a reverse money line move, and it gives me concern if I am a Boiler backer. Now, I would be remiss if I did not address that the line COULD have moved a little from the Jalen Graham news, but I would be fairly surprised if he alone moved the spread three points. From the total standpoint, we are seeing TONS of bets and money on the over. The O/U has already moved roughly 5.5 towards the over. Since there has been such a drastic move in points, I see a lot of value on the under. There is way too much money on the over for my liking. This feels like an over game, but the numbers say under. EDGE: Syracuse, Under

Trends: This column always backs Brohm as a dog. However, this is a unique situation with the spread moving from the Boilers as a favorite to the Orange as a favorite. Is Brohm a true road dog here? Maybe, maybe not. The fact of the matter is Purdue has been great ATS under Brohm when playing non-conference and when an away underdog. Brohm has also shown a small sample size of success against the ACC. Coach Babers, on the other hand, has seen the Orange struggle, also in a small sample size, with the Big Ten. Syracuse trends show Syracuse being good ATS in a home favorite spot, but it is not particularly strong correlation. The under seems to be a clear favorite of the trends, showing trend success both for the Boilers in this spot, as well as the Orange. EDGE: Purdue, Under

Situation: Both of these teams seem to be perceived similarly, although with very different starts to the season. Syracuse looked dominant against Louisville to open the season (which was reinforced with Louisville’s win over UCF). While nothing special against UConn, the Orange held down business en route to a 2-0 start to the season. There is a growing buzz behind their very talented running back, a massively improved QB, and a lockdown secondary. Yet, Syracuse is still wildly overlooked and seldom talked about. A win over Purdue to move to 3-0 and Syracuse is likely ranked with some national attention. Purdue is also overlooked nationally, but for different reasons. Purdue was essentially written off after the loss to Penn State. A blowout win against Indiana State is not going to move the needle for anyone, but it was certainly refreshing to see the Boilers come out and take care of business. There is not a real strong lean situationally for either side. Both are coming off easy wins against bad competition. This game is relatively underbet in terms of a total betting handle, and it may get lost in the shuffle of the noon games, although college football purists are extremely excited. Purdue and Syracuse both have offenses that have impressed this year, which is likely the explanation for the heavy lean to the over. EDGE: Push, Under

Total Analysis: Well, this does not feel good, but the play has to be Syracuse. The sharps seem to lean Syracuse, with a reverse money line to hammer home the point. The loss of Jalen Graham only raises concerns about the defense handling an offense that has been humming. Purdue, and largely Jeff Brohm, still need to prove to me they can commit to the run game, because I worry that the Syracuse secondary could cause some real problems for Purdue. Syracuse just does not have the meat on the d-line to stop the Boiler run game. Be patient, run the ball Jeff. Until I see Jeff run consistently, I am convinced Purdue stays one dimensional offensively and it becomes the downfall yet again. All three analytic categories point to the under. Both offenses have been impressive. There are way too many people on the over, and that has scared me away into my contrarian hole backing the under. The trends lend as a nice compliment to the numbers and paint a pretty clear picture of an under hitting.

Prediction: 31-27 Syracuse. If there has ever been a hope that the column goes 0-2, it is taking the opponent and the under. Disgusting. But, the analytics are the analytics and it would be foolish for me to go against given the current information. I pray Purdue can establish a run, get some pressure on the Syracuse QB, and get out of upstate New York 2-1 on the year.

Official Plays: Syracuse -1.5, Under 60.5.

Glossary:

The spread: Arguably the most used term in all of gambling, the spread refers to the handicapped line set by the sportsbook. For those new to gambling, think of the spread as a prediction by the sports book, given all the circumstances, of what the difference between the two teams are. The favorite will be listed with a negative spread, while the underdog will have a positive spread. The spread is put in place as a handicap to make the underdog and favorite more equal. For example, Purdue is currently +1.5 against Syracuse meaning a sportsbook would expect Purdue to lose by 1.5 points.

Odds and How to read them: The ability to read odds presents a gambler the insight into how a sportsbook or “Vegas” views a particular bet. The most common types of odds on sports bet will range from -105 to -115. -115 odds means that to win $10 dollars, a person would need to bet $11.50. Conversely, if the odds are positive, +115, then a bettor who bets $10 would win $11.50. To calculate ML odds for negative odds, take negative Moneyline odds / (Moneylines odds + 100) * 100 = Implied probability. So, if the odds are -115 then 115/(115+100)*100 = 53.5%.

Betting against the spread: Betting against the spread (“ATS”) means you are taking Purdue +1.5 or Syracuse -1.5. To cover the spread betting on Purdue, Purdue would need to lose by less than 2 or win. If one bets on Syracuse spread, the Orange would have to win by 2 or more.

Cover: This means a team won ATS. If Syracuse beats Purdue by 1, Syracuse has won the game, but Purdue has covered.

Money line: Money line (“ML”) is the odds given on a particular team just to win outright. Payouts can be significantly more or less than betting the spread. For example, betting on a big favorite to win on ML will not yield a very high return. Conversely, betting on a big underdog to win could sometimes pay out double or even triple your original bet. It all depends on the odds.

Over/Under: Over/unders are a type of bets that refer to how many total points will be scored in a game. For example, if the sportsbook sets an over/under of 49, bettors will bet under if they believe less than 49 points will be scored and vice-versa.

Sharp Bettor: A sharp bettor is a bettor who has shown the ability to turn a profit over the long run. These are generally gamblers that have shown a history of success. Sharp bettors are very useful in identifying value in a particular bet.

Juice: Juice may be the most confusing aspect for new gamblers or those unfamiliar with gambling. In simple terms, juice is the percentage sportsbooks take on a given wager. Sportsbook use juice to make their profit. To do this, odds for a bet with a sports book are normally -115 or -110 for both sides of the spread. This means that to win ten dollars, you would need to be $11.50. That means either way, the sportsbook is gaining a profit because each side is losing $1.50 per bet. This is the juice.

If there is a definition not listed that you think would be helpful, please let me know.

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