Ten questions hanging over the season. We try to answer each one
MORE: Loss of non-conference games could benefit Purdue's won-loss record | Safety, flexibility, control were guiding forces to Big Ten schedule change | It's official: Big Ten punts non-league games, will play conference-only | Ten-game, Big Ten-only schedule seems likely for 2020
The Big Ten rocked the college football world last week by announcing it was dumping the three non-conference games for each member school and playing a 10-game, league-only schedule. The Pac-12 quickly followed, while the Big 12, ACC and SEC continue to mull the decision to play league-only games in 2020.
Purdue trimmed Memphis, Air Force and Boston College from its non-conference schedule. The Boilermakers’ Big Ten slate includes home games with Rutgers, Northwestern, Iowa and Wisconsin, along with road games at Nebraska, Michigan, Minnesota, Illinois and Indiana.
Now, the questions begin.
"Prep time has been compromised and I know our guys aren’t anywhere near where they would need to be," a Power Five assistant told GoldandBlack.com. "I think if we play, you’re going to see freshmen play in very large numbers."
Despite the less-than-ideal conditions, hope still floats that a season can be played despite the coronavirus gaining steam.
"The confident talk might just be to keep everyone in a positive mood as we keep trying to move forward with the season," said the Power Five assistant.
Questions hang over the season. Here are 10 big ones.
Q: Will the Big Ten schools already scheduled to play each other remain the same?
A: I think we can count on division games still being on schedules. In fact, some early reports indicate the front portion of schedules will be loaded with division games in hopes they get played and a champ could be determined in advance of a possible shutdown because of a virus outbreak.
Q: How will the league determine which Big Ten school to add to each school’s schedule, and will current crossover opponents stay the same?
A: I’m sure rivalries will try to be accommodated, but there aren’t many that cross divisions: Indiana-Purdue; Michigan-Minnesota. Other than that, the league may try to find peer schools that are “competitively equal” to play each other.
Q: Will the Big Ten pre-schedule a handful of games for all schools to remain nimble to move opponents around, essentially building the schedule as it goes along?
A: That’s the feeling I get. I think the Big Ten will schedule just the first two or three games for each school. By not being locked in to later dates—because who knows how the pandemic will look in October and November—the Big Ten will be flexible in its ability to schedule in response to how teams and campuses are impacted by the virus.
"I have heard 'flexibility' as being a big reason to go to a conference-only schedule," said a Power Five assistant. "One decision-maker (conference commissioner) with input from the 14 head coaches."
Q: Could the Big Ten devise a schedule structure that includes two weeks on, one week off, allowing additional nimbleness for schools that may need makeup dates if games scheduled earlier are postponed because of virus issues?
A: I think you’ll see some form of this staggering, with the Big Ten hoping to play 10 games over 13 or 14 weeks. With schools playing, perhaps, two weeks on, one week off—with sets of schools on different rotations—the Big Ten will have built-in make-up dates if needed. Who knows? A school may lose a raft of players to quarantine and have to skip a week. With this schedule model, it presumably will be easier to find an opponent later in the season.
"There are gaps in the season where you can move things around," said a Power Five assistant. "Makes it easier for Commissioner (Kevin) Warren to make a decision on something and not have to deal with other schools outside the conference."
Q: Is there any chance the Big Ten could play more than 10 games? Nebraska A.D. Bill Moos has stated he would like to play a 12-game slate in 2020.
A: This seems like pie-in-the-sky dreaming. But, who knows? Maybe things will be sailing along for the nation deep into the fall in regards to controlling the virus spread and the Big Ten will feel confident trying to squeeze in two more games. More games, more money, right?
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Q: What will happen to the Big Ten title game?
A: Guessing it still will be played … if the Big Ten reaches its finish line having played 10 league games each. And the virus hasn't run amok.
Q: Will there be bowl games?
A: We are getting WAY ahead of ourselves now. But, that’s what we do in the media: speculate. My guess: Every effort will be made to conduct the playoff. It may even be expanded beyond four schools. And perhaps college football will be able to squeeze in the “selection committee bowls.” But I find it difficult to think we will have, say, postseason games like the Armed Forces Bowl, Quick Lane Bowl, New Orleans Bowl and yes, as much as I hate to admit it: The Cheez-It Bowl.
"I think (the postseason) is the last thing on the decision-makers minds right now," said a Power Five assistant. "Certainly, they will have to figure out the bowl piece for sure. With the economy in a bad position, I’m not sure all the bowls will be in a position to be played."
Q: If there is a postseason, how will bowl-eligibility be determined?
A: Good question. Let’s say a 5-5 record makes you bowl-eligible in the Big Ten in 2020. Typically, six wins in a 12-game season is the benchmark.
"My guess is if there is only a 10-game season, the magic number would probably be five," said a Power Five assistant.
Q: If all hopes of playing this fall fail, is a spring season a real possibility?
A: Yes, it’s still on the table. Why wouldn’t it be? These are desperate times that call for desperate measures. And nothing screams “DESPERATION” more than a spring football season. Money has to be made. Bills have to be paid. A season of no football would be a financial catastrophe on campuses.
It if happens, it probably would be six or eight games. And that also could lead to the 2021 fall season starting later … and maybe being a game or two shorter. Maybe. Bottom line: A spring season is bad optics, asking “student-athletes” whose welfare the NCAA and so many others stress is important playing 20 or more games in one calendar year as unpaid, non-unionized personnel.
Another thing: Would upperclassman stars like Clemson QB Trevor Lawrence and Ohio State QB Justin Fields even take part in a spring season with the NFL Draft in April/May of 2021? Would Rondale Moore take a snap?
"I think moving to the spring is an absolute last resort and probably wouldn’t be a full season," said a Power Five assistant. "Lots of issues to overcome with the NFL Draft, limited recovery time for players before the ‘21 season, seniors not playing because of getting ready for the NFL, etc."
Q: Will the season start on time?
A: From what I hear, that's the hope ... Sept. 5 or Sept. 12. But maybe it's a good idea to kick the can down the road. I think we should get all the students back on campus to see if there are any big flare-ups--and adjust accordingly with health protocols. By October, schools should have a good grasp on what life is like under this "new normal," making it a good time perhaps to start playing football games--safely.
So many questions to be answered against a backdrop of a growing pandemic that casts doubt over whether the season will be played. Many feel by the end of July or August 1, the picture on the 2020 season will come into sharper focus ... at least a little bit. But know this:
"It’s not good if we continue to get big dominoes to drop like we’ve seen the past 7-10 days," said a Power Five assistant.
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