Do you hear that? It's the sound of silence ... or near silence. That's what Ross-Ade Stadium and other college football venues across the nation could sound like in 2020.
Speculation continues to swirl about if fans will be allowed to attend games this season as America battles the coronavirus pandemic that has killed thousands and wrecked many segments of the economy. And there is no end in sight.
But, slowly, society is beginning to open back up. And sports are plotting a return, too. For college athletics to make a comeback, NCAA president Mark Emmert and others in control at universities have said students must be on campuses. Many school presidents--including Purdue's Mitch Daniels--have vowed to open business-as-usual this fall. We shall see.
If all goes well and students are on campuses, the football season that is the economic engine of athletic department across the nation will begin. Games will be televised, and conferences again will cash big TV rights checks.
But the next question looms: Will fans be allowed to attend games? If so, how many will be permitted inside? Or, will stadiums sit empty as players block and tackle?
The Big Ten is home to some of the biggest, loudest and most intimidating stadiums in the nation. Michigan Stadium, Ohio State and Beaver Stadium are among the most daunting venues for opposing teams to play in. Each provides a decided home-field advantage for the Wolverines, Buckeyes and Nittany Lions, respectively.
Last season, the average attendance at FBS games was 41,477. The Big Ten averaged 65,065, ranking No. 2 in the nation behind the SEC (72,723). The top three schools in the nation in home attendance in 2019 were Big Ten members: 1. Michigan (111,459), 2. Penn State (105,678), 3. Ohio State (103,383). BTN analyst Gerry DiNardo thinks some fans will be allowed in games in 2020--but not numbers like those.
"I don't know how a university can justify that it's safe for the students to come back, which makes it safe for the athletes," said DiNardo. "And then say that it's not safe for the fans. I think it's a contradiction. Now, if they want to do social distancing, half of Ohio State's fans are still more than most places have."
Empty stadium, quarter-full, half-full ... the bottom line is this: stadiums won't be as intimidating in 2020 without packed stands.
Imagine Penn State's Beaver Stadium being empty or sparsely filled when Ohio State visits on October 24 in what shapes up as one of the most important games on the 2020 Big Ten schedule. Or how will Nebraska's Memorial Stadium look when Purdue rolls into town on September 5 to kick off the 2020 season? If stadiums are empty or partially filled, DiNardo thinks it would be an edge to the visiting team which won't have to deal with a hostile environment.
"That helps Purdue more than it helps Nebraska," said DiNardo, referencing the Boilermakers' big season-opener in Lincoln. "I think it helps the visiting teams playing in the toughest stadiums."
Former Illinois coach Bill Cubit disagrees. He thinks it is the home team that will be at a disadvantage if stadiums are empty or rattling with a reduced capacity. Not having that customary throng of revved-up zealots could be a downer to a home team that is used to being fueled by a big, loud crowd.
"When you go on the road, you anticipate there's nobody in your corner," said Cubit, who coached the Fighting Illini in 2015 and also was head coach at Western Michigan from 2005-12. "Usually at home, you have all of these people behind you. Now, they are not there. For a team like a Michigan or Ohio State, all of a sudden, you take away that advantage.
"But there are schools like Northwestern that don't get big crowds. They don't feed on the crowds as much as maybe Ohio State or Michigan."
Lack of fans could make it difficult for a team to get motivated to play.
"I can remember playing home games at Western (Michigan) was pretty nice," said Cubit. "But when you went away to some other place and had maybe a couple hundred people in the stands, it was tough for our kids to adjust to it. Our kids often came out flat."
A big part of sports--particularly college football--is home-field advantage. And that edge is energized by huge partisan crowds cheering for their school. Thousands of screaming fans can provide a huge lift to the home team, while causing confusion and angst among visitors.
And then there are the marching bands, whose loud brass and color are such a big part of a Saturday in the college stadiums. They pump atmosphere into venues. Will they exist in 2020 amid social-distancing measures?
"This is the contradiction," said DiNardo. "If you say there won't be marching bands whether there are fans in the stands or not, what you're saying is we can put the athletes at all this risk, but we can't put the marching band at risk. They're both students at the same institution. That's the tricky part about college football as opposed to NFL football. They have none of those issues. They can play with nobody in the stands, call it a business and put it on TV."
DiNardo thinks it's more likely the NFL will play sans fans.
"I think there's a possibility the NFL goes ahead with no fans," said DiNardo. "I don't think that's likely on a college level."
The home-road record splits for Big Ten teams the last three years shows the edge schools have playing in their friendly confines. From 2017-19, Big Ten teams went 181-105 (.633) in all home homes games. On the road, Big Ten squads went 99-114 (.465) in all games.
But with stadiums possibly empty or only partially filled, the home-field advantage figures to be negated. And that could create more of a neutral-site feel to games in 2020, which could translate to more success for visiting schools--or not.
Something to keep in mind as we steam toward a 2020 season that is shaping up to be unlike any we ever have experienced in our lifetime.
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