Nationally, some players expressing safety concerns for the 2020 season

Amid all of the uncertainty that surrounds the college football season, a tipping point appears to be on the horizon as the coronavirus pandemic threatens the opening kickoff.

Is the health-risk associated with playing worth it? Could we see more than a few players opt out and choose not to play?

“Maybe they choose to take a step back and wait for the NFL,” said a Big 12 assistant. “If you are gonna be a first-round pick, there’s a lot of merit to coming out early. But I think you’ll see guys that maybe decide not to play that probably should stick it out and play football. Once that first domino goes, you’re gonna see more continue to fall. That is the day and age we live in."

One domino fell over the weekend when ESPN reported that a group of Pac-12 players is threatening to opt out of preseason training and games unless the league meets their demands around safety during the pandemic, compensation and other issues. The players have leverage and some are choosing to use it. Yet, as of Sunday, those concerns have not been presented directly to schools.

The back drop of all of this is simple: Without football, athletic departments are in peril. The revenue generated by football--along with men's basketball, to a lesser degree--is what supports the entirety of every other program on campuses.

The numbers are staggering for Big Ten athletic departments. If the season is called off, schools will lose an estimated $58.9 million, according to data compiled NJ.com. Wisconsin AD Barry Alvarez penned a letter to fans a few weeks ago saying his athletic department could lose more than $100 million if there’s no football in 2020. The losses at Purdue figure to be on par. AD Mike Bobinski already has trimmed $10 million off his department's $103 million annual budget.

The bulk of that payout to Big Ten schools comes in the form of an expected $54.6 million check from the conference fueled by TV money. The Big Ten's television contract is the richest of any league. If no games, are played, there are no TV broadcasts. And that means no Big Ten checks.

Without football--and all the game-day revenue and TV loot--the short-term forecast is challenged, if not bleak, for many athletic departments. Sports could be cut--which already has happened at some schools. The entire structure of college sports could be changed moving forward.

Purdue is scheduled to open its in-person classes on Aug. 24 with millions of dollars spent on making it the safest environment possible for all students. But there is uncertainly. The University of Minnesota recently said 70 percent of its classes will be held on-line and Purdue will have extensive online options, as well. All of this is the environment football will be played this fall.

"It's a very interesting time," said a Group of Five head coach.

The health risks surrounding the coronavirus are well-documented. Yes, almost all young adults escape unscathed after catching and then recovering from the virus. But there are still instances where young people end up on ventilators with the long-term effects of this disease for survivors not fully known.

In the Big Ten alone, there are roughly 1,400 football players. And there are about the same number in the SEC and ACC, while the Pac-12 has about 1,200 and the Big 12 1,000. Add it up, and that’s around 6,400 players in the five Power Five leagues. Thousands more are in the Group of Five. Odds are, a few players will get sick and some could get very sick.

"I would still play," said former Purdue running back Markell Jones, who last played in 2018 and led the Boilermakers in rushing his first three seasons. "I wouldn't be afraid. I just think the worry is more on older people, coaches."

Meanwhile, some Big 12 schools already have begun training camps. The Big Ten is slated to begin camps on August 7, but that could be delayed as the conference continues to evaluate its health and safety protocols outlined in a letter to member schools sent late last week.

It remains uncertain if elite players will bypass the 2020 season. Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence or Ohio State signal-caller Justin Fields are two elite quarterbacks expected to be high draft picks. Other Big Ten players projected in many mock drafts to go early in the 2021 NFL draft are Penn State linebacker Micah Parsons, Purdue wide receiver Rondale Moore, Ohio State cornerback Shaun Wade, OSU offensive lineman Wyatt Davis, Michigan offensive tackled Jalen Mayfield, Minnesota receiver Rashod Bateman, Michigan defensive end Aidan Hutchinson and Penn State tight end Pat Freiermuth, among others. Will any of them--or others--opt out?

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For now, the hay already is in the barn for elite players. For them, there is little to prove. How they perform playing college football in 2020 likely won’t have much—if any—impact on their 2021 draft status. Still, the pull to play will be great for many.

“The only thing I would say is some of these kids actually love their teammates and love college football,” said an NFL scout. “I don’t know if that’s Trevor or not. I don’t know him well enough. But I guarantee there will be some dudes who are gonna play no matter what.

“But again, I'm not gonna fault these kids one way or another if they decide to jump ship. We got players on our team, they're gonna opt out, and I think you're gonna see a huge number of NFL guys opt out real soon, too. Our GM thinks it’s coming.”

The NFL has begun to see some players opt out. The New England Patriots already have seen seven players make that choice. It seems more names are added to the NFL opt-out list each day as training camps open.

“First you see pros do it, and it trickles down to college,” said a Big 12 assistant. “I think there will be some upper-level guys that take a step back, especially if it’s not a clean season. There will be a lot of question marks moving forward. And some of these guys have already proven a lot in their career.”

One high-profile college player already has opted out: Virginia Tech cornerback Caleb Farley, who is a projected first-round pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. Farley has decided to opt out of the season due to health concerns surrounding the pandemic. Farley also said the death of his mother in 2018 due to illness is a reason he feels uncomfortable playing. Could he make others in his family sick if he brings the virus home?

In the Big Ten, Illinois has seen running back Ra’Von Bonner opt out. He said his asthma coupled with the risk of spreading the virus to family along with the possibility of having to play a shortened or modified season were all reasons he is punting on the season.

A fear among some college football watchers: Players opting out who from a skill and development standpoint would be better off playing in 2020—no matter what the season looks like. The good thing is, players who do opt out typically will be allowed to return to their schools on scholarship,

“College guys, I don’t know if they (many) will opt out or not,” said a Big Ten assistant. “The NFL has guys opting out because those guys are financially set. Rookies won’t opt out. College, I don’t know. I don’t know how many will. I don’t think many will. I don’t think college kids are scared of this. They aren’t. But if you have health risk factors, it would make sense to opt out.”

For some in this difficult process, it will be an individual decision and people have to do what’s best for their family and go from there.

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