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GoldandBlack.com Preview: NCAA Tournament Round 3 — Tennessee

More: Purdue 2018-19 roster | 2018-19 men's basketball schedule

More ($): Fearful Predictions — Purdue's 2018-19 season | Burning Questions

Thursday, March 28, 2019 • 7:27 p.m. ET | KFC Yum! Center (Louisville) | TV: TBS | Radio: Purdue Radio Network

In-game updates: Twitter.com — @GoldandBlackcom | @brianneubert

Our premium board game thread and pre-game thoughts can be found roughly an hour prior to tip-off

ABOUT THIS GAME

• The South Region's No. 3 seed, Purdue looks to reach the Elite Eight for the first time since 2000, after beating Old Dominion 61-48 (box score) and Villanova 87-61 (box score) last weekend in Hartford. A win would send the Boilermakers to their first regional final under Matt Painter.

• The South's 2 seed, Tennessee has been one of college basketball's best teams all season, finishing sixth in the final AP poll and carrying 31 wins into Louisville.

This Volunteer team is almost identical to the one that beat Purdue 78-75 in overtime at last November's Battle 4 Atlantis, almost two full seasons ago now. (box score) (Purdue is almost entirely different, however.)

• This is a matchup of two of the most efficient offenses in college basketball, per KenPom's offensive rating. Tennessee ranks third nationally and Purdue fifth. Purdue's defense is 27th and Tennessee's 33rd, making for as evenly matched a game, on paper, as there can be.

Wednesday coverage from Louisville: Tennessee presents matchup challenges | Scouting Reports | Notebook | Brandon Brantley feature | Press conference transcript

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NUMBERS AND SUCH
Team AP Coaches NET KenPom KenPom - Win%

PUR

13

13

12

9

51%

TENN

6

5

5

10

49%

#3-SEED PURDUE BOILERMAKERS (25-9, 16-5 B1G — co-champions)

Roster | Schedule | Statistics

Projected Rotation

32 C - Matt Haarms (7-3, 250, So.)

Seemingly on the verge of establishing himself as Purdue's next outstanding center, Haarms has been no small part of the Boilermakers' success this season, and this postseason especially. He's playing at a very high level defensively and on the glass, in particular.

24 F Grady Eifert (6-6, 220, Sr.)

Eifert draws two-time SEC Player-of-the-Year Grant Williams on defense, but the Boilermaker senior's track record for processing scouting reports, carrying out assignments and thriving defensively with nuance is very good. Here's guessing Eifert will at the very least make things uncomfortable for Williams. And he'll have help.

14 G/F Ryan Cline (6-6, 195, Sr.)

Cline's been one of the best shooters in college basketball this season, an outstanding offensive player overall — in three postseason games, he's averaging better than five assists, with just two turnovers in 100 minutes — and the quiet confidence he's brought to this Purdue team has been part of its collective persona.

20 G Nojel Eastern (6-6, 220, So.)

Purdue's defensive ace draws a big, big wing in this one, as it's likely that Eastern will defend 240-some-pounder Admiral Schofield, who used to basically be a power forward, but is now a 40-plus-percent three-point shooter in the backcourt.

3 G Carsen Edwards (6-1, 200, Jr.)

Coming off his stuff-of-legend game against Villanova in the Round of 32, Edwards has talked this week about being "patiently aggressive" and emphasizing decision-making. That's always been the most important part of the puzzle for Edwards, because decision-making and shot selection aren't different things. He's played an outstanding NCAA Tournament to this point but says he's done nothing different than when he was struggling to make shots during the regular season.

KEY PLAYERS

50 C Trevion Williams (6-9, 280, Fr.)

Had Williams been able to finish a couple times around the basket or make a free throw, we'd be talking about him as having made a significant impact against Villanova. He did some positive things, but couldn't finish. Rebounding will be important for Purdue against Tennessee, as it is in every game for Purdue, and that's where Williams' impact might most likely be felt.

1 F Aaron Wheeler (6-9, 200, R-Fr.)

Though the Villanova game was a bit of a mixed bag due to turnovers and fouls, Wheeler has been making an impact for Purdue lately, making threes and plays in the open court alike. In the postseason he's averaging six points in less than 10 minutes per game, but he's also been tagged with 12 fouls in just 29 minutes. Thing vs. Tennessee might be the defensive matchup, as Williams might be a real handful for him.

2 G Eric Hunter (6-3, 170, Fr.)

Coming off a trip to Hartford that had to do wonders for his confidence due to his last-second fill-in role vs. Old Dominion after Eastern was hurt, Hunter has trended upward as his freshman season has wound down.

55 G Sasha Stefanovic (6-4, 195, R-Fr.)

Stefanovic has now made 41 percent of his threes for the season, but has struggled from the foul line the past few weeks.

12 F/C Evan Boudreaux (6-8, 220, Jr.)

Some luxury it is for Purdue to basically have such a proven player as its No. 3 center.

#2-SEED TENNESSEE VOLUNTEERS (31-5, 15-3 SEC)

Roster | Schedule | Stats

G - 1 Lamonte Turner (6-2, 195, Jr.)

Turner is the lowest-percentage three-point shooter among Tennessee starters, but shed prior struggles last time these two teams met to make the biggest shot of the game, the three that forced overtime. Turner averages close to 11 points per game.

G - 5 Admiral Schofield (6-6, 241, Sr.)

Formerly an undersized 4 type, Schofield has developed into a legitimate wing, with a forward's body and a guard's skills. He's nearly a 42-percent three-point shooter and averages almost 16-and-a-half points for the season, with the sort of frame that can allow him to barrel over or through smaller defenders. Nojel Eastern doesn't figure to qualify.

F - 2 Grant Williams (6-7, 236, Jr.)

The SEC Player-of-the-Year the past two seasons, Williams averages 18.8 points on 57-percent shooting and seven-and-a-half rebounds per game. He's not the biggest power forward in college basketball, but he's very strong and can score either backing up to the basket or facing it, with range extending beyond the three-point line. He'll move inside to the 5 at times, too.

G - 0 Jordan Bone (6-3, 180, Jr.)

Bone may not get the acclaim Williams or even Schofield do, but there are those that believe he might be as important as anyone. He's extremely fast and the catalyst of a Tennessee offense that's Michigan State-like in its desire to run. The point guard averages 13.6 points, with a 3-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio. He's a 35-percent three-point shooter on high volume and makes his free throws at a high rate.

C - 11 Kyle Alexander (6-11, 222, Sr.)

Tennessee's center's length stands out. He's not a major scorer, but efficient on his touches, shooting 62 percent from the floor, and a threat on the offensive glass, averaging two-and-a-half offensive rebounds per game And, as Purdue knows well, he can make the occasional three. He made a big one in overtime against the Boilermakers last season, the "backbreaker" as Matt Painter called it afterward.

RESERVES

G - 21 Jordan Bowden (6-5, 193, Jr.)

Bowden will play starter-type minutes off the bench — he just played 35 in the overtime win against Iowa — and shoot a lot of threes, of which he's making 36-and-a-half percent.

F - 10 John Fulkerson (6-9, 197, So.)

Fulkerson is Tennessee's backup big, a tall and wiry center.

THREE THINGS
TRANSITION  REBOUNDING PHYSICALITY

Tennessee wants to get in the open floor, the sort of offense that has given Purdue problems at times this season. It may not be as fast as Minnesota, but it will try to play that way. Solid offensive possessions are a must for the Boilermakers because of it.

Obviously, the boards — especially the offensive variety — have generally been pretty kind to Purdue, and that's been true in this NCAA Tournament. Keeping it that way might be non-negotiable for Purdue to keep to its M.O. of beating people in the possessions column.

This is part of rebounding, but also Purdue's defense. Tennessee has some big, strong guys and it's going to be up to the Boilermakers at times to move them off their spots and out of their comfort zones without fouling.

PREDICTION: PURDUE 75, TENNESSEE 73

On paper, this looks like a coin toss. Tennessee has had a better season than Purdue, but Purdue has had a just-as-good January-until-now. If Carsen Edwards keeps playing — playing, not necessarily scoring — the way he's played this NCAA Tournament, the Boilermakers are going to be difficult to beat, and in such an evenly matched game, we'll give a slight nod to the team that just boat-raced the defending national champ over a team that was good enough to go up 25 on Iowa, then not-so-good enough to almost lose.

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