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Published Jan 7, 2019
GOLDANDBLACK.COM PREVIEW: Purdue at #6 Michigan State
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Brian Neubert  •  BoilerUpload
GoldandBlack.com staff
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More: Purdue 2018-19 roster | 2018-19 men's basketball schedule

More ($): Fearful Predictions — Purdue's 2018-19 season | Burning Questions

Tuesday, Jan. 8, 2019 • 9 p.m. ET | Breslin Center (East Lansing, Mich.) | TV: ESPN2 | Radio: Purdue Radio Network

In-game updates: Twitter.com — @GoldandBlackcom | @brianneubert

Our premium board game thread and pre-game thoughts can be found roughly an hour prior to tip-off

ABOUT THIS GAME

• Matt Painter called the Spartans the "most physical" team he's seen in the Big Ten since he's been Purdue's coach.

More: Michigan State's physicality will push Purdue, maybe literally

• The Spartans average 87.1 points for the season, tops in the Big Ten, and 83.8 through four conference games, also tops in the league. In conference games, Michigan State is shooting 52.7 percent from the floor, which is astronomical, and holding opponents to just 36.9-percent shooting, also best in the league.

The Spartans lead the league in rebounding margin, blocked shots, assists and assist-to-turnover ratio.

Michigan State's coming off an 86-77 win at 14th-ranked Ohio State, after its previous Big Ten wins came over Rutgers, Iowa and Northwestern.

The Spartans' two losses this season were to then-No. 1 Kansas on a neutral floor in Game 1, then at Louisville in overtime in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge.

• Michigan State has played the past two games without junior guard Joshua Langford due to an ankle injury and he's been ruled out for the Purdue game, as well. Part of the Spartans' strong junior class, Langford averages 15 points per game.

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NUMBERS AND SUCH
TeamAPCoachesNETKenPomKenPom - Win%

Purdue

RV

22

17

23%

Michigan State

6

5

7

4

77%

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PURDUE BOILERMAKERS (9-5, 2-1 B1G)

Roster | Schedule | Statistics

Projected Rotation

12 F/C Evan Boudreaux (6-8, 220, Jr.)

Now starting at the center position for Purdue, but playing as part of a three-man timeshare in the role, Boudreaux must be an important presence for Purdue on the glass, but also hang with Nick Ward defensively. He's often been asked to front the post in hopes of disrupting entry, because he lacks typical center size. It could be of great benefit to Purdue if Boudreaux's ability to play on the perimeter offensively could make Ward guard away from the rim, but he hasn't made a three-pointer since Dec. 1 at Michigan, though on only four attempts. He tried 12 through the first five games of the season.

24 F Grady Eifert (6-6, 220, Sr.)

Eifert is rugged and active on the glass, but Michigan State plays big at the 4, and Eifert will give up size and power at his position on the glass.

14 G/F Ryan Cline (6-6, 195, Sr.)

Purdue is going to be really hard-pressed to win this game if it doesn't shoot well from long range. Cline would almost have to be part of it if it does. You can bet Michigan State has his name underlined on its scouting report, however.

20 G Nojel Eastern (6-6, 220, So.)

A defender of game-changing potential for Purdue, Eastern gets a marquee matchup against Spartan point guard Cassius Winston, one of the best in college basketball at his position. It's best-on-best in that sense. Whether it's Eastern or any other Boilermaker guard or even 4, it's imperative that Purdue challenge Michigan State's post entries.

3 G Carsen Edwards (6-1, 200, Jr.)

Edwards has been very good lately, making shots, but also getting to the basket, getting to the foul line and making generally sound decisions. The need for all of it is amplified against an elite opponent, but also because it's on the road, and against this particular opponent, in this venue, decision-making comes to the forefront, because low-percentage shots and turnovers can blow up in Purdue's face real quick. Also, it goes without saying that Purdue has to defend at a high level against the Big Ten's No. 1 scoring team, and when Edwards is active and engaged on D, the Boilermakers tend to be considerably better, obviously.

KEY PLAYERS

32 C - Matt Haarms (7-3, 250, So.)

Haarms has played his best sustained basketball of the season since he started coming off the bench, coincidence or not. Michigan State at the Breslin Center is a different animal, however. The past two games, Haarms is 8-of-11, with 26 points, 13 rebounds and five blocks in 42 minutes. He's given Purdue a scoring threat on the interior, improved Purdue's defense and drawn a number of fouls.

1 F Aaron Wheeler (6-9, 200, R-Fr.)

Michigan State's going to challenge Wheeler physically for certain. He'll give up considerable size and strength against anyone he encounters at the 4. But if he can make shots from the perimeter and run the floor, he might have some advantages himself. Wheeler has been playing well lately, and his best games this season have all been Big Ten games, for whatever reason.

2 G Eric Hunter (6-3, 170, Fr.)

The freshman guard has come a long way since the start of the season, playing his best basketball lately, as seems to be true for all Purdue's young players. This will be the fastest, most physical game he's played in, though, in the most unfriendly environment, and he'll have to guard Cassius WInston at times. So this will be an experience.

55 G Sasha Stefanovic (6-4, 195, R-Fr.)

After a four-game dry spell, the redshirt freshman is 3-of-6 the past two games from three-point range.

50 C Trevion Williams (6-8, 220, Jr.)

This is a matchup that could spell an expanded role for Williams, Purdue's best bet to match Michigan State's muscle around the basket. The freshman has produced every chance he's gotten the past few weeks and is very much trending upward.

No. 6 MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS (13-2, 4-0 B1G)

Roster | Schedule | Stats

G - 5 Cassius Winston (6-1, 185, Jr.)

One of the best point guards in college basketball and one of the most complete for sure, Winston averages just under 18 points, more than seven-and-a-half assists, defends well and makes 45 percent of his threes. Purdue will need to disrupt him best it can in ball screens, but also keep him out of transition any way possible.

F - 44 Nick Ward (6-9, 245, Jr.)

The Big Ten's premier back-to-the-basket scorer, Ward went through the NBA process in the spring and came back a better player, in better shape, seemingly more disciplined. Purdue's been able to get him in foul trouble in the past. Easier said than done this season, but the Boilermakers will want to make him work on defense, too. He averages 16-and-a-half points on 66-percent shooting and gets fouled as much as anybody in the conference. He's not a great foul shooter, but volume of opportunities makes up for it to some extent.

G - 20 Matt McQuaid (6-5, 200, Sr.)

With Michigan State playing without Joshua Langford, McQuaid is the Spartans' best wing-scoring threat. He's making nearly 45 percent of his threes.

F - 0 Kyle Ahrens (6-6, 210, Sr.)

The veteran has been starting lately, but hurt his ankle at Ohio State, and that could affect his availability Tuesday night.

F - 25 Kenny Goins (6-7, 230, Sr.)

Goins isn't much of a scorer – though he did make a crucial shot against Purdue last season — but is one of the Big Ten's top rebounders, averaging 9.3 per game. He's sort of the face of a Michigan State team defined by its grit and experience.

KEY PLAYERS

F - 23 Xavier Tillman (6-8, 245, So.)

Tillman's averaging almost eight rebounds per game, off the bench. He's big and powerful and mobile and plays really hard. He makes 70 percent of his shots, which is to say dunks, put-backs and layups.

F - 11 Aaron Henry (6-6, 210, Fr.)

The freshman — Hunter's close friend from high school and grassroots ball — has been a key reserve at times for Michigan State, a versatile forward who plays with energy, can handle the ball and make threes. He may become more important if Ahrens can't play.

G - 13 Gabe Brown (6-7, 210, Fr.)

The freshman doesn't play much, but when he does, his big-time shooting stroke must be respected. He's making 53 percent of his threes, and his size makes him a tough cover.

G - 3 Foster Loyer (6-0, 170, Fr.)

Michigan State's backup point guard averages just seven minutes per game, as the Spartans ride Winston.

OUT - 1 Joshua Langford (6-5, 210, Jr.)

Michigan State's third-leading scorer is a significant loss, but it's not held the Spartans back much, the results suggest.

THREE THINGS
FIGHT LIKE HELLDECISION-MAKINGFOULING

On the glass, in post defense, whatever it may be, Purdue may not be able to match Michigan State's physicality on the interior, but it can't get consumed by it, which would seem within the realm of possibility for a team that's not seen this sort of thing this season.

Make no mistake: While Michigan State is big and physical, it's still Michigan State and that means it wants to run whenever it can. If you take bad threes or turn the ball over or break down in transition defense, their M.O. is to make you pay.

Easier said than done, but staying out of foul trouble looms large for Purdue, against Ward especially, but also Winston, who's a great foul shooter, and against MSU's size on the glass. It's not just the foul trouble, but the easy points it could hand the Spartans if they hit the bonus quick.

PREDICTION: MICHIGAN STATE 77, PURDUE 70

Purdue's playing well right now, looking like a team that's coming along well, but its road results haven't been expunged from the record, and this is the most daunting environment it's seen. That on top of all else that goes into this game, whether it's Michigan State's brawn on the interior or its outstanding point guard play. This might require Purdue's most poised performance of the season, one of its best defensive performances and one of its best shooting outings. That's a lot to ask.

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