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Published Feb 18, 2019
GOLDANDBLACK.COM PREVIEW: #15 Purdue vs. Indiana
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Brian Neubert  •  BoilerUpload
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More: Purdue 2018-19 roster | 2018-19 men's basketball schedule

More ($): Fearful Predictions — Purdue's 2018-19 season | Burning Questions

Tuesday, Feb. 19, 2019 • 7 p.m. ET | Assembly Hall (Bloomington, Ind.) | TV: ESPN2 | Radio: Purdue Radio Network

In-game updates: Twitter.com — @GoldandBlackcom | @brianneubert

Our premium board game thread and pre-game thoughts can be found roughly an hour prior to tip-off

ABOUT THIS GAME

• Purdue's looking for a regular season sweep of its rival after winning Round 1, 70-55 (box score), exactly one month ago in Mackey Arena.

Purdue and foul trouble combined to hold Romeo Langford to just four points, and IU was only 4-of-20 from three and 7-of-18 from the foul line, while Carsen Edwards scored 20 with seven assists and Nojel Eastern finished with 10 and 10 rebounds and led Purdue's defensive effort on Langford.

Purdue comes in tied with Michigan and Michigan State in the loss column atop the Big Ten, having just rebounded from a loss at Maryland with a win at home over Penn State.

Some vulnerabilities have come up lately.

Maryland's pressure contributed to Purdue shooting less than 17 percent in the second half in College Park; Penn State's token full-court pressure contributed to the Boilermakers uncharacteristically committing a season-high 23 turnovers.

Purdue played against Penn State largely without key contributor Trevion Williams, who's been ill.

• Indiana's season has gone horribly awry, as it's now lost 10 of 11, the only win, amazingly, coming at Michigan State on a day in which the Spartans simply couldn't make a shot of any kind.

That win snapped a seven-game losing streak, but hopes of that being a launching pad for a turnaround were quickly dashed, as IU then lost close games at home to Iowa and Ohio State — though it took some pretty extraordinary late-game three-point shooting from the Hawkeyes and Buckeyes to do it – then got blasted this weekend at Minnesota, a loss Coach Archie Miller called a "dealbreaker," before hinting at "drastic" changes.

That being said, the ship has probably now sailed on IU making the NCAA Tournament, a team with as good an out-of-conference résumé as anyone in the league — wins over Marquette and Louisville — and an elite road win in the Big Ten now probably needing to win the Big Ten Tournament to get in.

• Indiana really struggles offensively, averaging more points in Big Ten play (63.2) than only Northwestern and shooting a league-worst 27.4 percent from three. A team whose coach, Archie Miller, has lamented its lack of ball movement averages fewer assists than anyone else, as well.

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NUMBERS AND SUCH
TeamAPCoachNETKenPomKenPom - Win%

PUR

15

13

11

10

65%

IU

51

47

35%

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#15 PURDUE BOILERMAKERS (18-7, 11-3 B1G)

Roster | Schedule | Statistics

Projected Rotation

32 C - Matt Haarms (7-3, 250, So.)

Haarms played well against Indiana last time and was outstanding against Penn State. And he may match up better defensively than Trevion Williams against Juwan Morgan anyhow. Foul trouble wouldn't be ideal, though, and Morgan and De'Ron Davis are capable of inflicting it.

24 F Grady Eifert (6-6, 220, Sr.)

Not sure what more can be said about Eifert, who's made so many big plays in big moments for Purdue and added so much substance. He's been an essential element to its success.

14 G/F Ryan Cline (6-6, 195, Sr.)

People seem to be getting even more aggressive in coming at Cline on defense, a distinction he's obviously earned. Now, Purdue must effectively play off it when it happens.

20 G Nojel Eastern (6-6, 220, So.)

Eastern was tremendous on defense against Langford in Game 1, but that was truly a total team effort as well. He's coming off an uncharacteristic six-turnover game against Penn State, a blip on the radar until proven otherwise.

3 G Carsen Edwards (6-1, 200, Jr.)

Since the resumption of Big Ten play mid-season, the leagie's leading scorer is shooting 38 percent overall on the road with 20 turnovers against just seven assists in five games. Purdue would obviously like to see that trending reversed in Bloomington, which will be an environment more like Michigan State (3-16, four turnovers) or Maryland (8-27) than Penn State or Wisconsin, the two best games Edwards has played on the road in conference play.

KEY PLAYERS

50 C Trevion Williams (6-9, 280, Fr.)

We'll see how much Williams plays, and how effective he is, as he recovers from illness. When he rounds back into form, then Purdue can worry about keeping him out of foul trouble.

1 F Aaron Wheeler (6-9, 200, R-Fr.)

Wheeler's coming off a nice game vs. Penn State, and did make some important contributions, especially as a help defender, against Indiana last time.

2 G Eric Hunter (6-3, 170, Fr.)

Purdue's gotten solid minutes from Hunter most of the season and needs more of the same in his first trip to Assembly Hall.

55 G Sasha Stefanovic (6-4, 195, R-Fr.)

Stefanovic, along with Wheeler, really steadied Purdue in the first half vs. Penn State, the young guard almost single-handedly accounting for the Boilermakers' mid-first half run. He can make shots, but is also affecting games with simple hustle.

#25 INDIANA HOOSIERS (13-12, 4-10 B1G)

Roster | Schedule | Stats

F - 13 Juwan Morgan (6-8, 232, Sr.)

One of the league's best big men, Purdue struggled with Morgan's ability to face the basket and drive and shoot threes from his 5 position, a matchup it's going to have to weather again in Bloomington. Morgan's averaging 14.3 points and 8.6 rebounds in Big Ten play, but capable of even more.

F - 20 De'Ron Davis (6-10, 255, Jr.)

The often-injured big man is healthy and has given IU some low-post scoring punch. His play (12 points, six rebounds) against Michigan State after Morgan was injured was critical for the Hoosiers. Davis has been one of Indiana's bright spots lately. Whether IU starts — or plays — big against Purdue the way it did Minnesota remains to be seen.

G - 0 Romeo Langford (6-6, 215, Fr.)

Langford's averaging better than 17 points per game and his three-point shooting is trending upward of late, but foul trouble plagued him in Mackey and when he was on the floor, Purdue had him figured out, both with Eastern's one-on-one defense and a collective effort that closed off driving lanes throughout the game. When IU started trying to play off the attention Purdue was paying to Langford, the Boilermakers stopped that, too, basically rendering Langford window dressing. He was 2-of-10 from the floor. Needless to say, he will not be encountering foul problems in Assembly Hall.

G - 1 Aljami Durham (6-4, 181, So.)

Durham is obviously a player Purdue's going to have to keep acutely aware of, as he's a 44-percent three-point shooter playing alongside a couple players who command extra attention. Purdue will lose shooters periodically and hasn't always been college basketball's finest closeout team.

G - 11 Devonte Green (6-3, 185, Jr.)

Green is streaky, but the right side of that streakiness can be dangerous. He can create his own shot and can certainly make shots, a 43-percent three-point shooter. Green has been so inconsistent, that whatever changes Miller has in store post-Minnesota could affect him.

KEY PLAYERS

F - 3 Justin Smith (6-7, 227, So.)

An outstanding athlete, Smith did hurt Purdue with jump shots in the first meeting, though that's not necessarily his strength, though the greater concern for the Boilermakers may be keeping him off the offensive glass. He scored 15 — about twice his average — on 7-of-8 shooting in Mackey Arena, maybe his best game of the season.

G - 10 Rob Phinisee (6-1, 182, Fr.)

The freshman point guard has been battling some physical struggles, and is struggling from the floor right now, 8-of-27 the past four games, and hasn't made a three in that span. Purdue's attention may lie elsewhere and with its best defender moving over to Langford, Phinisee may get some good looks. If he knocks them down, that could change the way Purdue defends.

F - 25 Race Thompson (6-8, 228, Fr.)

After being hurt all year, Thompson grabbed five rebounds in seven minutes at Minnesota.

F - 55 Evan Fitzner (6-10, 225, Sr.)

Fitzer was brought in as a grad transfer in part because of his ability to make threes, but he's just 3-of-24 in Big Ten play.

THREE THINGS
TURNOVERSPOISECLOSEOUTS

Obviously. Look, there's no reason to think Purdue's turnovers woes against Penn State are more than a blip, but this is an acute concern no matter what. Indiana struggles to score. It may need help. Purdue can't provide that help.

Leading scorer Carsen Edwards' results in environments like this one at Michigan State and Maryland this season have been a mixed bag, and Purdue lost its head offensively across the board in the second half against Maryland.

IU is a lousy shooting team by percentage this season, but Purdue's been down that road before. If Purdue has to double the post against Morgan and Davis, that means rotations, the need to not let a pedestrian shooting team get its 'head up.'

PREDICTION: PURDUE 69, INDIANA 64

Funny things do happen in this rivalry, but Purdue has had plenty of success in Assembly Hall, and as long as it's not turning the ball over, many indicators would point heavily in its favor. Might come down to threes, though. Purdue needs to shoot something close to its norm and not let Indiana shoot way over its standards.

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