2024 Big Ten Tournament Bracketology

In less than a week the conference will gather in Minneapolis for the annual Big Ten Tournament. This is often a celebration of basketball in the conference. This year there is not a lot of drama in terms of the NCAA Tournament Bubble. Purdue, Illinois, and Wisconsin are locks to make it. Northwestern, Nebraska, and Michigan State are solidly in the field. The only team that is close to the Bubble is Iowa, who is making a late push to make it.

For the other half of the league, it is the automatic bid or bust. That doesn’t really work, either. The lowest seed to ever win the event, and thus steal a bid, was 8 seed Michigan in 2017. Iowa won as a 6 seed in 2001, but those are really the only examples of a team stealing a bid.

Typically, one of the top four teams wins this. Only four times has a team won four games in four days to win the event. Three of those occurred in the last seven years, most recently with Iowa winning as a 5 seed in 2021.

Everyone has just one game left in the regular season (except for Rutgers and Wisconsin, who play tonight), but the tournament picture is very much in flux. Here is what we know in terms of seeding so far.

No. 1 Seed Purdue – For the second year in a row Purdue is the top seed, and it has a great chance of defending its title from last year. Purdue is a two-time winner (2009 and 2023) and has made the final an additional four times. A win on Saturday gives Purdue a 17-3 conference record, which would be the best record in the 14-team, 20-game era of the Big Ten. Only Wisconsin in 2015, who went 16-2, did better. Purdue will play at Noon ET on Friday.

No. 2 Seed Illinois – At 13-6, Illinois is locked into the 2 seed before traveling to Iowa this weekend. They have won the event in 2003, 2005, and 2021 and reached the final an additional four times. Illinois will play at approximately 8pm ET on Friday.

No. 14 Seed Michigan – All the way at the bottom is Michigan, who is locked into the 14 seed at 3-16 before this weekend’s games. They will play at approximately 8pm on Wednesday night.

Everything else is up for grabs. Here is what is at stake this weekend.

The Last Two Double Byes

While Purdue and Illinois are locked into the top two seeds, the last two double byes are up for grabs. Nebraska, Northwestern, Iowa, and Wisconsin are the four9** teams battling for that. Michigan State can get in a four-way tie for third with those teams, but with a 1-4 record against them they cannot get the double bye.

Nebraska is at Michigan, and a win over the Wolverines gives them the three seed. If they finish tied with Northwestern they have the tiebreaker because they were 1-0 against Purdue and Northwestern was 1-1 (it is based on winning percentage against the highest team in the standings on down after head-to-head). That brings the last spot down to Northwestern and Wisconsin. Wisconsin holds the tiebreaker over the Wildcats, so if they finish tied with Northwestern (who plays Minnesota this weekend) Wisconsin gets the spot. Northwestern needs Wisconsin to lose to Rutgers tonight or at Purdue on Saturday, plus they need to beat Minnesota.

There exists a scenario where Iowa can still get the 4 seed too if it beats Illinois, Purdue beats Wisconsin, Rutgers beats Wisconsin, Indiana beats Michigan State, and Minnesota beats Northwestern.

Who is Playing on Wednesday

The only time a team that a team has gone from Wednesday’s first round to Saturday’s semifinals was Ohio State last year as a 13 seed. They won five Big Ten games all year, but won three in the conference tournament. Any team that plays on Wednesday has a long road to steal the autobid, but such is the price for 3 months of bad basketball.

As mentioned above, Michigan is locked into the 14 seed. The other three slots are down to Oho State, Penn State, Rutgers, and Maryland. With only seven wins each it seems likely that Rutgers and Maryland are headed to Wednesday, where they would play each other in the 12/13 game that is sure to break attendance records with the two farthest teams from Minneapolis. Ohio State and Penn State are both 8-11, and Ohio State holds the tiebreaker over the Nittany Lions by virtue of its win over Purdue since they split the season series with Penn State. If Ohio State wins at Rutgers on Sunday your Wednesday games are set with Penn State against Michigan and Rutgers against Maryland.

Who Would Purdue Play?

Purdue is locked into playing the winner of the 8/9 noon game on Thursday, and that could mean a potential third matchup with Indiana. It is hard to believe, but Purdue and Indiana have only played each other once in the entire history of the Big Ten Tournament. That was back in the first event in 1998, and Purdue won. Indiana is currently tied with Minnesota for 8th and holds the tiebreaker over the Gophers thanks to a season sweep.

Ohio State can get into this game because they have the tiebreaker with Indiana should the Buckeyes beat Rutgers and Indiana loses to Michigan State. If Indiana beats Michigan State they cane finish as high as the seven seed, while Michigan State and Ohio State could be in the 8/9 game.

Most likely Purdue will play some combination of Michigan State, Indiana, Minnesota, or Ohio State. Iowa can slip into the 8/9 game if it loses to Illinois, so it probably has the wildest variance here depending on what happens.

There is a great place to calculate all the scenarios for the remaining eight games right here.

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