Last night’s loss stings for Purdue. The Boilermakers led for nearly 35 minutes of game time and had a double digit lead in both halves only to fall by 2. This was after blowing out the Wolverines just a few weeks ago.

It is not a crippling loss though. Michigan now sits atop the league with a game in hand at 11-2. Purdue also did, at least, get a split with the Wolverines thanks to the win in Mackey Arena.

With roughly a month to go in the season some times have as little as five games left in league play, while some have as many as eight. I can see 15-5 being enough to at least be in the conversation for the league title, while 16-4 would almost certainly get a share. That leaves six teams left with a semi-realistic shot at the title:

Maryland Terrapins – 18-6, 8-5 – The Terps have won five of their last six and the one loss was a late three point loss at Ohio State. They have seven games remaining, but just two are against teams that are NCAA Tourney locks as of right now. One of those is Michigan State, who has to come to College Park. They have a tricky game at Nebraska Thursday night, but after that the schedule is extremely favorable with four home games and trips to Penn State and Michigan. They have narrow losses at Washington and Northwestern that are holding them back.

Maryland probably needs to run the table, but it is possible. They are at least a spoiler.

Remaining Schedule: 2/13 at Nebraska, 2/16 vs. Iowa, 2/20 vs. USC, 2/26 vs. Michigan State, 3/1 at Penn State, 3/5 at Michigan, 3/8 vs. Northwestern

Prediction: 14-6

UCLA Bruins – 18-7, 9-5 – The Bruins had clawed their way back into the race with a seven game winning streak, then they lost at Illinois last night. Now they are like Maryland in that they likely have to win out in order to get a share of the league. Also like Maryland, that is possible, but their travel situation is much tougher. UCLA is at Indiana this Friday before going back to the West Coast for two home games. They then come back east to play Purdue and Northwestern.

UCLA’s game in Mackey Arena is likely their largest roadblock left. Their four game losing streak earlier this year, which included a loss at Rutgers, is what is holding them back. That was in a nine day stretch where they played at Nebraska, hosted Michigan, then went to Maryland and Rutgers. They really have had a travel nightmare, but the West Coast schools knew this going in.

Remaining Schedule: 2/14 at Indiana, 2/18 vs. Minnesota, 2/23 vs. Ohio State, 2/28 at Purdue, 3/3 at Northwestern, 3/8 vs. USC

Prediction: 13-7

Wisconsin Badgers – 19-5, 9-4 – I think you officially have to qualify Wisconsin as “lurking". They dropped both December games in conference play, but have quietly played some really good basketball and they are the one team in the top 4 without a head scratcher of a loss. They have a great chance to stay in the race with games left against Purdue and Michigan State.

Saturday’s game at Purdue is huge for both teams. Wisconsin is just 6-43 all-time in Mackey Arena, and one of those wins was in the 2021 NCAA Tournament over North Carolina. Three of their last four games are against teams that may not even make the Big Ten Tournament, so they can make a huge statement with a win Saturday.

Remaining Schedule: 2/15 at Purdue, 2/18 vs. Illinois, 2/22 vs. Oregon, 2/25 Washington, 3/2 at Michigan State, 3/5 at Minnesota, 3/8 vs. Penn State

Prediction: 14-6

Michigan State Spartans – 19-5, 10-3 – After starting the year 9-0 in conference the Spartans have dropped three of their last four, including a 71-67 stunner last night at home to Indiana. Their remaining stretch is absolutely brutal, too. Five of their final seven games are against teams currently in the top 25, plus they have to go to Illinois, who is one of the most mercurial teams out there.

Of the top six I think the Spartans could fall off the most. They need to at least split with Michigan, and the rest of the league’s contenders are hoping for at least that as well.

Remaining Schedule: 2/15 at Illinois, 2/18 vs. Purdue, 2/21 at Michigan, 2/26 at Maryland, 3/2 vs. Wisconsin, 3/6 at Iowa, 3/9, vs. Michigan

Prediction: 14-6

Purdue Boilermakers – 19-6, 11-3 – Arguably, Purdue has beaten itself in its three conference losses. The loss at Penn State came with 24 turnovers and generally sloppy play against a team that was good at the time, but has since fallen off. Blown double-digit second half leads against Ohio State and Michigan feel like missed opportunities. Purdue is not the behemoth atop the league like it has been the past two seasons, but it is still very good.

Saturday at home is basically a must-win. In fact, Purdue needs to win its last three home games probably to have any shot. If the Boilermakers get all three of those and at least one on the road it will be in good shape. If it gets two, especially at Michigan State, even better. With the final regular season game coming on a Friday Purdue will be in the clubhouse that entire final weekend.

Remaining Schedule: 2/15 vs. Wisconsin, 2/18 at Michigan State, 2/23 at Indiana, 2/28 vs. UCLA, 3/4 vs. Rutgers, 3/7 at Illinois

Prediction: 15-5

Michigan Wolverines – 19-5, 11-2 – The Wolverines were the big winners last night, picking up a win over their closest competitor and getting Michigan State tagged with a loss by Indiana. They are now in the driver’s seat, but it won’t be easy. Their only other conference loss was at Minnesota on a buzzer beater in overtime.

Michigan’s fate will be shaped largely by the next two games. They have a rivalry game at Ohio State before hosting Michigan State. Michigan has the advantage of being the only team to not lose a home game in conference play. They get four of their last seven at home, too. They are probably going to have to lose two of their last seven to give anyone else a chance for at least a share of the title, and three would be better. They are in control, but the finishing kick is tricky.

Remaining Schedule: 2/16 at Ohio State, 2/21 vs. Michigan State, 2/24 at Nebraska, 2/27 vs. Rutgers, 3/2 vs. Illinois, 3/5 vs. Maryland, 3/9 at Michigan State

Prediction: 15-5

Biggest Spoiler: Illinois Fighting Illini – The Illini are probably out of the running for the league title at 9-6 right now, but they will have a very large say in who does win the thing with four games left against the top four teams currently in the standings. That is after they beat UCLA last night. I feel like Illinois is the team that has one of the highest ceilings of any in the conference, but they have a shocking lack of consistency. They are dangerous to any of those top fou teams.

Biggest Games Left:

2/15 Wisconsin at Purdue

2/15 Michigan State at Illinois

2/16 Michigan at Ohio State

2/18 Purdue at Michigan State

2/18 Illinois at Wisconsin

2/21 Michigan State at Michigan

2/23 Purdue at Indiana

2/24 Michigan at Nebraska

2/26 Michigan State at Maryland

2/28 UCLA at Purdue

3/2 Wisconsin at Michigan State

3/2 Illinois at Michigan

3/5 Maryland at Michigan

3/7 Purdue at Illinois

3/9 Michigan at Michigan State

Although there are six teams with a semi-realistic shot right now, I don’t see the league champ being worse than 15-5. That means UCLA and Maryland are out unless they win out, especially since they play a few of the top contenders down the stretch. Wisconsin at Purdue on Saturday almost feels like an elimination game for the Badgers, too. In the end I think we end up with a tie atop the standings between Purdue and Michigan at either 16-4 or 15-5.

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The Big Ten is full of insanely rich athletic programs. While Purdue is in a good spot compared to many other schools, it still must find a way to compete by planning smarter, not harder.