In many ways, the fear of what McNeese could be, particularly on defense, is the reality of Houston.
Houston has the country's best defense, traps and forces turnovers, and backs it up with the #1 three-point shooting team on the offensive end. That sounds like the recipe of garnering a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament Houston, after running through the Big 12, has certainly earned its place in the Midwest bracket.
One could argue, it's been put in an unfair situation, one it doesn't deserve by having to go up against a #4 seed Purdue playing what would be categorized as a semi-home game in the regular season with the games taking place at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, Indiana.
Purdue had a rough end to its season, losing 6 of 9, but seem to be playing its best basketball of the season in the NCAA Tournament. Purdue handled a game High Point team in the first round and thoroughly dominated a pluck #12 seed, McNeese, in the round of 32.
Now the two teams are a collision course in the Sweet 16. Houston and Purdue are two of the most consistently successful teams in the country in the NCAA Tournament. Houston has made 8 straight Sweet 16's and Purdue has been to 6 of its last 8 including a trip to last year's title game.
Let's take a look at some early advanced metrics to paint a picture of the Midwest Sweet Sixteen matchup.
Common opponents
I don't know if there's really much notable to take away from teams playing common opponents. The transitive property doesn't really travel to college basketball. That said, it is notable the two teams Houston and Purdue both plays just for the quality of those opponents with Purdue and Houston both playing #1 seed Auburn and #2 seed Alabama.
For Houston, those two games count for half of its losses for the season. Houston's 32-4 record coming into the game against Purdue is one of the best records in the country. Houston, as has been the case under Kelvin Sampson, just does not lose basketball games. But Houston did fall to both Auburn in a semi-home environment and to Alabama on a neutral floor during the non-conference. It was competitive in both games, losing in overtime to Alabama 85-80, and to Auburn 74-69.
Purdue played host to Alabama early in the season and defeated the Crimson Tide in Mackey Arena, 87-78. Purdue traveled down to Birmingham to take on Auburn later in the non-conference, and was never competitive, losing 87-69.
Houston had a pretty disappointing non-conference schedule. It added a loss to San Diego State and didn't have a top 75 win.
But things changed when Houston entered the Big 12 where it won the conference running away, going 19-1, picking up victories against BYU, Arizona, Iowa State, and Texas Tech.
Defensive dominance
Let's take a look at some of Houston's defensive metrics according to Kenpom, and for those weak of heart and rooting for Purdue, you might want. to look away. Houston is the best defensive team in the country.
Teams have an effective field goal percentage of 45% against Houston, the fourth best mark in the country. Teams turn over the ball 21.8% of their possessions, the 18th best mark in the country. Teams are shooting 30.6% from three against Houston, the 25th best mark in the country. Teams are shooting a flimsy 44.3% from inside the arc, the 5th best mark in the country. Despite not having elite size, Houston has the fifth best block rate in the country.
Teams don't get many three-pointers off against Houston and teams struggle to create looks despite Houston's aggressiveness in scheme.
Houston is coming off a second round win against Gonzaga, 81-76. This is notable because that's just the second time this season a team has scored 70 points and not beaten Houston. In all four of Houston's losses, its defensive gave up at least 73 points. In every win except Gonzaga and an over time game against Kansas, Houston has held its opponents to under 70 points.
The good news for Purdue, if the offense works and scores, it can win. The problem is, there's not many teams that have broken through Houston's defense. We'll have more on how Purdue can break through Houston's offense during the week.
Offensive mirage?
Houston is no offensive slouch. In fact, it fits perfectly into the vital Kenpom metric limits that every nation title winning teams stays within. It clears them easily, really. Houston has the 10th best offense in the country according to Kenpom.
It starts with shooting.
Houston has shot 39.8% from three even though it's not one of the most prolific long shooting teams in the country. The good counter for Purdue is that Houston is not generally a team that plays well in the paint or inside the arc. Led by LJ Cryer, Houston's guards are isolation heavy, willing to settle for jumpers, and not the most creative dribbles and passers.
Houston is just the 94th best team when it comes to effective field goal percentage. It does protect the ball, turning the ball over on a measly 14.4% of its possessions, the 23rd best mark in the country. It also goes after the boards, rebounding 36.6% of its own misses. That's the 11th best mark in the country. That's been one of Purdue's most dramatic improvements in the NCAA Tourney, winning the battle on the board in both of its first two games.
Houston, again, is an isolation team which is a good sign for Purdue on the defensive front. Purdue's been toppled by some of the best executing offenses in the country where extra passing and clever sets have taken advantage of perimeter and post weaknesses. Purdue handled isolation heavy teams in both of its NCAA Tournament games, granted the talent and skill level increases tenfold with Houston.
But there are encouraging metrics, including Houston have the 327th best assist to field goal made rate in the country.
We'll take a look at some of Houston's stand out players in our next look at Houston on Boiler Upload as we prepare for the late night showdown in the Sweet Sixteen this Friday night.