No. 5 Michigan State at Purdue
Date/Time/Place: Saturday, Nov. 6, 2021: 3:30 p.m. ET, Ross-Ade Stadium
Surface: Natural Grass
Capacity: 57,282 (Tickets)
Schedule/records: Michigan State (8-0 overall, 5-0 Big Ten); Purdue (5-3, 3-2)
Series notes: Michigan State has won the last eight in the series to pull to a 36-28-3 advantage. The Boilermakers last victory in the series was Nov. 4, 2006, in East Lansing when kicker Casey Welch came off the bench with 4:49 left in the game to hit an 18-yard game-winning field goal. It was Welch's only field goal of his Boilermaker career. The two teams haven't played since Oct. 27, 2018, when Michigan State subdued Purdue 23-13 the week after the Boilermakers upset No. 2 Ohio State. The Spartans haven't played in Ross-Ade Stadium since a 45-31 win over the Boilermakers on Oct. 11, 2014. The Spartans were ranked No. 8 in that game. The last time Purdue faced a top-5 Michigan State team in Ross-Ade Stadium, Chris Daniels caught a Big Ten record 21 passes for 301 yards from Drew Brees as the Boilermakers won 52-28 over the Nick Saban-coached and fifth-ranked Green and White in 1999.
TV: ABC (PBP Dave Pasch; Analyst Dusty Dvoracek; Field Analyst Tom Luginbill)
Radio: Purdue Sports Properties (PBP Tim Newton; Analyst Dusty Pete Quinn; Sidelines Kelly Kitchel) Listen on Tunein or the VarsityApp
Early line: Michigan State -3
Pregame: Gold and Black Radio
Purdue roster | Purdue Game Notes
Michigan State roster | Michigan State Game Notes
Michigan State running game versus Purdue against the run
Wake Forest transfer RB Kenneth Walker III has truly been a revelation for this Spartan offense in 2021. While he put up solid numbers during his time in Winston-Salem, nobody envisioned him becoming a Heisman candidate, and maybe the Heisman front-runner entering November. Last week's five touchdown performance against Michigan sent shockwaves throughout the college football world. Walker III averages 149 yards per game on the ground and has found the end zone 14 times through five games. He has only been held under 100 yards twice this season, so Purdue's front seven has its work cut out for it. Quarterback Payton Thorne is mobile, though he doesn't provide as much of a dual threat as what Purdue saw last week in Adrian Martinez.
Purdue's defense struggled early on against Nebraska's read option run game last week, but they settled down nicely in the second half. Purdue surrenders 139 yards per game on the ground, but the Spartans average over 200 per game through their dynamic rushing attack. Purdue should be healthy in the front seven despite DT Lawrence Johnson and LEO Kydran Jenkins getting nicked up in Lincoln. The blueprint doesn't yet exist for shutting down Walker, but Purdue must do what it can to limit the Heisman contender and force the Spartan offense to beat it through the air.
Michigan State passing game versus Purdue against the pass
Thorne won Michigan State's quarterback competition over Temple transfer Anthony Russo, and he's given Mel Tucker no reason to regret his decision. Through eight games, Thorne is completing 61% of his passes for an average of 237 yards a game. He has tossed 15 touchdown passes compared to just six interceptions. While the numbers aren't eye-popping, Thorne has been exactly what Michigan State needs to complement its Heisman-caliber running back. Thorne isn't afraid to take shots down the field, targeting the receiving duo of Jayden Reed and Jalen Nailor frequently. Nailor's status is a significant key to watch ahead of Saturday's matchup after he injured his hand during the win over Michigan last weekend. Should Nailor be out, Tre Mosley will become Thorne's number two target.
It was a good day for Purdue's secondary in Lincoln a week ago, as they held Adrian Martinez under 50% completion and the defense forced four interceptions in the victory. The pass defense continues to be strong for Purdue. It has feasted off vulnerable quarterbacks lately, and although Thorne hasn't been turnover prone, he did toss a pair of interceptions last week when he was pressured by Michigan's strong defensive front. Purdue will look to unleash George Karlaftis early and often to force Thorne into poor decisions. It's been two consecutive games now where Purdue has scored a defensive touchdown following Jalen Graham's pick-six last week. If it could make it three-in-a-row, it could be the difference on Saturday.
Purdue running game versus Michigan State against the run
Purdue's rushing attack broke through last week for 116 yards, their second-highest total of the season, against Nebraska. King Doerue turned in a strong performance, and Zander Horvath returned to action with 11 carries. While Purdue used less of Jack Plummer and Austin Burton, they did use Jackson Anthrop at running back as a wrinkle to muster up a rushing attack. All in all, it worked well and helped Purdue's offense put up its third-highest point total of the season.
Michigan State's run defense turned in an excellent performance last week, holding Michigan well below its season average on the ground. The Spartans surrender 124 yards per game rushing, so Purdue will have to get creative to move the ball against them. Horvath's return may see him jump into the lead back role, where he was prior to his leg injury. Him and Doerue will need to make the most of any hole they get on Saturday.
Purdue passing game versus Michigan State against the pass
After a disappointing game against Wisconsin, Aidan O'Connell bounced back with a strong performance against Nebraska. The senior threw for 233 yards and two touchdowns, but most importantly, didn't turn the ball over. The formula for success has been written for O'Connell, as good things happen when he plays a clean game. David Bell, Milton Wright and Jackson Anthrop all had strong days against Nebraska and will look to continue from there on Saturday. Expect Purdue to air it out regularly, per usual. Two passing touchdowns in the red zone were a welcomed sight for Jeff Brohm in last week's win. Results like that will be needed on Saturday.
The Spartan pass defense leaves quite a bit to be desired, as opponents are airing it out for 300 yards per game against them. Last week, Michigan was able to eclipse the 400 yard mark. Mel Tucker is a defensive coach who doesn't like to get beat over the top. He'll put safety Xavier Henderson deep to play "center field," but he'll give opponents quite a bit underneath and beg them to take shots downfield. If Purdue can be patient, as it was last week at Nebraska, it should have success in the short-to-intermediate passing game, but the red zone will decide this one.
Special teams
Two more missed field goals from kicker Mitchell Fineran is troubling. Brohm indicated that there is going to be competition between Fineran and backup Ben Freehill during practice. Will we see a change? Elsewhere on special teams, kickoff specialist Chris van Eekeren continues to rehab from a sprained ankle. Purdue hasn't produced many touchbacks since he was injured and would love to have him back sooner rather than later.
While Spartan kicker Matt Coghlin became the all-time leading kicker in Michigan State history earlier this season, it hasn't all been smooth, as he enters just 10-of-15 on field-goal attempts this season with misses coming at many different distances. Punter Bryce Baringer averages over 50 yards per attempt and will be a weapon for the Spartans. The return game is a factor for Michigan State. Jayden Reed has taken two punts back for touchdowns already this season and has the potential to break a game open in this facet.
Intangibles
Purdue will take the field on Saturday with a chance to become bowl eligible before the Old Oaken Bucket game for the first time since 2007. The Boilers have alternated wins and losses since they won two consecutive games to open the season, and they are looking to avoid a third-straight loss at Ross-Ade Stadium. There seems to be some confidence from this team, and why not? They get the chance to play Spoilermakers on Saturday, a role which Jeff Brohm has had some success in.
Michigan State enters in a prime "let down" spot following a massive comeback win at home against their biggest rival. Now, they have lots of attention on them with the Heisman candidacy of Kenneth Walker III and their top four ranking in the College Football Playoff committee's debut rankings this week. Can they move on from the big win and focus for a road trip on what looks to be a perfect fall afternoon for football on Saturday?
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