GOLDANDBLACK.COM PREVIEW: #12 Purdue vs. Penn State
More: Purdue 2018-19 roster | 2018-19 men's basketball schedule
More ($): Fearful Predictions — Purdue's 2018-19 season | Burning Questions
Saturday, Feb. 16, 2019 • 4 p.m. ET | Mackey Arena (West Lafayette) | TV: BTN | Radio: Purdue Radio Network
In-game updates: Twitter.com — @GoldandBlackcom | @brianneubert
Our premium board game thread and pre-game thoughts can be found roughly an hour prior to tip-off
ABOUT THIS GAME
• On Jan. 31, Purdue won the first meeting between these two teams, 99-90, in State College, but it took a game-tying bucket at the end of regulation to force overtime, which the Boilermakers then dominated.
Carsen Edwards scored 38 points and Ryan Cline made 6-of-7 threes, but it nearly wasn't enough to overcome. Penn State shot 41 free throws, grabbed 18 offensive rebounds and got 24 points from Lamar Stevens to remain winless in the Big Ten. It's since won at Northwestern and is coming off a home upset over Big Ten co-leader Michigan.
• Ryan Cline is 15-of-27 from three in six career meetings with Penn State, but in the past four games — all highly competitive Purdue wins — he's 13-of-20. He was key in the Boilermakers' OT win in State College two seasons ago. He made two threes in overtime to lead Purdue to an exhausting win. Last year, he made two threes in a close Boilermaker win in Mackey Arena, and then this season, obviously his 20 points were key to another Purdue win.
| Team | AP | Coach | NET | KenPom | KenPom - Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
PUR |
12 |
11 |
11 |
9 |
87% |
|
PSU |
— |
— |
69 |
59 |
13% |
#12 PURDUE BOILERMAKERS (17-7, 10-3 B1G)
Roster | Schedule | Statistics
Projected Rotation
50 C Trevion Williams (6-9, 280, Fr.)
The freshman big man has been such an important piece to Purdue's success, but the Boilermakers need him on the floor and established at the offensive end. Foul trouble has been an issue of late. Purdue has to keep Penn State off the offensive glass best it can, and Williams' presence on Mike Watkins would be helpful.
24 F Grady Eifert (6-6, 220, Sr.)
Purdue's going to have to a good job defending Lamar Stevens, and the 4 man will be a big part of it. Stevens was only 4-of-13 from the floor in State College, but Purdue couldn't keep him off the line, where he was 14-of-17.
14 G/F Ryan Cline (6-6, 195, Sr.)
This may be Cline's last meeting with Penn State and he'll haunt Pat Chambers' dreams at night if he has another big game against the Nittany Lions.
20 G Nojel Eastern (6-6, 220, So.)
Purdue needs to shore up the defensive glass, and to do that, Eastern is a big part of the effort. That said, Purdue still got worked on the boards at the Bryce Jordan Center even with its point guard grabbing 10 rebounds. Few teams can match his physical presence as a rebounder. Defensively, Purdue will want to do a better job keeping Rasir Bolton and Myles Dread contained after they totaled eight threes in the first game, but you wonder too if Purdue put any thought into putting its best defender on Stevens.
3 G Carsen Edwards (6-1, 200, Jr.)
The game in State College was one of those nights for Purdue's All-American, but scored 38 on 50-percent shooting, but also made timely plays, and perhaps as importantly got the Boilermakers got off to a good start with an early boost of hot shooting.
KEY PLAYERS
32 C - Matt Haarms (7-3, 250, So.)
Haarms didn't have his best game at Maryland, and Penn State brings an opportunity to rebound — in more ways than one — against another physical frontcourt. Haarms loomed large down the stretch and in OT against Penn State the first game.
1 F Aaron Wheeler (6-9, 200, R-Fr.)
The redshirt freshman has been such a valuable floor-stretching weapon for Purdue on offense at times, but he's just 2-of-13 from three since he was 3-for-3 vs. Michigan State five games ago. It's a safe bet that when he breaks out, it'll happen at home, where he's had his biggest shooting games.
2 G Eric Hunter (6-3, 170, Fr.)
Hunter's not carrying huge minutes, but it's been three straight games now in which he's been turnover-free. That's pretty decent for a freshman playing point guard during his first go-around in the Big Ten.
55 G Sasha Stefanovic (6-4, 195, R-Fr.)
In the first meeting with Penn State, Stefanovic made a couple first half jumpers in a game in which, obviously, every point wound up mattering.
12 F/C Evan Boudreaux (6-8, 220, Jr.)
Lost in all else that happened was Boudreaux giving Purdue some solid first-half minutes at Maryland against a difficult matchup.
PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS (7-13, 2-11 B1G)
C - 24 Mike Watkins (6-9, 254, Jr.)
One of the best rebounders in the Big Ten, Watkins is a big physical and aggressive presence on the glass who Purdue has historically had difficulties with.
F - 11 Lamar Stevens (6-8, 230, Jr.)
G - 23 Josh Reaves (6-5, 214, Sr.)
G - 5 Jamari Wheeler (6-1, 170, So.)
G - 2 Myles Dread (6-4, 215, Fr.)
The rookie guard made four threes against Purdue the first time around and just put five on Michigan.
KEY PLAYERS
G - 13 Rasir Bolton (6-2, 180, Fr.)
F - 21 John Harrar (6-9, 243, So.)
G - 0 Myreon Jones (6-3, 170, Fr.)
| REBOUND | CLOSEOUTS | FOULS |
|---|---|---|
|
Every game is different, but this almost got Purdue beat last time. Itdoesn't have to win this column, but it can't get blasted in it either. Penn State is not a high-percentage shooting team, but almost out-volumed Purdue last time with second and third chances. |
The Nittany Lions shot over their percentage last time and Purdue won't want to let history repeat itself. There will be doubles on Lamar Stevens, and when Purdue gets in scrambles on D or after offensive rebounds, it has to get to shooters. |
Penn State is not going to get the same whistle it got in State College, but that wasn't just refs' preferences. That was Purdue struggling to rebound and contain the ball. It bailed Penn State out countless times. Also Purdue needs Trevion Williams foul trouble-free. |
PREDICTION: PURDUE 76, PENN STATE 69
Penn State's probably not going to shoot like it did in State College and surely isn't going to shoot 40 free throws in Mackey Arena. Purdue must be on high alert and bring something close to its best on defense, but the Boilermakers have been too good at home this season to think this may be a likely upset.
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