BIG TEN PLAY
Date: Sunday, Dec. 8, 2019
Time: 5 p.m. ET
Venue: Mackey Arena (West Lafayette)
TV: TN
Radio: Purdue Radio Network
Purdue Particulars: Roster | Schedule | Statistics
More: Purdue primer and GoldandBlack.com coverage
Northwestern Particulars: Roster | Schedule | Statistics
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ABOUT THIS GAME
Both teams open Big Ten play for the December portion of the conference slate, the Boilermakers looking at an opportunity to ease Into conference play with a home game against the 4-3 Wildcats, followed by next weekend's trip to struggling Nebraska.
The Boilermakers are coming off their biggest win of the young season and one of their biggest regular-season non-conference wins probably ever, a 69-40 Big Ten/ACC Challenge rout of fifth-ranked and defending national champ Virginia in Mackey Arena.
Against the Cavaliers, Purdue opened with a different lineup, playing big men Trevion Williams and Matt Haarms together and swapping out defensive stalwart Nojel Eastern for shooter Sasha Stefanovic.
While Matt Painter admits matchups could guide his hand In the future regarding those lineup dynamics, they paid off in a big way vs. Virginia, as Stefanovic scored 20 points — including three early three-pointers — and the two big men each played well. Painter said Friday he'd "probably" stick with the new starting five for Northwestern.
Northwestern is off to what you can call an uneven start.
A projected lower-rung team in the Big Ten this season after a forgettable season a year ago, the Wildcats have already lost home games to Division I transitional program Merrimack and Radford. But, it's also beaten high-major Providence (the Friars beat Purdue in a private scrimmage prior to the season), routed Bradley in Fort Myers and just won big at Boston College.
PURDUE BOILERMAKERS (5-3)
ABOUT PURDUE
• Since early-December Big Ten games started in 2017, Purdue is 3-1 in them, including 2-0 in Mackey Arena.
• Maybe the Virginia game was Purdue's pivot point offensively. Granted, the Cavaliers play a totally different style of defense than VCU and Florida State, against whom turnovers were Purdue's problem, but Virginia may be the finest defensive program in college basketball and came in ranked first nationally in efficiency.
After scoring 59 vs. VCU then just 60 in the overtime loss to FSU, Purdue put up 69 points — which at scale against Virginia may as well have been a hundred — and turned the ball over only seven times despite playing with distinct aggressiveness. Purdue often shot quick — as it was instructed to do when opportunities presented themselves — but it was also particularly assertive in attacking in transition and off the dribble.
NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS (4-3)
Northwestern Particulars: Roster | Schedule | Statistics
ABOUT NORTHWESTERN
• Northwestern has struggled to make shots, only shooting about 31 percent from three, but did ride 9-of-20 three-point shooting to Its win at BC.
• Offensively, Northwestern has been well balanced in terms of productivity, led by sophomore forward Miller Kopp. The Wildcat small forward Is shooting 44 percent from long range, and about half his shots are threes.
Meanwhile, Northwestern has high hopes for 6-10 4 man Pete Nance, the son of long-time NBA player Larry Nance. Nance Is tall, long and skilled and averaging nearly 12 points and eight rebounds, but he's shooting sub-40 percent from the floor, in part because he shoots a lot of threes and is making about a third of them.
As with Virginia, if Northwestern can make threes from its frontcourt, that may be a challenge for Purdue when it's playing big.
• If a lacrosse match happens to break out, then Purdue may have a real problem on its hands, because Northwestern's Pat Spencer is a stud, a four-time All-American in the sport at Loyola (Maryland) who grad-transferred to Northwestern to finish his college career on a basketball court.
The 6-foot-3 guard was a big addition for Chris Collins, averaging 11 points and 4.4 assists. He scored 23 against Bradley in Florida, making all three of his threes.
• Defensively, Northwestern has played zone about a third of the time, man the rest, but also mixed in some full-court trapping. How they approach defending Purdue obviously remains to be seen.
The Wildcats are 81st nationally in efficiency on defense, per KenPom, and have forced opponents deeper into shot clocks than almost anyone in college basketball, as is also Virginia's way. Northwestern doesn't force many turnovers, or at least It hasn't to this point.
BOTTOM LINE
Northwestern is pretty limited, one of the most limited teams in the Big Ten, and if Purdue guards the way it's been guarding and doesn't turn the ball over, its advantages should be amplified and they should end the evening 1-0 in the Big Ten.
GoldandBlack.com Prediction: Purdue 70, Northwestern 57
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