Weekly Word: Fearful Predictions, ultimate pressure and more
Today, GoldandBlack.com continues a new weekly feature. We're calling it the Weekly Word.
Why? Because it has words, it's posted weekly and we're just that unimaginative. (Actual feedback from Week 1: Definitely like the content, but a new name would be useful.)
Anyway, here are some random thoughts for the week, most of which will be Purdue-related.
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Fearful Predictions: Most sites have fearless predictions.
Not us. Ours scare the hell out of us.
Yet, we keep on with them ...
• It's been a while for Purdue and the Bubble, years actually since the Boilermakers last encountered NCAA Tournament uncertainty.
They will this year.
Whether it's at the very end of the season, or sometime after its midway point, Purdue's place in the NCAA Tournament will be up in the air.
Why, you ask?
You mean, other than having no idea how good this team will be, for myriad reasons?
The non-conference schedule.
Look, it stands to reason to suggest that with all that is new about this team — whether it's roles or faces or whatever — it may not be a straight line off the bat. This is going to be a process.
And as things have turned out — and pre-conference schedules do work out as much as they're planned out these days — November and December are not a soft runway.
Florida State and Texas on the road, Notre Dame in Indy and maybe Virginia Tech in Charleston, that gauntlet away from Mackey Arena is a daunting one.
And this might be Purdue's most vulnerable team in some time to the dreaded non-conference landmine loss.
Maybe I'm being "negative," I don't know.
But I don't think anyone knows anything, really.
• Ryan Cline will average at least 13 points per game and shoot better than 43 percent from three-point range.
Cline's been ridiculous in preseason play, but something that should be understood is this: He will not benefit from the same offensive balance some of last year's offensive standouts did and if he shoots the way he's been thus far, he will become a marked man.
So it won't be easy.
But those sorts of numbers will be reasonable.
• Purdue will turn it over too much.
It's probably inevitable and to some extent the cost of doing business with how it's going to want to, or have to, play.
But that's not to say it can't be made up for. This team should generate more turnovers, so as one statistical column increases, it may be met with equal growth.
Purdue has a long way to go defensively, it would appear, but it will be much more assertive, much bolder, and more equipped physically to create mistakes by opponents.
It will take more risks, but with one of college basketball's best shot-blockers protecting the paint, it can afford to.
• Carsen Edwards averages 21 points per game.
It's going to be a challenge for the Boilermaker All-American to maintain last season's percentages on higher volume and exponentially increased responsibility, but his scoring numbers should rise obviously.
If 21 sounds modest, you might be right, but also consider that this isn't just about scoring this season for him.
While it does remain to be seen where Purdue gets consistent scoring outside of No. 3, it doesn't need 40 from him every night. It needs whatever comes out of him being aggressive, whether that's scoring, facilitating or simply affecting games for the better through his distinct style.
Edwards is going to be a marked man this season himself, and because of it, his poise and decision-making come to the forefront. His assist numbers may jump more than his scoring, proportionally, at least.
You'll hear it all season long about possessions. It's going to be a possessions game for Purdue this season. It's going to be on Edwards more so than any other player to help Purdue make the most of its possessions.
• Matt Haarms takes a significant step forward.
He may not be a sophomore All-American like Caleb Swanigan or Edwards before him, but he'll be more of an offensive weapon than people think, a better rebounder than seems to be generally expected and a transformational defender beyond what initially meets the eye.
He'll establish himself as Purdue's next standout big man, if he's not already.
• Free throws are a significant worry all season and maybe cost Purdue a game it should win. It has to be considered an urgent concern until proven otherwise.
• Grady Eifert starts every game at the 4.
Provided he's healthy, of course.
Trust goes a long with coaches and experience matters, especially for this team.
Purdue needs rebounding on the floor and Matt Painter clearly believes Eifert's complementary nature suits this team well, as Edwards-centric as it's going to be.
Eifert helped the Boilermakers win games last season and he'll get plenty of chances again.
• Fans will like this team. There may be some bumps in the road, but energy and effort shouldn't be an issue. This will be one of the more exuberant teams Matt Painter's had at Purdue and Mackey Arena tends to respond favorably to such things.
• You will bring these predictions back at me in three months in a mocking tone.
As you should. We should all be made to stand by our predictions.
Ultimate Pressure: Iowa's won a hell of a lot of games during its many years under Kirk Ferentz, a good deal of them in a very distinct sort of way: By not jacking around and doing stupid things. Iowa's long been that team happy to stand back and let the other team screw everything up.
I'm not sure I can think of a better illustration, then, of how formidable Purdue's passing offense has been lately than it compelling Ferentz to deviate from his program's very identity. It made Iowa screw it up.
Early in the second half Saturday, David Blough connected on an 82-yard touchdown to Terry Wright, Purdue's third long scoring pass of the day, to push its lead to 28-17.
Iowa answered with a scoring drive of its own.
Then, it went for two.
There were more than 12 minutes left.
In the third quarter.
And Iowa was only down five.
That might have been the most anti-Ferentz-ish thing ever, and it may have cost Iowa the game, as it turned out. The Hawkeyes failed on that two-point try, then another, then lost by the margin of the two PATs they never kicked.
But Purdue made Iowa err, winning a psych-ops game within the game and affecting Iowa's very management of the game.
Ferentz said later he was gearing up for a game in the 40s and thought he needed points wherever there were points to be had. Translation: He had no reason to think his normally very good defense could stop Purdue.
Turned out, the points he needed were right there for the taking.
And he just didn't.
Best Case Scenario: Jeff Brohm had two highly regarded wide receiver prospects at the Iowa game as part of their official visits.
It was if they let them call the plays.
David Bell and Milton Wright saw an exciting game amidst an energized environment was nice.
What was better from Purdue's perspective was the illustration of fit, as important as anything in recruiting.
The Boilermakers threw deep a half dozen times, all to outside-receiver positions, all to seniors, and won a big game on the back of its vertical-passing identity.
This was Bell's second game at Purdue this season.
In the first, the Boilermakers lost to Missouri, but not without the quarterback throwing the ball for just under a third of a mile's worth of yardage, 572 to be exact.
In Purdue's two home games with Bell in attendance, David Blough has thrown for 905 yards and seven touchdowns and the Boilermakers have scored 78 points.
Purdue's coaches have done a nice job in recruiting for this 2019 class, and may very well close strong, with at least one of the two receivers who were in town this weekend, maybe even both.
And if they do, it may largely be because Purdue didn't just tell them something, it showed them.
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