Purdue's offense stalled - against Penn State, against Texas A&M, and against Auburn.
Purdue's offense exists in a dichotomy. Kenpom has it ranked as the 9th best offense, but in splashes, Purdue has looked unstoppable. Against Alabama, TKR couldn't be contained in the post and Purdue's bevy of shooters provided the spacing for everything to work for Purdue to knock off the #2 team in the country.
Against another #2 team in the country, Auburn, the spacing didn't work.
"Our spacing is kinda bad," Braden Smith said matter of factly after the game.
"Teams that have beaten us have done a really good job of denying Braden the ball," Trey Kaufman-Renn diagnosed after a game Purdue shot just 23 of 59 from the floor. "And doing a really good job of putting more guys on him. Also pulling the low man and taking away the short roll."
Purdue's pick and roll offense with Trey Kaufman-Renn and Braden Smith is the bread and butter of what offensive architect and coordinator PJ Thompson has built into his expansive play book. Between all the juicy off ball screens and clever post ups, Smith's ability to get TKR the ball on the move and in the post off rolls is the support beam holding up Purdue's offense.
But for the last month, Purdue has taken on a murderer's row of defenses. The athleticism and size advantages, and more so, defensive connectiveness displayed against Purdue has shown fault lines and chasms in Purdue's offense. The support beam hasn't rotted, but it does need reinforcement.
But while games have absolute ends in the form of scores and losses, seasons don't balance on one or even four games before January.
There's cause for concern at Purdue. Its offense has been collapsed by defenses four times this season, but concern isn't damnation.
"We're not a great team," Matt Painter said after the game, a truth Painter hasn't had to deal with for a few seasons. "We're a good team and we need to work so hopefully come March we're a great team. Cause you're gonna have to get through somebody like that to get to a Final Four."
Thankfully, Purdue's difficult path also might have revealed which paths to take going forward.
"We need some guys to step up," Matt Painter said after the game.
Painter has also been clear about what hasn't been a problem: his team plays hard, they're good guys, team players, and they can shoot.
But shooting needs space and Purdue has a problem. They don't have a lot of guys that are creating it for themselves.
Fletcher Loyer had 12 points in the first half against Texas A&M, making shots, and creating looks for himself, but in the second half he didn't score. Against Auburn, Loyer was 3 of 12 and struggled to get anything going.
Loyer is Purdue's second option on the perimeter. Which on most nights, is good. But Loyer needs space, thrives on it, with his careful manipulation of angles, his threat of shooting, and his ability to be clever with the ball has allowed him to thrive on the attention paid by Purdue's interior presences. Without Edey this season, teams are no longer prioritizing sending bodies inside in the post to get the ball out of Zach Edey's hands. Purdue's catch and shoot open threes aren't as simple anymore.
Loyer has been tasked with creating more of his own space, something his lack of speed and quickness makes difficult against elite defenders and teams with rim protectors and length against him.
Purdue had a lot of hopes in the off season of internal growth. Camden Heide and Myles Colvin carried a lot of that optimism. The big wings have shot the ball well, defended well, rebounded well, but they've still not taken major strides in creating shots for themselves.
But Heide and Colvin's role remains as perimeter shooters above everything else. They are a conduit towards a circuitry board that flows, but they aren't the current. Which means when they go 0-4 from three like they did against Auburn, even when the looks are good, Purdue's offense collapses because there's not been enough power around them.
Unless, what happened at the end of the Auburn game wasn't just a blip in a blow out loss.
For the first time this season, Purdue's highest scorer wasn't one of Purdue's three junior leaders.
Braden Smith, Trey Kaufman-Renn, and Fletcher Loyer have been Purdue's leaders on and off the court, but on offense, they need help.
Help showed up at the end of the first half and again in the second half of the second half, when C.J. Cox went off for 16 points on 3 of 5 shooting from three including a four-point play, and two more drawn fouls on three-point attempts.
Cox came into Purdue as an unknown, but those that did know him, knew that he was more than just his reputation as a defender. Cox is also one hell of a scorer in isolation. If you watched his high school tape, you saw a guard with controlled handles and elite footwork to get to his shots.
"We have individuals that we wear out a little bit," Matt Painter said after the game.
TKR and Braden Smith both played thirty plus minutes against Auburn and they both wore the loss with +/-'s of -28 for TKR and -27 for Smith.
It's not hard to see where the stress of Purdue's entire jam-packed schedule has fallen. Purdue has played three straight top-10 defenses, and before that, played a string of turnover merchants that have pressed, switched, and made every minute on the floor difficult for Smith and Kaufman-Renn.
In 19 minutes and 22 seconds as part of an 18 point loss, C.J. Cox had a +1 differential.
Purdue has a lot of smart players. Kaufman-Renn has joined Smith as an elite play maker with the ball in his hands. Loyer knows how to pick spots and take angles.
Purdue doesn't need another person picking his spots. Purdue needs a guard that make his spots.
"He's more of a lead guard than he is a point guard," Matt Painter said after the game about C.J. Cox and his relationship to the point guard position. "With him, we work on those reads and talk about those reads and then we tell him to shoot it."
Purdue's season won't come down to one win or one loss in December. The calendar is biased like that.
But in March, the season might come down to just that one thing up there, Cox shooting it, and his willingness to keep doing it.