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Published Feb 16, 2021
Game 22 Preview: Purdue vs. Michigan State
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Brian Neubert  •  BoilerUpload
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PURDUE (13-8, 8-6 B1G) vs. MICHIGAN STATE (10-8, 4-8 B1G)

PURDUE AT MICHIGAN STATE
WhatWhenTimeTVRadio

Big Ten Season

Tuesday

Feb. 16

7 p.m. ET

ESPN

Purdue Radio Network

ABOUT THIS GAME

Purdue looks for a two-game regular season sweep of the struggling Spartans, after the Boilermakers won a thriller 55-54 in East Lansing on Jan. 8, rallying from as many as 17 down to win on Trevion Williams' game-winner in the final seconds. Shortly thereafter, Michigan State went on a COVID-19 pause. It's 2-4 since then and coming off a 30-point home loss to Iowa. The Boilermakers, meanwhile, are coming off a narrow road loss at Minnesota.

NUMBERS AND SUCH
* According to VegasInsider.com (Consensus)
TeamTop 25NETKenPomKenPom — Win %Line*

Purdue

AP:ARV

Coaches: ARV

27

22

75%

-5.5

Michigan State

AP: —

Coaches: —

94

69

25%

+5.5

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ABOUT PURDUE

Purdue dropped from the top 25 on Monday after a two-week appearance following the loss at Minnesota. ... The win in East Lansing on Jan. 8 was the start of Purdue's four-game winning streak that really changed the complexion of this season. ... The Boilermakers are 2-3 since, with a pair of one-possession road losses. ... It wasn't all that long ago that Purdue ranked last in the Big Ten in scoring in conference games; it's now ninth, averaging 67.8 points. ... The Boilermakers are third in the Big Ten in scoring defense, allowing 67.2 points. Only Michigan and Wisconsin have been better. ... Three-point shooting has been a real issue for Purdue, which shoots just 30.4 percent in Big Ten play. It was 2-of-17 at Minnesota and 3-of-24 In the first meeting with the Spartans.

BEST-GUESS STARTERS

C — 50 TREVION WILLIAMS (6-10, 265, Junior)

17.0 PPG • 9.4 RPG • 2.1 APG • 53.1% FG

Coming off a big game at Minnesota, Williams again meets up with a program he's enjoyed success against. In Round 1 with Michigan State, Williams dominated the second half, capped by his game-winner, and finished with 26 points. Purdue needed him that night as its guards struggled and he delivered in a big way. From a personnel perspective, Michigan State will be hard-pressed to match up with him.

F — 0 MASON GILLIS (6-6, 230, Redshirt Freshman)

5.1 PPG • 4.0 RPG • 31.3% 3-PT

The redshirt freshman is built for Purdue-Michigan State sorts of games. His physical and competitive demeanor have been valuable for the Boilermakers this season, along with his offensive rebounding, his post-entry ability and the fact he's been making threes lately, too. Had Purdue held on vs. Minnesota, he'd have been one of the heroes for the triple he buried with two minutes left, extending the lead to five.

G — 2 ERIC HUNTER JR. (6-4, 170, Junior)

8.8 PPG • 24.4% 3-PT • 3.0 APG • 87.5% FT • 15 STL

Michigan State really gave Purdue's guards problems in East Lansing, with their physical defense. The Boilermakers have seen it now, though. Hunter made a slew of jumpers at Minnesota, giving Purdue some added scoring punch it would love to see continue.

G — 5 BRANDON NEWMAN (6-5, 195, Redshirt Freshman)

9.7 PPG • 3.6 RPG • 44.2% 3-PT • 95% FT

Like Hunter and all of Purdue's other guards, Newman struggled against the Spartans in the first meeting, but did a solid job defensively on Aaron Henry. Over Purdue's last three home games, he's 9-of-12 from three-point range.

G — 23 JADEN IVEY (6-4, 200, Freshman)

8.6 PPG • 3.4 RPG • 1.7 AST

Ivey's coming off a really difficult game at Minnesota, where he was just 1-of-8, following up his 20-point game vs. Northwestern prior. Michigan State will make things tough on him, but he's probably a safe bet to rebound against the Spartans.

ROTATION

C — 15 ZACH EDEY (7-4, 285, Freshman)

5.6 PPG • 4.1 RPG • 1.3 BLK

Edey was outstanding at Minnesota, continuing his second-half-of-the-season surge. Should it continue vs. Michigan State, the Spartans will have a huge matchup worry on their hands. Edey played well against them the first time around.

G — 55 SASHA STEFANOVIC (6-5, 200, Junior)

8.3 PPG • 3.0 RPG • 1.7 APG • 32.7% 3-PT

Still working his way back into form, Stefanovic now realizes this wasn't going to be easy, if he didn't already. His bout with COVID-19 has set him back. Purdue wants to get him more minutes — and more shots — but in his two games back, he's yet to make a field goal and was scoreless at Minnesota.

G — 11 ISAIAH THOMPSON (6-1, 160, Sophomore)

3.6 PPG • 51.7% FG • 50% 3-PT

Thompson's been one of Purdue's most efficient shooters all season, but just isn't getting many opportunities.

F — 1 AARON WHEELER (6-9, 205, Junior)

2.5 PPG • 3.4 RPG

Wheeler's season-and-a-half-long shooting slump has continued. He's taking quality threes, but he's now missed his last 15.

G — 25 ETHAN MORTON (6-6, 215, Freshman)

Purdue still wants to get Morton more involved, which is easier said than done right now, given the Boilermakers' depth and the magnitude of these games. He did carry eight minutes against the Spartans earlier in the season.

C — 4 EMMANUEL DOWUONA (6-10, 245, Sophomore) (O)

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ABOUT MICHIGAN STATE

The Iowa loss was one of the Spartans' worst ever, an 88-58 drubbing in which Iowa made 13 threes and needed just 11 minutes to open a 20-point lead. ... Michigan State has real offensive challenges, one of the worst units in the Big Ten thus far. The Spartans sit last in the conference in effective field goal percentage, per KenPom; second to last in three-point percentage; third to last in turnover percentage; and second to last in overall offensive efficiency. ... Michigan State's scored 70 or more points only three times since Christmas, twice in wins over Nebraska and once in a loss at Iowa. ... The Spartans are averaging only 63.7 points, more than only Maryland and Nebraska, and bottomed out with a 37-point game in a 30-point loss at Rutgers earlier in the season. ... Michigan State's a solid defensive team, though, and gave Purdue real problems in the first half of the first meeting, after which the Boilermakers had only 16 points. ... The Spartans have been plagued by youth and a lack of established options at center and point guard, two very Important positions, obviously. The COVID shutdown didn't help either.

BEST GUESS STARTERS

F — 0 AARON HENRY (6-6, 210, Junior)

14.3 PPG • 5.6 RPG • 3.5 AST • 1.5 STL

Michigan State's best player, the versatile forward was kept in check the first meeting between these two teams, as Newman did a particularly solid job defending him. Henry scored 13 points, including an important basket in the final minute, but didn't impact the game as much as he's capable.

F — 20 JOEY HAUSER (6-9, 220, Senior)

10.4 PPG • 6.8 RPG • 33.3% 3-PT

The concern with Hauser will always be that he'll get hot from three-point range and create problems for Purdue's size in the frontcourt. Hauser has played at the center position at times this season, and that's helped Michigan State offensively, that it would be a lot for Michigan State to ask of him defensively in this game in particular.

F — 30 MARCUS BINGHAM JR. (6-11, 225, Junior)

2.8 PPG • 2.1 RPG • 1.5 BLK

Bingham started the Iowa game at center. Considering how that game went and how much Tom Izzo has tinkered with his lineups this season, don't be surprised if there are changes here again.

G — 3 FOSTER LOYER (6-0, 175, Junior)

4.4 PPG • 2.4AST • 32.7% 3-PT

Loyer started the Iowa game at point guard, where Michigan State's been searching for an answer all season (and it's now mid-February). Considering how that game went and how much Tom Izzo has tinkered with his lineups this season, don't be surprised if there are changes here again. Loyer has reportedly been bothered by a sore shoulder.

G — 1 JOSHUA LANGFORD (6-5, 200, Senior)

9.6 PPG • 2.4 AST • 36.5% 3-PT

One of the scoring threats Purdue will have to most concern itself with, the veteran guard is a dangerous jump-shooter the Boilermakers will have to chase through screens and meet at the catch best they can.

ROTATION

F — 25 MALIK HALL (6-7, 225, Sophomore)

5.0 PPG • 4.8 RPG

His stats may not reflect it all that much, but Hall gives Michigan State some scoring punch in the frontcourt. He can score a variety of ways and even though he's not shooting threes all that well this season, he can.

C — 15 THOMAS KITHIER (6-8, 230, Junior)

3.1 PPG • 2.8 RPG • 66.7% FG

Part of Michigan State's merry-go-round at center, Kithier will log minutes against Williams and Edey. Purdue will want to keep him off the offensive glass.

G— 11 A.J. HOGGARD (6-3, 220, Freshman)

2.8 PPG • 2.0 AST

The freshman may get another extended opportunity for point guard minutes. He was the starter last time these two teams met. He played a Big Ten-season-high 26 minutes that night. He hasn't played nearly that many since, though Michigan State's COVID pause probably affected its players differently.

F — 44 GABE BROWN (6-8, 210, Junior)

7.4 PPG • 53.1% FG • 44.7% 3-PT

The Spartans' best three-point shooter by percentage, Brown was 3-of-5 vs. Iowa.

G — 2 ROCKET WATTS (6-2, 185, Sophomore)

8.1 PPG • 2.9 AST

The talented guard has been battling the flu. Though that's better than the alternative, it could limit him at Purdue.

C — 34 JULIUS MARBLE (6-8, 225, Sophomore)

3.9 PPG • 2.3 RPG

Marble logged eight minutes against Purdue in the first meeting, and scored four points in that time.

C — 22 MADY SISSOKO (6-9, 235, Freshman)

1.0 PPG • 2.1 RPG

The freshman center plays sparingly, but Michigan State might need all its big bodies to play on Tuesday night.

THREE KEYS FOR PURDUE
OFFENSIVE ASSERTIVENESSTRANSITIONTOUGHNESS

Purdue's guards are going to have to be strong with the ball and assertive in their actions, because Michigan State took them out of their offensive flow for much of the game in East Lansing. The bigs will of course want to keep doing what they did last time vs. MSU.

As always, but especially vs. Michigan State, Purdue needs to keep the Spartans out of the open floor by limiting turnovers and the long rebounds that come from low-percentage threes. You can't give a struggling offensive team easy ones.

This isn't a prototypical Michigan State team, but one would be negligent to not account for the possibility that the Spartans fight like hell after an embarrassing loss. These are always physical games, and Tom Izzo's one of the best at getting his teams to foam at the mouth. Purdue should be ready to match it.

PREDICTION: PURDUE 66, MICHIGAN STATE 60

Michigan State's down, and probably won't be down long. This is an opportunity for Purdue to kick the Spartans while they're down. More importantly, a chance to get an important win and maybe build some momentum back up after a pair of narrow road losses lately.

The Spartans shouldn't be taken lightly regardless of their record, but their offensive limitations are very real, and their lack of experience and certainty at the most important positions on the floor — point guard and center — are real hindrances.

Purdue ought to win this game, but keep in mind what it took for the Boilermakers to beat the Spartans last time. It's not like Purdue was the markedly better team that night.

We just don't know If Michigan State can score enough to pull a win like this one right now.

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