Opponent View: Illinois at Purdue
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Illinois is making progress defensively, with a young but athletic group that has held opponents to 24 in back-to-back weeks.
But the offense is a different story, struggling with inexperienced quarterbacks and an extremely young offensive line.
We get more of the story from Doug Bucshon of OrangeandBlueNews.com for Opponent View:
GoldandBlack.com: Illinois (2-6) is undergoing a big rebuild without — seemingly — a clear end in sight. Is Lovie Smith comfortable? Or is it possible a change could be made after the season?
Bucshon: "No, it’s not possible that a change will be made after Year 2 of Lovie Smith’s tenure. Athletic Director Josh Whitman expressed confidence in Lovie this week and said he trusts in the rebuilding process. While no one is happy with a 2-6 record, the coaching staff and administration feel they are on the right path and will eventually get over the hump.
"Upgrading the talent pool is going to take time. The 2017 recruiting class was a good start and a foundation to build on. Illinois has started as many as 10 true freshmen this season. Now, Lovie needs to string together more solid recruiting classes and build depth. While most people around the program did expect the team to be more competitive this year, Lovie Smith will be given time to recruit to his system and put his own stamp on the program. While the jury is out, two seasons isn’t enough time."
GoldandBlack.com: The Illinois offense has struggled for various reasons, injuries, inexperience, poor execution. What should its foundation be for the rest of the season?
Bucshon: "It’s been combination of youth up front, inability to get the ball to play-makers, too many turnovers and sub-par quarterback play.
"The Illini are now starting four freshmen on the offensive line. While they have size and talent, it’s hard to compete in the rugged Big Ten with that much youth in the trenches. The lone upperclassman, guard Nick Allegretti, is having a great season. As a group they are losing one-on-one battles at the point of contact, however; battles they expect to win after a couple of years in the strength program. It’s going to take time to learn and grow. They’ve made some strides. The Illini’s 3.84 yards per carry during Big Ten play ranks 6th in the conference.
"Baby steps.
"Key injuries to have played a role. Freshman running back Mike Epstein is out for the season with a foot injury. He added some much needed big-play capability to the offense. Ra’Von Bonner, another freshman running back, has missed time with a concussion. Wide receiver Mike Dudek, a former freshman All-American, has been in and out of the lineup. But more than anything has been the inconsistency of the quarterbacks and their inability to get the ball to play-makers in space. Illinois’ passing efficiency is by far the worst in the Big Ten."
GoldandBlack.com: Will the quarterbacks — Jeff George and Cam Thomas — continue to rotate? What does each have to do to have success?
Bucshon: "Lovie Smith would prefer one quarterback to get all the snaps, but they don’t have confidence in either George or Thomas in every game situation and every sub package. We expect a two-quarterback system again this week vs. the Boilermakers. Thomas is expected to take over the reins full-time at some point, so getting him game experience is a goal.
"At this point in their development, George is a more accurate passer while Thomas adds the dimension of athleticism to the position. Thomas led Illinois in rushing last week in the loss to Wisconsin. He can turn potential negative plays into positive yardage with his feet. For both players, taking care of the football is the No. 1 concern. The pair accounted for three Illinois turnovers against the Badgers: Two Thomas interceptions and a George fumble. The Illini have a negative turnover margin, and nine of their 12 giveaways have been interceptions. They’ll need to put the ball in the air to have a chance against Purdue, so it could get interesting."
GoldandBlack.com: The defense has given up only 24 points in back-to-back weeks. Is it improving? If so, why?
Bucshon: "They have made progress and have improved the run defense, a major Achilles heel over the last several seasons. They don’t always get stops, but this young defense will fly around, make big hits and take the ball away. The Illini have forced 13 fumbles this season to lead the nation in forced fumbles per game (1.83).
"A key factor has been getting linebackers Del’Shawn Phillips and Dele’ Harding and safety Patrick Nelson back from injury. Each missed all or of part of three games. The Illini held Wisconsin to its fewest total yards of the season last week, a major milestone for this defense. Illinois is now a middle-of-the-pack defense in the Big Ten, which wasn’t expected.
"Some players to watch on the Illini defense are Phillips, freshman safety Bennett Williams and defensive tackle Jamal Milan. Williams has emerged as star in the Illini secondary and real find as a two-star prospect out of California. Milan got off to a slow start this season, but has come on in recent weeks. He’s a physical presence and gets off the ball well. Phillips posted a team-high 14 tackles and two tackles for loss against Wisconsin. He now ranks No. 5 in the Big Ten in tackles per game."
GoldandBlack.com: What do you think we'll see on Saturday? Keys? Prediction?
Bucshon: "I expect continued improvement from the Illinois defense and a competitive game, but we just haven’t seen enough from the Illini offense to believe it can generate enough points to grab a Big Ten win on the road. It should be a physical Big Ten contest and an interesting battle between two coaches who are in the rebuilding process for their respective schools.
"Ball security is the biggest key for Illinois, along with red zone offense. A struggling offense must take advantage of every opportunity it has to put points on the board. Thomas threw a red-zone interception last week that proved very costly. Overall, Illinois has scored just 11 touchdowns in 23 red zone chances his season (47.83 percent), worst in the Big Ten. The Illini also need a solid game from Kendrick Foster, the senior running back who led Illinois in rushing a year ago.
"Illinois enters this game as a 14-point underdog, and I think they cover but come up a touchdown short. The Cannon trophy stays in West Lafayette this year."
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