Matchup Preview: Purdue-No. 21 Minnesota

Series notes: Purdue trails the all-time series 33-41-3 against the Golden Gophers. Under Jeff Brohm, the Boilermakers sit at just 1-4 against Minnesota, with the lone win coming In 2017, when a Ja'Whaun Bentley pick-six following a weather delay sealed the victory. Purdue led at the half a season ago but lost the lead in a rain-soaked Ross-Ade Stadium, losing 20-13. Both Brohm and Minnesota head coach PJ Fleck took their respective jobs following the 2016 season, adding another level of intrigue to the series between divisional opponents. Purdue hasn't beaten a ranked Minnesota team in Minneapolis since 1960.

TV: ESPN 2 (PxP Anish Shroff, Analyst Brock Osweiler, Sidelines Taylor McGregor)

Radio: Purdue Sports Properties (PxP Tim Newton; Analyst Pete Quinn; Sidelines Mark Herrmann) Listen on Tunein or the VarsityApp

Line: Minnesota -12.5

Pregame: Gold and Black Radio

Purdue roster | Purdue Game Notes

Minnesota roster

Minneapolis weather

Minnesota running game versus Purdue against the run

Though their season rushing stats could be slightly inflated due to running away with all four games, Minnesota likes to run the ball as much as possible. With Mohamed Ibrahim, it's hard to blame them. The sixth-year senior Ibrahim missed nearly the entire 2021 season with an injury sustained in the season opener but is off to a monster start to the 2022 year. Despite being removed early in blowout wins, Ibrahim averages 6.4 yards per carry to the tune of 141 yards per game on the ground. Trey Potts joins Ibrahim in the backfield and brings a strong punch himself, averaging 72 yards per game on the ground. The two main backs for the Gophers combine for over 200 yards per game and have found the end zone 11 times in just four games.

Purdue's rush defense did an excellent job on solid running backs in the past two weeks, containing Syracuse's Sean Tucker and FAU's Larry McCammon III nicely. The downside? The containment of the running backs allowed quarterback runs to hurt the Boilermaker defense, partially a product of Purdue's man-heavy defensive schematic approach. While Minnesota quarterback Tanner Morgan doesn't bring elite speed to the table, the sixth-year senior's experience shows in the run game. He makes quality reads and adds a threat for Purdue's defense to worry about.

The Gophers average 294 rushing yards per game to this point. Purdue will likely need to hold them below the 200-yard mark to feel good about their chances on Saturday.

Minnesota passing game versus Purdue against the pass

Saturday will mark Tanner Morgan's fifth start against Purdue, entering 4-0 against the Boilermakers during his successful career as a Golden Gopher. While his career trajectory hasn't necessarily been linear, he's looked to return to his spectacular 2019 form this season as that season's offensive coordinator Kirk Ciarrocca returned to Minneapolis. So far, so good for Morgan, who's completed 77 percent of his passes to this point for seven touchdowns to just one interception. Minnesota doesn't want to put too much on Morgan's shoulders, as he averages just 20 pass attempts per game, but when you run the ball as well as the Gophers have, there's no need to put the ball in the air too much.

Minnesota received unfortunate news last week when top receiver Chris Autman-Bell was ruled out for the remainder of the season due to injury. Now, they'll look at Michael Brown-Stephens and Brevyn Spann-Ford as their top targets through the air to complement their run game.

Purdue allowed more explosive plays than expected to Florida Atlantic, as the Owls found plenty of holes in Purdue's back end. The Boilermakers' man coverage-heavy approach has brought mixed results to this point. Chris Jefferson's two interceptions stick out as a bright spot, but the defensive holding/pass interference penalties continue to add up. Against a veteran quarterback like Morgan, Purdue's secondary will need to show discipline from the get-go as the Gophers will aim to confuse the Boilermaker defensive backs early and often with their RPO concepts.

Purdue running game versus Minnesota against the run

After averaging 5.2 yards per carry against FAU, it's clear that Purdue can run the ball against the lesser opponents on the schedule. However, the losses to Penn State and Syracuse showed that Purdue still needs to improve on the ground. For the last two weeks, Dylan Downing and Devin Mockobee have received the bulk of the carries in the absence of King Doerue. In Brohm's Monday press conference, he indicated that he wouldn't know until later in the week if Doerue will return to action on Saturday or not.

Should Austin Burton start at quarterback for Purdue, it makes the rushing attack more formidable. Burton's athleticism showed on speed option and designed quarterback run plays that add another way for Purdue to run the ball, an area that's plagued the program for the better part of four seasons now.

Minnesota enters, holding opponents to 61 yards per game on the ground after holding Michigan State to a mere 38 yards last week. Again, this stat is likely helped because Minnesota's domination of its first four opponents caused the opposing offense to pass the ball more. Despite that, you couldn't ask for anything more than what the Gopher front seven has shown to this point. Minnesota's defense enters with 15 tackles for loss, and they'll be looking for more on Saturday. This feels like a situation where Purdue will look to the short, quick passing game to act as a crutch for the traditional run game.

Purdue passing game versus Minnesota against the pass

Here lies the key question ahead of this game: will Aidan O'Connell play? After the star QB missed the Florida Atlantic game with an injury, Jeff Brohm remained non-committal when asked about O'Connell's status for Saturday, stating that he wouldn't know until later in the week. Should O'Connell play on Saturday, he immediately gives Purdue the edge in this category. He threw for 1000 yards in the Boilermakers' first three games, and his connection with Charlie Jones immediately became one of the nation's best. No, a clear number two wide receiver hasn't emerged, but Jones and Payne Durham form a nice pass-catching combo for this team.

If O'Connell cannot play on Saturday, Purdue will turn to Austin Burton for the second-consecutive week. Burton completed 21-of-29 attempts for 166 yards last week in the win against FAU, but he lacks the downfield passing ability that separates O'Connell from many quarterbacks. Brohm indicated that Michael Alaimo might see a series or two on Saturday if O'Connell doesn't play. Alaimo saw one series versus the Owls, but the offense went three-and-out. Purdue’s offense’s big-play ability and explosiveness become significantly hampered without O'Connell under center.

The Gophers haven’t faced a group of opposing solid quarterbacks to this point. New Mexico State and Colorado possess some of the FBS' most unstable quarterback rooms, while Michigan State's Payton Thorne has yet to show that he took the next step between 2021 and 2022. The stats jump off the page: Minnesota allows just 126 passing yards per game. Those numbers are due for some serious regression. If O'Connell plays, that could begin on Saturday.

Special teams

Mitchell Fineran's 47-yard field goal attempt to start the fourth quarter against FAU came up well short, marking the second-consecutive miss for the veteran kicker. He's not known for a big leg, having made just two kicks from 40+ in a Purdue uniform, but misses can quickly cause confidence issues. It’s something Purdue can't afford from Fineran.

Purdue did see a bit of a spark in the return game in the close win last week. Deion Burks brought a kickoff back 37 yards, while Charlie Jones took a punt 40 yards. Any big plays in the return game will be well-received by the Boilermakers, who are nine years removed from the last return touchdown.

Golden Gopher kicker Matthew Trickett enters five-for-five on field goal attempts this season with a long of 46, while punter Mark Crawford should be well-rested. Only three Minnesota drives have ended in a punt through four games. Twenty-nine of Minnesota's 33 kickoffs resulted in touchbacks, so Purdue may not see many chances to return one.

Intangibles

September didn't go the way Purdue fans dreamed of all summer long. Two close losses to Penn State and Syracuse left the fans wondering "what if," while last week's 28-26 win over Florida Atlantic didn't exactly build confidence. Now, the Boilermakers head to Huntington Bank Stadium, where Purdue has yet to win (0-6 all-time), and Jeff Brohm will look to improve to 2-4 against PJ Fleck. With so many injury questions surrounding the program, Purdue needs to dig deep and overcome some adversity.

On the other sideline, it's hard to imagine a better start for Minnesota. They rolled over a weak non-conference schedule before steamrolling Michigan State in East Lansing. Confidence couldn't be much higher for Fleck's team, who suddenly looks like the team to beat in the Big Ten West. The point spread moved significantly towards the Gophers between Sunday and now, but as college football reminds us, things can change anytime.

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