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Published May 6, 2020
Weekly Word: Expectations for football, the danger in data and more
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Brian Neubert  •  BoilerUpload
GoldandBlack.com staff
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@brianneubert
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EXPECTATIONS FOR THIS SEASON TO (HOPEFULLY) COME

If there's college football this season, Purdue is going to have some challenges to overcome.

While the first-of-their-kind limits put on this off-season by the COVID-19 outbreak aren't unique to Purdue — they are everyone's problem — they can affect some more than others, and the Boilermakers had a quarterback situation to figure and a new defense to install this spring and summer.

Maybe something close to a standard offseason can still be salvaged, but that remains to be seen.

That being said, no matter the circumstances, if there's a season, it will be an important one for Purdue football, a chance to legitimize last season's injury plague as the culprit behind last season's 4-8 record and give folks reason to believe that trajectory toward big things is still in place.

There are issues to weigh preseason expectations against.

The first that comes to mind to me is quarterback, because of the context the position belongs in. When in Purdue's history has it been really good without high-level quarterback play? This is an offensive-minded program coached by former quarterbacks and geared toward quarterback play, and it just stands to reason to suggest that quarterback play matters even more here. Throw in the fact Purdue may have the two best wide receivers in school history on the roster at the same time, and that adds to the importance.

Right now, Purdue has a two-man race at QB that could be a three-man race this fall when transfer Austin Burton shows up and gets a playbook thrown in his lap.

It's an unknown, as is the defense, transitioning to a new system. I'm sure the system Is just fine, but systems are made by piecing fitting, and that's what has to happen now.

We'll see.

I do think this jacked-up offseason can benefit those programs with high levels of experience and continuity. I would call Purdue neither.

Those are two biggest, broadest questions, to me, beyond the leviathan-type questions about the offseason and Purdue's ability to not get backed over by the injury bus two years in a row. And the schedule, which is stiff, provided it's actually played.

If a full season is played, the best case scenario for Purdue is to not just jump back to the six-win level of Years 1 and 2 under Jeff Brohm, but beyond it.

It would be a hell of a season if it could, but there are headwinds.

A DANGEROUS GAME

As the world starts gradually spinning again amidst many states' phased "reopenings," debates can certainly be had over whether we're rushing normalcy. Obviously rushing normalcy for many legitimate reasons, and some not-so-legitimate reasons, but rushing normalcy nonetheless, at the potential risk of setback.

Decisions, though, are being made based off data, and ultimately, it will be data that looms large in determining whether there's college football this fall.

Here's what bothers me, however, about data.

Normally, it's beyond reproach.

From 2014-2019, Jose Altuve hit .298 or better, giving good reason to believe he'll top .300 yet again in 2020, garbage can-banging notwithstanding.

The thing about data, though, is context, the ability to make sense of what the numbers tell you.

Altuve's track record at the plate told us over a long period of time that he hit well because he is a good and consistent enough hitter to where you could reasonably predict future outcomes.

With COVID-19, that's the issue. This may be too new to truly have context worth applying.

Data is inherently born from the past tense. We have data on what COVID has done in this city or that city, where it's getting better and where it's getting worse.

We have no data on what happens when people start coming out of their homes, businesses start opening and mitigation slows. We already have ample proof that a segment of our population will lean toward what they have the right to do as opposed to what they should do, or are being asked to do, and no data to reflect what such things might mean for the collective. In short, we have no data to tell us whether this could push us back to Square 1, or some subsequent square. We have no precedent, either, to suggest that all won't be just fine.

As it relates to college football, we have data that tells us that young, healthy people are the least likely to die from coronavirus (even though I will repeat that death of the affected is not the only undesirable outcome). We also have data that suggest that football teams might be statistically safe to practice outdoors during thunderstorms. Go find me one that does.

But we do have data that tells us young, healthy people should have the least to worry about. We also have data that suggests that African-Americans are roughly two-and-a-half times more likely to die from coronavirus than white people. Why? That's a question we probably don't have enough perspective at this point to answer.

We have data on what has happened. We have no data on what can happen. We don't know for certain whether the recovered can be reinfected. We don't know what a second wave of this may look like. We don't know what the risk quotient of a phased re-opening in the name of the economy is exactly. We have no vaccine and won't in the short term. We don't have enough testing, but hopefully we will in the short term.

That's where we are, and that's the really uncomfortable part of the conversation about college football returning.

Data is what we know, but data can't tell us what we don't know.

RANDOM THOUGHTS

• I don't know why I feel compelled to say this, but watching "Last Dance," it strikes me as too bad that former Bulls general manager Jerry Krause was the way he was, because I'm not sure anyone in the history of sports has ever done a better job of team-building. He should be remembered as a conquering hero, not a punchline.

Obviously, Michael Jordan may be the greatest winner in the history of sports and one of the greatest players ever at any level of any sport, but during the Bulls' championship years, he was surrounded by an Ideal supporting cast and tremendous continuity.

It was Krause who drafted from the middle of nowhere Scottie Pippen, who is criminally under-rated in the history of NBA basketball to me. When Pippen was hurt, those teams struggled. When Tex Winter's triangle offense really empowered Pippen more than anyone else, the Bulls took off. Very few superstars in the NBA have gone it alone and won big and Pippen's role in Chicago's dynasty simply doesn't get talked about enough.

Meanwhile, the Bulls always had the ideal mix around their two stars, shotmakers on the perimeter, grinders on the interior and people who would guard you. They were damn near the perfect team, and the reasons they were so good were largely the same as the reasons Purdue's basketball team last year was so good. Ownership of roles and a blend of players who filled in the gaps amongst themselves. People who knew their place and stuck to it.

Promoting Phil Jackson from within to replace Doug Collins might have been the greatest coaching hire ever made. Like, ever.

Adding Ron Harper and Dennis Rodman on the fly were strokes of genius by that front office, and the latter a move a team doesn't make unless it knows for damn certain what it has in its locker room. A room full of kings can handle the occasional wildcard. It's when you draw too many jokers that you have problems.

Toni Kukoc was a good move, albeit an awkwardly executed one.

Looking back at that era, I'm not sure Krause made a wrong move, other than breaking the whole thing up, essentially. Ego does what ego does.

It's just too bad he'll never be remembered for what he did more than what his ego did.

• A thought on recruiting: You are seeing a time where football recruits are moving quicker than normal toward decisions because of this dead period, and that will create the very real possibility that this off-season might yield a particularly flimsy commitment on average. When players commit to a school they have not visited — in this case, could not visit — that, to me, is a red flag. Those are the conditions on the ground for a lot of schools, and If the summer doesn't open back up for official visits, then you may see the greatest game of musical chairs ever come winter.

Recruits are essentially picking colleges out of a catalogue right now, and though visits have ceased, the impulse to reserve your spot has not. And let's be honest, there are kids out there committing out of boredom most likely.

The schools with the best relationships will have an advantage, but neither side here has any control over this process right now, and that's one of the many reasons this is a year in college football the likes of which we'll hopefully never see again.

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