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Published Oct 17, 2021
Five Factors: Purdue's win over No. 2 Iowa
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Alan Karpick  •  BoilerUpload
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In a bit of a nod to the basketball analytics community, GoldandBlack.com continues a new post-game feature this season: Five Factors.

And, I am pinch-hitting for Brian Neubert this week.

As basketball analytics folks have done for many years with their Four Factors model, we've identified five areas of the game we consider particularly important to Purdue this season, but perhaps not as closely paid attention to.

Each week, no matter the outcome of the game prior, we'll break down those same five areas: Explosive plays, third- and fourth-and-short success, first-down productivity, missed tackles/broken tackles and Jack Plummer's running productivity (though we have thrown a twist into that for this week).

Here goes.

Today, Purdue's stunning 24-7 win over No. 2 Iowa.

EXPLOSIVE PLAYS (20+ yards)

Aidan O'Connell to David Bell was the talk of the college football world on Saturday night, as five of Purdue's six explosive plays were manufactured by the tandem. Only Broc Thompson's 28-yard reception in the second quarter qualified.

For the third straight week, Purdue didn't manufacture a run of over 20 yards, but the running game, thanks in part to the trio rotation of quarterbacks, was good enough to gross 105 yards, not bad against the Hawkeyes' rush defense.

SEASON CHART
GameExplosive PlaysRun GamePass Game

Oregon State

4

1 (24)

3 (42, 22, 50)

Connecticut

4

1 (26 — WR)

3 (30, 20, 39)

Notre Dame

4

1 (31)

3 (22, 32, 27)

Illinois

2

2 (43, 27)

Minnesota

5

5 (32, 21, 27, 34, 23)

Iowa

6

6 (60, 28, 47, 24, 20, 21

THIRD- AND FOURTH-AND-SHORT SUCCESS (three or fewer yards)

In a game in which the Purdue offense functioned at a much higher level than the 24-point total suggested, the Boilermakers were only in two third-and-short situations and none on fourth down. That may have been telling in its own right.

O'Connell was magnificent on third down, completing 9 of 10 passes for 119 yards. He also converted three first downs and scored his rushing TD on a third-and-goal from the six.

The lone failure came on an I-formation hand-off that lost a yard on third-and-one.

SEASON CHART
GameThird-and-ShortFourth-and-ShortPassing/Rushing

Oregon State

5-6

PASS: 2-2, 55, 2 TD

RUN: 4-2 (3-4 CONV)

Connecticut

5-6

PASS: 3-3, 25, 2 TD

RUN: 3-7 (2-3 CONV)

Notre Dame

3-6

0-1

PASS: 3-3, 9, PI (3-4 CONV)

RUN: 3-1 (0-3 CONV)

Illinois

3-4

PASS: 1-2, 10 (1-2 CONV)

RUN: 2-6 (2-2 CONV)

Minnesota

2-3

2-2

PASS: 2-2, 26 (2-2 CONV)

RUN: 3-9 (2-3 CONV)

Iowa

1-2

PASS: 2-2 (1 CONV)

RUN: No stats

FIRST-DOWN PRODUCTIVITY

Purdue was OK on first downs, and was good enough to not get behind the sticks much. On 32 attempts on first downs, Purdue had only two negative rushing plays and completed 7-of-10 passes.

SEASON CHART
GameAvg. First Down GainRushingPassing

Oregon State

6.25 yards

15-75

13-17, 125 yards

Connecticut

6.65 yards

16-61

15-18, 165 yards, TD, sack

Notre Dame

4.5 yards

6-19

17-25, 125 yards, TD, sack

Illinois

3.8 yards

13-34

8-13, 72, 2 sacks

Minnesota

6.9 yards

19-88

10-16, 152, 2 sacks

Iowa

4.5 yards

21-63

7-11, 72, 0 sacks

MISSED/BROKEN TACKLES

Purdue's defense was about as good as could be by holding the Hawkeyes to just seven points, and it had only six missed tackles. Purdue's YAC in the run game was the lowest of the year, a testament to Iowa's tackling ability. But, in the end, it was good enough.

SEASON CHART
* According to Pro Football Focus; running game only
GamePurdue Missed Tackles*Purdue Yards After Contact*

Oregon State

6

84 (3.39)

Connecticut

3

108 (avg: 2.86)

Notre Dame

14

58 (avg: 3.22)

Illinois

11

52 (avg. 2.48)

Minnesota

7

82 (avg. 2.73)

Iowa

6

66 (avg. 2.13)

AUSTIN BURTON/JACK PLUMMER'S RUSHING

Assuming Purdue stays with the three-quarterback system, this might become a relevant comparison but still hard to compare what Purdue wanted to get out of Jack Plummer in the run game early in the season. But, we will give it a shot, and Brian will likely find a better way to do it after the Wisconsin game.

JACK PLUMMER/AUSTIN BURTON RUSHING
*Burton **Burton/Plummer; no sack yardage
GameAttemptsTotal Yards

Oregon State

3

5

Connecticut

Notre Dame

2

14

Illinois

2

2

Minnesota *

3

14

Iowa **

8

33

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