Purdue has won 8 straight and Minnesota hasn't beat Purdue in 7 years at Mackey Arena.
#2 Purdue 22-2 (11-2) now has a two game lead in the Big Ten. It's exactly where Purdue was predicted to be when the season started as its separated itself with UConn as the two best teams in the country.
Not sure anyone expected Minnesota to be here, 6-6 in the Big Ten, and 15-8 overall and legitimately hanging around the bubble picture. This is the same Golden Gophers program that went 2-17 in the Big Ten last season, including a 12 game losing streak, and then lost both of its best players to the transfer portal.
The off season outlook was that third year coach Ben Johnson might have lost his program before he ever got it built up, but a down Big Ten, and a surprise roster turn has the Golden Gophers in the middle of the pack in the Big Ten with one of the nation's best play makers, Elijah Hawkins, and one of the best all-around bigs in Dawson Garcia.
Now Minnesota has its toughest test of the season, fresh off a disappointing trip to Iowa where it squandered a 20 point lead after Garcia spent the second half on the bench with a groin injury.
It will be Purdue and Minnesota's only match-up of the regular season. Purdue offers itself up to Minnesota as the best win in the Big Ten. An upset in Mackey Arena could punch Minnesota's ticket into the conversation for the NCAA Tournament.
For Purdue, with a 2 game lead and just 7 games on the schedule, each win gets Painter and his Boilers one step closer to claiming its second straight Big Ten championship.
Bye Week Boilers
Purdue will go into this home game against Minnesota with plenty of rest. Purdue's played just one game, last Tuesday, against in-state rival IU in the last ten days. It's an unusual amount of rest for a team this late in the season. Which should work to Purdue's advantage with its two stars, Braden Smith and Zach Edey, carrying as much of a team's burden on offense as any tandem in the country.
But the game also sits precariously after a string of games with added importance - revenge against Northwestern, the Big Ten lead with Wisconsin, and the aforementioned rivalry with IU.
Will rest or rust show through when Purdue is back out on the court against Minnesota?
This might be the very epitome of a trap game for Purdue as it looks towards the end of its season. The Boilers start a stretch where Purdue gets to play the bottom portion of the Big Ten before a monster three-game slate to finish the regular season against Michigan State, Illinois, and Wisconsin.
Purdue's on an 8-game winning streak with its closest margin of victory being just 6 against Wisconsin, but Northwestern took them to overtime in Mackey Arena on January 31st. It has done everything to separate itself from the rest of the conference which appears to be eating itself underneath them.
Can Minnesota shock the Boilers in what would be a program defining upset?
Elijah Hawkins
If Braden Smith is under talked about and appreciated, Elijah Hawkins is criminally buried in the landscape of college basketball.
Hawkins is Minnesota's Braden Smith. He leads the nation in assists, and has the fifth highest assist rate in the country. He's finishing possessions with an assist more than 40% of his possessions. It's the best mark in the Big Ten.
Hawkins is the exact kind of guard that threatens the principles of Purdue's defense which mostly wants to keep the ball out of the paint whether in the post or from penetration.
"Their guard play has really helped them on both ends of the court," Painter said about Minnesota's guards and how this team has improved. "You know, Hawkins leads the nation in assists. He gives them ultimate quickness that can breakdown the defense."
Purdue's no stranger to a point guard that gets its offense moving. Braden Smith doesn't trail Hawkins by much in the assist department. His assist rate for the season is 37.3% and that's gone up in Big Ten play. He's just behind Hawkins for assist rate in Big Ten play.
The combination of guard play for Minnesota presents Purdue's with issues. Purdue likes to hide Smith if it can, but it also likes to hide Loyer on size while sticking Lance Jones on the team's best perimeter scorer.
Mike Mitchell and Elijah Hawkins are Minnesota's quicker guards, capable of scoring and getting into the defense. But the elite threats are Hawkins play making and Cam Christie's shot making.
"Cam Christie's a NBA prospect. A guy that can make shots. Can shoot off the dribble," Painter said on Wednesday when talking about Minnesota's perimeter threats.
Teams have not been that effective taking advantage of Purdue's perimeter defense. Lance Jones is one of the best defenders in the country, but Smith and Loyer both have limitations on the defensive end. Loyer lacks elite speed, but does well enough defending size on the perimeter. Smith is, as Edey said last week, small.
Christie will be a tough cover for Loyer. The freshman is already one of the better shot makers in the conference with great size and a good balance to his game.
Smith has stepped up his intensity the last few games, especially getting into dribbles as a help defender and going after drives in help action more. His two forced turnovers against Wisconsin helped seal the game for Purdue on the road. He had five steals against IU.
But Purdue prefers to not tax Smith more than he has to be with him doing so much on offense. He'll be taxed guarding Hawkins if that's the assignment. Hawkins quickness and ability to get into the paint is exactly what Purdue tries to avoid on defense.
But Smith presents the same concerns for Hawkins. Chasing around Smith, through Zach Edey screens, is no way to enjoy forty minutes on the hardwood.
But it should be a treat of a matchup with two of the Big Ten's best point guards.
Purdue could, and most likely, will stick Jones on Hawkins and make Hawkins day as hard as possible. That will mean Purdue has to really take care of the ball and get good shots on the offensive end of the floor to insist upon the switch and get its defense in position.
Dawson Garcia injury
But as Minnesota's collapse against Iowa showed, it's not the same team without Dawson Garcia.
Garcia went down with what appeared to be a groin injury that kept him out of the second half against Iowa where the Golden Gopher's twenty point lead fell and ultimately landed as a road loss to the Hawkeyes. Garcia does a little of everything for Minnesota and will be paramount to contending with Zach Edey inside for Minnesota. Without him, the Gophers will struggle even more to contend with the nation's best player.
The offense will also struggle. Garcia's ability to stretch the floor helps create room for Hawkins. Expect Edey to draw the Pharrel Payne assignment regardless with Garcia's ability to knock down threes, but without Garcia, Minnesota will lose some ability to keep space for its collection of guards.
Garcia's injury appears to be day to day and we'll expect news tomorrow on if he'll be ready to play or not.