Opponent View: Illinois

GoldandBlack.com talks to OrangeandBlueNews.com publisher Doug Bucshon to get his perspective on the Illinois program heading into Saturday's game.

Bucshon gives us his thoughts on the 3-2 start to the Illini's 2018 season, its third under coach Lovie Smith, what the hire of new offensive coordinator Rod Smith has done for this Illini offense and what he believes has to happen for Illinois to pull off this Homecoming game upset.

GoldandBlack.com: Let's start with the Lovie Smith's overall rebuild in year three of his tenure. After having played so many freshmen in 2017, are they more dynamic on offense?

Bucshon: "I think they turned a corner with they hired Rod Smith as offensive coordinator. He's a spread offense guy and cut his teeth with Rich Rodriguez (at Arizona) and it's just a completely different scheme to what Illinois has been doing. They're really getting the running game going as a top-15 team nationally in rushing offense with (backs) Mike Epstein and Reggie Corbin. The defense is still struggling and you don't know if they've turned a corner there because (last week's opponent) Rutgers isn't playing very well. We're going to learn a lot more about Illinois in this Homecoming matchup against a dynamic Purdue team."

GoldandBlack.com: With the emergence of Corbin and addition of (quarterback) AJ Bush, it seems like Epstein has help in the run game. What has those two players brought to this offense?

Bucshon: "Bush is a really good runner and he missed a couple games due to a hamstring injury. He adds a dimension to this offense because of his speed. Corbin is a really good story. He didn't get the ball much last year when they were using a power run game most of the time. He's really emerged, but we saw in the spring that he was a guy that could make people miss and get up the field. The long runs have stood out so far for the Illini as they're top five in the country in runs of 30 yards or more. They're getting explosive plays out of all three Epstein, Corbin and Bush."

GoldandBlack.com: Shifting to defense, anybody who is a fan of the Chicago Bears remembers Lovie's defenses and how they seemed to always cause turnovers. Has that been a major emphasis by Smith and defensive coordinator Hardy Nickerson this season?

Bucshon: "That's their philosophy and it's a trend that you saw with Lovie when he was with the Bears andTampa Bay. The Illini defense can be frustrating (to watch) at times because they sit back. They rush four and you don't see a lot of blitzes because they sit back in that Cover 2, Tampa 2 defense. They're first in the Big Ten in interceptions. Jartavius Martin and Del'Shawn Phillips both lead the Big Ten in interceptions. Yet, they've played some quarterbacks that just aren't that great at throwing the ball, but Nickerson preaches every day that they need to take the ball away. However, a major issue for the Illini is they have to find ways to stop people and force them to punt too. Good teams aren't going to continually hand you the football. This game against a David Blough, Rondale Moore and a Jeff Brohm offense will be interesting challenge for them."

GoldandBlack.com: Purdue fans are very familiar with Smith after seeing his Arizona offense in the Foster Farms Bowl last season. How much of an impact has he made in just his first season?

Bucshon: "It's been a remarkable turnaround, but you don't know if this kind of success will continue because there are good defenses remaining on the schedule. Lovie is a professional football coach and I think a lot of people were skeptical that he was going to bring an outdated pro-style offense to the Illini and they had a power running game that wasn't going anywhere. So Lovie went out and hired a college coach who has coached a spread offense at multiple places and I don't think you can overstate the importance of hiring Rod Smith to run an exciting offense with explosive plays. Now, they're going to have to pay him to keep him here and keep this momentum going for future years."

GoldandBlack.com: It seems there is a gap of misunderstanding about Smith's job security between national and local media and how athletics director Josh Whitman perceives the job security of his head coach. Can you explain what Smith's situation is?

Bucshon: "I think there is a gap in understanding what Lovie Smith's status is at Illinois. The fans are in a wait-and-see mode as to whether Lovie Smith will be able to build this into a program that can qualify for a bowl every year and win 7-9 games per season providing what you should expect out of a program like Illinois.

"From a job status perspective, there is a thought where you look at the record (8-21) and it is not good and he's in year three. However, Whitman believes in Lovie Smith and his buyout is prohibitive so they're not going to be able to get rid of him even if they wanted to in 2018. Smith is going to be able to build this from the ground up and they've gotten rid of a lot of Tim Beckman recruits so the roster next season will be mostly recruits he brought in. So, he'll have to start winning then. Smith is not on a hot seat. If Illinois had finished 1-11 or 2-10 this season, you would have been able to start talking about him being on the hot seat like they are doing constantly in the national media."

GoldandBlack.com: We did a piece this week of the difference of Jeff Brohm's 'win now' mode in year one at Purdue and Lovie Smith intentionally playing so many freshman in 2017. I have to imagine Smith was doing this knowing the purpose was to develop his program for 2019, 2020 and 2021, correct?

Bucshon: "Yes. What I would say about Lovie is he's very much going into coach-speak if he says otherwise (that he is not playing for the future), which he has done on more than on occasion. The Illinois staff made it an emphasis to get the freshmen on the field. There were upperclassmen who stuck around who could've played more than they were. This staff wanted those freshmen out there so they could get experience despite maybe being a better team with those older guys.

"For those of us in the Midwest, it's college football's version of the Theo Epstein model. How many years did the Chicago Cubs tank before they got really good? You don't get higher draft picks in college by losing games but what you do get is the opportunity to tell incoming recruits that they'll get a chance to see the field immediately because your position group doesn't have automatic starters just because certain players are older.

"The 2-10 record last year was a setback, but I think the future is better than that. I believe they have the proper size on both lines but they just need to add some playmakers at the skill spots. They need to replicate Purdue's ability to go get a player like Rondale Moore, but the future quarterback situation with (freshman) M.J. Rivers looks good."

GoldandBlack.com: What kind of game in terms of pace does Illinois need to have this game at to pull off an upset of Purdue?

Bucshon: "They'll need to outscore Purdue. The stats defensively were much better against Rutgers last week but I think that's fools' gold. Rutgers ran right at them with a power running game that went nowhere. Rutgers is playing a freshman quarterback and I don't think you can look at that game and think the defense has turned a corner just yet."

GoldandBlack.com: How do you see Saturday playing out in Champaign?

Bucshon: "The way each of these two teams have been playing, this has the makings of a shootout, and I think Illinois will have a tough time keeping up with Purdue in that kind of a contest. The Illini defense made strides last week against Rutgers, but the Purdue air attack with Blough will likely be too much for them.

Illinois will once again trying to get the running game going with the one-two punch of Corbin and Epstein. Purdue will likely sell out to stop the run, so I don't think Illinois will have quite as many long plays as we've seen so far this year. If the Boilermakers slow down the Illini running attack, look for them to beat the Vegas spread and cruise to a win. I'll go Purdue 42, Illinois 31."

Membership Info: Sign up for GoldandBlack.com now | Why join? | Questions?

Follow GoldandBlack.com: Twitter | Facebook

More: Gold and Black Illustrated/Gold and Black Express | Subscribe to our podcast

Copyright, Boilers, Inc. 2018. All Rights Reserved. Reproducing or using editorial or graphical content, in whole or in part, without permission, is strictly prohibited.