PURDUE (7-5, 2-3 B1G) vs. MICHIGAN STATE (8-3, 2-3 B1G)
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ABOUT THIS GAME
Purdue heads to East Lansing after the Nebraska game's postponement for what will be the third of four consecutive Big Ten road games for the Boilermakers, which is unprecedented. The Boilermakers are winless on the road this season in four games, three of them in Big Ten play, all vs. top-15-caliber teams. Michigan State's endured a rough season post-Cassius Winston, but may have turned a corner lately with back-to-back wins, including a rout of 15th-ranked Rutgers.
ABOUT PURDUE
Schedule | Statistics | Roster
Again, Purdue's wrapped up in an unprecedented run of four consecutive road games, the first three of which will have been against ranked opponents. ... The Boilermakers are the lowest-scoring team in the Big Ten, but 34th nationally in offensive efficiency per KenPom.
BEST-GUESS STARTERS
C — 50 TREVION WILLIAMS (6-10, 265, Junior)
14.1 PPG • 9.7 RPG • 2.5 APG • 52.3% FG
Last two games for Williams, on the road against good teams with good big men: 17-of-26, 35 points, 20 rebounds. He's done damage against Michigan State before and should have favorable matchups on the interior often.
F — 0 MASON GILLIS (6-6, 230, Redshirt Freshman)
5.5 PPG • 3.4 RPG • 51.1% FG • 36% 3-PT (9-25)
Gillis adds a lot of value for Purdue. Lately, though, his jumper hasn't been falling — 1-for-9 from three the past three games — like it did earlier in the season.
G — 55 SASHA STEFANOVIC (6-5, 200, Junior)
11.5 PPG • 3.1 RPG • 3.0 APG • 50% 3-PT (31-62)
Stefanovic carried a bit of a rep last season for not shooting well on the road, even though he fared OK later in the season, but he's now 9-of-18 from three in Purdue's last three games away from Mackey Arena and doing more offensively off the dribble than he ever has before. He's already shot more free throws this season than he did all of last season and has been good for a drive-and-dish assist or two per game, it seems like.
G — 2 ERIC HUNTER JR. (6-4, 170, Junior)
12.3 PPG • 32.4% 3-PT (11-34) • 3.3 APG • 1.1 STL
Hunter's been in a rut the past few games and Purdue needs him to break out of it fast. He believes the fixes are easy ones.
G — 5 BRANDON NEWMAN (6-5, 195, Redshirt Freshman)
9.5 PPG • 3.5 RPG • 41.3% 3-PT (19-46)
Newman's coming off a nice game as a scorer at Illinois, but also finished with five turnovers. Not sure all five of them were necessarily his fault, but Purdue can't afford to turn the ball over too much if it hopes to win games like this.
ROTATION
C — 15 ZACH EDEY (7-4, 285, Freshman)
9.3 PPG • 4.1 RPG • 63.8% FG
Both of Purdue's 5s could have one-on-one advantages on the interior against Michigan State, which historically hasn't always doubled-teamed the post. It will be interesting to see how much Purdue can get the ball inside and how efficient Williams and Edey can be.
G — 11 ISAIAH THOMPSON (6-1, 160, Sophomore)
6.2 PPG • 43.3% 3-PT (13-30)
Thompson's made at least one three in five straight games now.
G — 25 ETHAN MORTON (6-6, 215, Freshman)
Morton is seeing minutes at the 4, too, in four-guard lineups but minutes still remain hard to come by in the backcourt and chances to play extended stretches don't come often.
F — 1 AARON WHEELER (6-9, 205, Junior)
4.1 PPG • 5.4 RPG
Wheeler was profoundly impactful at Illinois, not just because he made threes, but because he got loose balls. His search for consistency, though, has been an ongoing one. He's got to build on success at some point.
G — 23 JADEN IVEY (6-4, 200, Freshman)
6.5 PPG
Ivey's going through a rough patch, it seems, and could use some success, but on a positive note, he's not turned the ball over a single time since he returned to the floor for the Ohio State game.
C — 4 EMMANUEL DOWUONA (6-10, 245, Sophomore)
Dowuona has experienced recurring respiratory issues and was pulled from practice again last week.
ABOUT MICHIGAN STATE
Schedule | Statistics | Roster
Michigan State started 0-3 in the Big Ten, including one-sided losses at Northwestern and Minnesota, but has rebounded by winning its last two, most recently a 68-45 win over 15th-ranked Rutgers in which it excelled on defense. ... Defense is where the Spartans have been up and down this season, among other areas. The Spartans are allowing an average of 73 points per game — 10th among Big Ten teams — and opponents are shooting solid percentages and not turning the ball over much. The Spartans are 54th nationally per KenPom in defensive efficiency but 132nd in effective field goal percentage defense (48.6), 237th against the three (35.1 percent) and 307th in defensive turnover percentage (15.7) ... As is rarely the case, Michigan State lacks a strong interior presence. Lately, forward Joey Hauser, an impact player but not exactly a true center, has been playing a good deal of 5, giving Tom Izzo a floor-stretching element, but not the sort of physical presence Xavier Tillman, Nick Ward and all those like them did. ... Michigan State has shuffled its guard rotation quite a bit and lately has been settled on freshman A.J. Hoggard at the point. The post-Cassius Winston Era hasn't been a straight line. The Spartans are second-to-last among Big Ten teams in assist-to-turnover ratio. ... Michigan State's shooting 35.3 percent from three-point range this season, 10th among Big Ten teams.
BEST GUESS STARTERS
F — 0 AARON HENRY (6-6, 210, Junior)
14.0 PPG • 5.5 RPG • 3.8 AST • 1.6 STL
The veteran has been inconsistent at times in his career, but has played some of his best basketball during the Spartans' two-game winning streak. He's 18-of-29, 5-of-9 from three, and averaging 23-and-a-half points those past two outings.
F — 20 JOEY HAUSER (6-9, 220, Senior)
12.0 PPG • 8.5 RPG • 36.4% 3-PT
Hauser's stepped right into the lineup this season and played at an All-Big Ten level. He can really shoot from the outside, and when he lines up at center, that will be a real concern for Purdue.
C — 15 THOMAS KITHIER (6-8, 230, Junior)
3.6 PPG • 3.4 RPG • 65.4% FG
The closest thing Michigan State has to a true center, Kithier will matchup with Purdue's 5 men before the Spartans go small, if they do. They may not. As always, it's critical to keep Michigan State's bigs off the offensive glass.
G— 11 A.J. HOGGARD (6-3, 220, Freshman)
3.7 PPG • 1.9 AST
Michigan State's looked for answers at the point all season, and lately it's been the big-bodied freshman guard. Rocket Watts will see time with the ball in his hands too.
G — 1 JOSHUA LANGFORD (6-5, 200, Senior)
8.8 PPG • 2.2 AST • 36.8% 3-PT
After hardly playing for two years, the veteran gives Michigan State an experienced presence and a dangerous shooter.
ROTATION
F — 25 MALIK HALL (6-7, 225, Sophomore)
6.2 PPG • 5.2 RPG • 53.3% FG • 45.5% 3-PT
The backup forward is shooting really well from three this season.
F — 44 GABE BROWN (6-8, 210, Junior)
8.2 PPG • 54% FG • 46.2% 3-PT
Another really dangerous shooter who's gonna get his shot off over most any closeout.
G — 2 ROCKET WATTS (6-2, 185, Sophomore)
9.9 PPG • 3.6 AST
Watts was expected to be one of the breakout players of this Big Ten season, but it hasn't quite clicked yet.
G — 3 FOSTER LOYER (6-0, 175, Junior)
5.6 PPG • 2.5 AST • 41.2% 3-PT
C — 22 MADY SISSOKO (6-9, 235, Freshman)
1.0 PPG • 2.1 RPG
PREDICTION: MICHIGAN STATE 72, PURDUE 67
Michigan State may not be a decidedly better team than Purdue, and the Boilermakers have certainly shown at Rutgers and Illinois that they can compete in games like this. What they have not shown is that they can break through and win them quite yet. That day will come eventually. For now, you generally have to do so much right to beat Michigan State and Purdue hasn't had that seminal moment yet, so we'll give the Spartans the benefit of the doubt here.
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