Game 28: Purdue vs. Michigan

Date: Saturday, Feb. 22, 2020

Time: 2 p.m. ET

Venue: Mackey Arena (West Lafayette)

TV: ESPN

Radio: Purdue Radio Network

Purdue Particulars: Roster | Schedule | Statistics

More: Purdue primer and GoldandBlack.com coverage

Michigan Particulars: Roster | Schedule | Statistics

GoldandBlack.com in-game updates: @GoldandBlackcom | @brianneubert

Purdue's in desperation mode as far as the NCAA Tournament is concerned, likely needing to win each of its three final home games, at least. The Boilermakers had a chance to lock up their place in the field the past few weeks, and seemed poised to after winning at Indiana, but have lost their last three since, including Tuesday night's 69-65 loss at Wisconsin.

Michigan's a virtual lock for an at-large bid, and looked the part Wednesday in a win at Rutgers, the first team this season to win at the RAC.

The Wolverines won the first meeting between these two teams in Ann Arbor, but it took two overtimes and an injury to Purdue big man Matt Haarms that kept him out of the second half and both OTs for the Wolverines to weather Trevion Williams' 36 points and 20 rebounds and a streak of second-half scoring from Isaiah Thompson.

A key dynamic: Michigan forward Isaiah Livers is questionable for this game after missing the Rutgers game due to an injury he suffered against Indiana. He didn't play in the first meeting with Purdue, either.

• In Purdue's 84-78 loss at Michigan (box score) earlier this season, Trevion Williams recorded one of the finest individual efforts of the college basketball season, making 16-of-28 shots, scoring 36 and grabbing 20 rebounds, mostly head to head against one of the league's better big men, Jon Teske. Michigan never really double-teamed the post; afterward Coach Juwan Howard said, "Those 36 points, he scored those on me," suggesting Michigan's plan to try to take away Purdue's shooters, letting Williams go one-on-one, might be something he'd do differently in hindsight.

Now, that chance comes. Does Michigan go one on one with Williams again, in Mackey Arena, where Purdue tends to shoot better than it does on the road?

More: Trevion Williams' approach to Michigan rematch

Purdue tweaked its starting five again for the Wisconsin game, swapping out Williams for Matt Haarms. Considering Williams' success against Michigan the first time around, one would think Purdue would like some first-few-minutes touches for Williams to feel Michigan out with that matchup.

• Purdue's three-game losing streak is its longest of the season and longest since 2018, when consecutive narrow losses to Ohio State, Michigan State and Wisconsin wound up costing the Boilermakers a second straight Big Ten title.

The Boilermakers haven't lost four in a row since 2013-14, a disastrous season they closed by losing their last seven.

• Senior Jahaad Proctor had scored 15 points in three of four games prior to going scoreless at Wisconsin on four shots.

• Purdue is now 10th in the Big Ten in field goal percentage defense and three-point defense, as opponents are shooting 43.1 percent overall and 34.2 percent from long range.

• During the three-game losing streak, Purdue's opponents are 35-of-77 from three-point range, good for 46 percent.

• Purdue's a 66.5-percent-shooting team from the foul line in Big Ten play, better than only Rutgers and Nebraska.

Leading scorer Trevion Williams is shooting 45.8 percent on 12 more attempts than the player, Jahaad Proctor, with the second-most attempts. Nojel Eastern, for whom the foul line has been a career-long struggle, has trended upward for the second straight year as the season has gone on. He's shooting 65 percent in Big Ten play after opening the season 1-for-11 through 11 games.

Michigan Particulars: Roster | Schedule | Statistics

• Michigan's the No. 2 scoring offense in the Big Ten, averaging 73.6 points per league game. But the Wolverines have also been better on defense than they get credit for, 17th nationally in efficiency by KenPom, though terribly vulnerable in the low post.

Michigan hasn't allowed 70 points since Jan. 22, a span of eight games.

• Point guard Zavier Simpson averages 13.9 points and a league-best-tying 7.1 assists per game.

• Perhaps the scariest matchup for Purdue vs. Michigan may be this: Michigan can really shoot from the perimeter from its frontcourt, especially the 4, where Aleem Ford's five threes were just the difference at Wisconsin.

If Livers plays, he's a 39-percent three-point shooter in Big Ten play, albeit just six games. Overall — the more relevant number since he's missed so much Big Ten action — he shoots 45.9 percent, and that includes 5-of-8 vs. Oregon, 3-of-6 vs. Oregon, 4-of-7 vs. Creighton and so on during Michigan's non-conference season. He was 2-of-4 vs. Indiana in the game he was hurt in, 2-of-5 vs. Michigan State two games prior.

For the whole season, Livers is Michigan's leading scorer, averaging 13.3 points over 16 games. He can not only shoot, but drive off closeouts.

If Livers doesn't play, Michigan still has Brandon Johns, who's merely third in the Big Ten with a three-point percentage of 45 percent on 40 attempts, i.e. more than enough volume to be relevant.

You can't really say now's the time for Purdue, because the time started some time ago. Of these two teams, Purdue should be the desperate team, so we'll see what desperate mode looks like for this team. Beyond that, Purdue is a better team at home than not, and Matt Haarms' availability at the defensive end is a plus over the outcome of the last meeting between these teams. But if Isaiah Livers plays, one more significant defensive headache. Purdue should have won that first game vs. Michigan. That in itself suggests it stacks up well against the Wolverines, and with homecourt, that's always an advantage. But this could be a revealing game for Purdue, a look into its competitive makeup. It can go one of two ways.

GoldandBlack.com Prediction: PURDUE 72, MICHIGAN 68

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