GOLDANDBLACK.COM PREVIEW: #17 PURDUE at INDIANA
More: Purdue 2016-17 coverage
Thursday, Feb. 9, 2017 • 7 p.m. ET | Simon Skodjt Assembly Hall (Bloomington, Ind.) | TV: ESPN2 | Radio: Purdue Radio Network
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About this game: The first installment in this year's rivalry double-header comes in Bloomington, coming as No. 17 Purdue has won two straight and taken sole possession of second place in the Big Ten and the injury-plagued Hoosiers have lost three of their last four. ... This stands to be a big game for Indiana, whose NCAA Tournament standing has suddenly come into question, surprisingly, considering IU was ranked as high as No. 3 nationally earlier in the season. ... Indiana is without talented forward O.G. Anunoby, lost to a knee injury, and has been without leading scorer James Blackmon Jr., with a leg injury. Blackmon warmed up at Wisconsin, though, and Purdue expects him to play. ... These are the two highest-scoring teams in the Big Ten, with Purdue averaging 79.6 points in Big Ten play and IU 76.4. ... The Hoosiers are second to last in the Big Ten in scoring defense, allowing 77.2 points, but Purdue has already lost to No. 12 Nebraska and No. 14 Iowa on the road this season. ... In futility news, these are the Big Ten's two most turnover-concerned teams. Purdue's 13th in the league in turnover margin (-3.3) and Indiana is 14th (-3.5). Turnovers could matter in this one, big-time. ... Purdue leads the Big Ten in assist-to-turnover ratio despite its turnover problem, while IU is 13th. ... Purdue's P.J. Thompson, Caleb Swanigan and Dakota Mathias are Nos. 5-6-7 in the Big Ten in three-point shooting and the Boilermakers lead the conference. They're shooting 45 percent on the road from three-point range.
More ($): Purdue Roundball Roundup: Bigs big at the line
| Team | AP | Coaches | RPI | KenPom | KenPom - Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Purdue |
17 |
18 |
22 |
12 |
61% |
|
Indiana |
— |
— |
74 |
41 |
39% |
No. 17 PURDUE BOILERMAKERS (19-5, 8-3 BIG TEN)
Roster | Schedule | Statistics
Projected Starters
C - Caleb Swanigan (6-9, 250, So.)
After Purdue went "small" last year in Bloomington, with Swanigan at the 5 in the final 10 minutes, the Boilermakers erased a deep deficit and nearly had a chance to steal the game at the very end if not for a blown goal-tending call against A.J. Hammons. Now, Swanigan is Purdue's primary 5, surrounded by a group that's made Purdue one of the best three-point shooting teams in the country. Offense hasn't been Purdue's issue on the road, turnovers aside. Swanigan will have to keep his turnovers within reason. Isaac Haas, too. Purdue needs an aggressive, level-headed Haas here and it needs both bigs - bur everyone, really - to keep IU off the offensive glass. They'll be tested defensively by Thomas Bryant, who can score inside and out. It sounds like IU wants to put him in more positions to shoot from the perimeter, which Purdue will need an answer for if he's making jumpers.
F - Vincent Edwards (6-8, 225, Jr.)
The junior forward hasn't been making shots on the road lately, for no real apparent reason. His back injury didn't slow him down in a 17-point game at home against Northwestern, so it's unclear what causation might be for his struggles to score on the road. Might just be a coincidence. He can really help Purdue on the glass, though, especially the offensive glass. When he's at his best, he's very active there.
G - Carsen Edwards (6-0, 190, Fr.)
The road has yet to faze Purdue's combustible freshman guard, but this might be a different environment altogether. That said, there are no red flags around him suggesting any cause for concern. But shot selection and turnovers are probably 1-2 on Purdue's to-do list in Bloomington and both are among his foremost considerations each time out.
G- P.J. Thompson (5-10, 188, Jr.)
Purdue's foremost big-shot-maker on the road this season, Thompson has been one of the Big Ten's best three-point shooters on top of boasting a sparkling assist-to-turnover ratio. Josh Newkirk can be problematic with his quickness, but Purdue's done a good job guarding such point guards lately. Spike Albrecht will be tested defensively in the minutes he gets in Bloomington.
G - Dakota Mathias (6-4, 200, Jr.)
Purdue might want to get Mathias more shots. He's quietly shooting 74 percent the past three games, ranks among Big Ten leaders in three-point shooting and has been in double-digits five straight games on low volume. He's not a shot-hunter, though, so he's been thriving in low volume and letting shots find him. No issues there. In this one, his defense comes to the forefront again, especially if James Blackmon Jr. plays and is healthy enough to be his usual threat. Ryan Cline has been tearing it up as a shooter on the road and has been an under-rated defender for Purdue himself this season.
INDIANA HOOSIERS (15-9, 5-6 BIG TEN)
Roster | Schedule | Statistics
Projected Starters
Guard - 2 Josh Newkirk (6-1, 195, Jr.)
IU's point guard is turnover-prone, but he's been going off as a scorer lately, scoring 49 points the past two games, the first being a triple-OT game, so it's really more like two-and-a-half games. He's quick and quickness can be a problem for Purdue, but he's also made four threes in each of the past two games.
Guard - 4 Robert Johnson (6-3, 195, Jr.)
The veteran guard can really shoot, a 41.7-percent shooter for the season who ranks among Big Ten leaders in making an average of 2.5 threes per game. He's been an ironman for IU lately, having played nearly 90 minutes the last two games combined (including the triple-OT game against Penn State).
Guard - 0 Curtis Jones (6-4, 175, Fr.)
The freshman started the last game for Indiana, perhaps the last IU will play without Blackmon, but was 1-for-5 in 21 minutes and hasn't made more than one field goal in a game since Jan. 18. Still, the former blue-chip recruit is a talent.
Center -31 Thomas Bryant (6-10, 255, So.)
One of the best big men in the Big Ten averages about 13 points and seven rebounds and will be a matchup headache for Purdue's big men because he score inside, shoot from the perimeter and can really run the floor. Purdue will want to keep him from getting loose for transition dunks, and if he's making threes, then it'll have to find some answers there. It sounds like Indiana will want to give him a chance to do just that, to play him away from the basket more to exploit that matchup. Purdue's bigs aren't the best of post defenders and will want to avoid fouls, so he might be able to make some hay there, as well. Maybe Purdue doubles the post to try to make him make quick decisions.
Forward -13 Juwan Morgan (6-8, 230, So.)
Morgan figures to be that guy Purdue will have to worry about keeping off the offensive glass and keep from generating easy baskets off others' penetration and just random garbage-type points.
Key Player -1 James Blackmon Jr. (6-4, 200, Jr.)
Blackmon's missed the past three games with a leg injury. Our assumption - and Purdue's - is that he'll play, maybe start. If he plays, he's one of the Big Ten's better pure scorers and a real shot-maker. Pre-injury, he was a 49-percent shooter, 43 percent from three-point range.
Key Player - 20 De'Ron Davis (6-10, 240, Fr.)
If recent trends against Purdue hold, some random big man will have a big day against the Boilermakers. The talented rookie would be capable and he'll have the opportunity because IU may need his size, but to this point, he's not been a big-numbers sort of player. Purdue needs to keep Indiana off the offensive glass.
Key Player - 21 Freddie McSwain Jr. (6-6, 215, Jr.)
The junior college transfer doesn't play much, but has played more lately, he and walk-on Zach McRoberts both.
Key Player - 11 Devonte Green (6-3, 186, Fr.)
The freshman point guard started a few games with Blackmon sidelined. At this stage of his career, he's not been very efficient.
| Turnovers | Dribble containment | The Bryant matchup |
|---|---|---|
|
These are probably the two most turnover-vulnerable teams in the Big Ten and obviously so much of Purdue's emphasis has related to that phase of the game, but it's a constant concern. IU must be kept out of transition. Turnovers are its path. Indiana will probably need to score at a high rate against Purdue. It will want to avoid empty possessions, too, obvioiusly. |
The Boilermakers will certainly want to stay out of scramble mode in the open court, but especially the halfcourt. Dribble penetration leads to fouls and putbacks and Purdue doesn't have A.J. Hammons anymore to clean up its messes against the Hoosiers. Seems like he blocked two dozen shots against them the last two years. |
Thomas Bryant is going to have chances to make threes. It might be a key part of Indiana's game plan, to drag Swanigan and Haas away from the basket and open the lane. Purdue can probably weather a three or two from Bryant, but it can't let him go crazy, nor can it compromise its entire defensive structure to account for the possibility. |
PREDICTION: PURDUE 78, INDIANA 75
This has the makings of a shootout, especially if Blackmon plays and looks to be full-strength and rust-free. Purdue has been very good on offense this season and barely skipped a beat on the road, which bodes well given the Hoosiers' defensive concerns here. But Assembly Hall is a difficult place to play, IU tends to make threes there and this is a line-in-the-sand sort of situation for the Hoosiers, whose NCAA Tournament hopes will begin to circle the drain if they can't turn things around fast.
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