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Published Feb 25, 2022
The 411: #4 Purdue at Michigan State
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Brian Neubert  •  BoilerUpload
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THE GAME

Fourth-ranked and Big Ten co-leading Purdue comes out of its bye week facing a crucial three-game stretch to close the regular season, starting with this visit to Michigan State, which seems like it might be cratering down the stretch after three consecutive losses.

This is the only meeting of the regular season between the two schools.

THE PARTICULARS

Date: Saturday, Feb. 26, 2022

Time: 12 p.m. ET

TV: ESPN

Radio: Purdue Radio Network (96.5 WAZY locally)

NUMBERS AND SUCH
TeamAPCoachesNETKenPomKenPom - Win%

Purdue

4

7

10

13

59%

Michigan State

ARV

24

36

34

41%

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ABOUT #4 PURDUE (24-4, 13-4 B1G)

Schedule | Roster | Stats

• Now tied with just Wisconsin atop the Big Ten with a 13-4 record, Purdue just enjoyed a timely bye week in advance of what it hopes will be a final push toward a conference championship.

• Purdue's won its last four meetings with Michigan State, including last year's thriller in East Lansing.

• The Boilermakers remain the No. 1 team in college basketball in offensive efficiency, per KenPom, and post three of the top 15 individuals in offensive rating: Zach Edey (2), Trevion Williams (10) and Jaden Ivey (15).

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PURDUE LINEUPS

STARTERS

C — 15 Zach Edey (7-4, 295, So.)

14.5 PPG • 68.2% FG • 7.6 REB • 1.1 BLK

Edey's done an outstanding job lately as a passer, but if history is any indication, this may be a game where Purdue needs him to score. Michigan State has generally gone one on one in the post.

F — 0 Mason Gillis (6-6, 230, So.)

6.9 PPG • 4.4 REB • 52.9% FG • 47.1% 3-PT • 85.7% FT

After a brief shooting slump, Gillis is back on track. He's quietly done a nice job defensively lately, and that'll be important for Purdue in East Lansing, as the Spartans' forwards can all shoot.

G — 55 Sasha Stefanovic (6-5, 205, Sr.)

11.6 PPG • 40.6% 3-PT • 3.4 AST

Stefanovic carries huge minutes for Purdue and is one of those who may have really benefited from some rest this past week. He's going to need all the energy he can muster against a Spartan team that'll make him work for every bit of space. Michigan State's generally had success slowing Stefanovic the past few years.

G — 2 Eric Hunter (6-4, 175, Sr.)

5.6 PPG • 1.8 AST • 47.9% FG • 44% 3-PT

Hunter's excellent play during the second half of this season has been one of the main reasons a Big Ten championship's within reach.

G —23 Jaden Ivey (6-4, 195, So.) (?)

17.3 PPG • 46.3% FG • 36.9% 3-PT • 4.9REB • 3.1 AST

After just one day off, Ivey was brilliant against Rutgers. Now, he's gotten two. He was excellent against the Scarlet Knights, though he's riding a cold streak from three-point range — 0-for-10 the past two games. All the more reason, maybe, to really focus on attacking the lane.

ROTATION

C — 50 Trevion Williams (6-10, 255, Sr.)

12.0 PPG • 55.6% FG • 7.5 REB • 3.1 AST

In his final game in his adopted home state of Michigan, Williams returns to the site of some of the biggest moments of his college career, from his coming-out party as a freshman to his game-winner last season as a junior.

G —11 Isaiah Thompson (6-1, 160, Jr.)

5.1 PPG • 43.2% 3-PT

Thompson's 3-for-4 from three the past two games. Now would be a great time for him to get hot.

G — 25 Ethan Morton (6-6, 215, So.)

2.7 PPG • 1.6 AST • 50% FG • 46.2% 3-PT

Morton's logged double-digit minutes the past four games.

F — 3 Caleb Furst (6-10, 230, Fr.)

4.4 PPG • 3.5 RPG • 58.1% FG • 40.9% 3-PT

Furst's hustle and tenacity are the sorts of things a team needs to win at Michigan State, but a defensive challenge may lie in the Spartan forwards' ability to shoot.

G — 5 Brandon Newman (6-5, 200, So.)

5.0 PPG • 32.5% 3-PT • 85% FT

Freshmen Trey Kaufman-Renn and Brian Waddell will redshirt this season. Waddell will miss most of the season after tearing his ACL and Kaufman-Renn is now sidelined up to six weeks after undergoing foot surgery.

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ABOUT MICHIGAN STATE (18-9, 9-7 B1G)

Schedule | Roster | Stats

• After starting off well against a manageable early Big Ten schedule, Michigan State's lost three straight and five of its last six, the most recent setback being an eyesore of a 26-point blowout loss at Iowa on Tuesday night. In two homes games against Big Ten contenders, the Spartans fell to both Wisconsin and Illinois.

• This is not a typical Michigan State team from talent and starpower perspectives, as the Spartans likely won't even have an All-Big Ten player off this roster. No Spartan ranks among the top 25 in Big Ten play in scoring, as its most talented players are its youngest players.

• Michigan State is second in the Big Ten, behind Purdue, in three-point percentage, at 37.5 percent. The Spartans are No. 1 in three-point defense, allowing just 31.3-percent shooting from long range.

• The Spartans lead the Big Ten in free throw percentage, at just under 80 percent.

• Michigan State's one of the most turnover-prone teams in the conference, last in the Big Ten with a turnover percentage of nearly 20 percent, an issue amplified — similar to Purdue — by the fact that the Spartans don't force many turnovers, either.

MICHIGAN STATE LINEUPS

STARTERS

F - 44 Gabe Brown (6-8, 215, Sr.)

11.4 PPG • 4.1 REB • 35.1% 3-PT

Brown's plateaued a bit since opening the season on a tear, but he remains a considerable threat from long range, especially in transition.

F - 10 Joey Hauser (6-9, 230, Sr.)

7.0 PPG • 5.6 RPG • 39.4% 3-PT

Another frontcourt shooting threat for Michigan State, Hauser's a near 40-percent three-point shooter. Between him and Mason Gillis, this will be a matchup of two pretty good shooting 4 men.

C - 30 Marcus Bingham Jr. (7-0 230, Sr.)

9.2 PPG • 6.1 AST • 55% FG • 37.5% 3-PT

The wiry center possesses the sort of length that can be problematic for opposing 5 men, but he will be hard pressed to keep Zach Edey and Trevion Williams out of their spots, and Michigan State has historically gone one-on-one on the interior and asked its bigs to fight, though that may not be realistic this year. Offensively, he can step out and shoot, and that's always a matchup concern at that position for Purdue.

G - 5 Max Christie (6-6, 190, Fr.)

9.5 PPG • 3.4 REB • 31.3% 3-PT

One of the Big Ten's better freshmen, the tall, long and skilled wing is a future pro who can shoot from all levels.

G - 11 A.J. Hoggard (6-4, 210, So.)

6.6 PPG • 5.1 AST

Point guard play has been one of Michigan State's issues since Cassius Winston left. Hoggard started against Iowa, but he'll split minutes with Tyson Walker.

KEY RESERVES

G - 2 Tyson Walker (6-0, 175, Jr.)

8.1 PPG • 4.3 AST • 57.1% 3-PT

The transfer that Michigan State recruited to address its point guard need, Walker's season has been uneven, but at his best, he gives the Spartans a scorer at the 1 and he's been amazingly efficient from three-point range this season.

F - 25 Malik Hall (6-8, 225, Jr.)

10.0 PPG • 4.9 REB • 50.9% 3-PT

Hall's productivity has been all over the map this season, as he's been just as likely to be a non-factor as he's been to be one of the Spartans' stalwarts. But he's made a bunch of big plays late in games this season and can really shoot from the 4.

F - 34 Julius Marble (6-9, 245, Jr.)

6.4 PPG • 3.6 RPG • 63% FG

Marble's a bigger, more physical post defender than Bingham, and he'll be put to good use against the Boilermakers. His toughness and physicality would probably have to be part of a winning formula for the Spartans.

G - 3 Jaden Akins (6-4, 180, Fr.)

3.4 PPG • 2.4 RPG • 35.1% 3-PT

The freshman guard has a chance to be a really good one for the Spartans in time. He's shown flashes this season.

IN-GAME AND POST-GAME COVERAGE

Stay dialed in to GoldandBlack.com during the game for our pre-game First Thoughts analysis. During the game, follow along with our game thread and follow @brianneubert on Twitter for additional insight.

Following the game, we'll have post-game press conference video, game coverage, analysis, our Wrap Video and Final Thoughts, plus a Gold and Black Radio podcast within a few hours of the end of the game.

Stay tuned.

THREE KEYS FOR PURDUE
TAKE CARE OF THE BALLROTATIONS AND CLOSEOUTSREBOUNDING

This is Purdue's single-biggest must every time out for the remainder of the season. Turnovers have been central to the blueprint for beating Purdue, and the good news there is it's something that should be controllable to a certain extent.

This game could be as simple as coming down to the three-point line, because both these teams can shoot, and Michigan State does a good job defending the three and has generally done a decent job keeping Sasha Stefanovic in check. But Job 1 for Purdue here is to keep the Spartans from getting hot.

This isn't Michigan State's strength, atypical of the Spartans' historical identity. Second chances are going to loom large on Saturday. There's still untapped potential for Purdue on the offensive glass.

PREDICTION: PURDUE 74, MICHIGAN STATE 70

Michigan State is as low a ceiling a Spartan team as has been seen in some time and looks like it's in the tank right now, but this is one of those programs that you don't write off at any time. And this Big Ten season more than most has shown us that every single game can be a season unto itself, as if nothing else matters than what's happening in a given moment.

But Purdue ought to be energized by its break, buoyed by extra time to prepare, and particularly driven by all it's playing for right now.

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